2026 Exhibition Spring Games

[tiger2022]

There were LH hitting outfielders out there but $16 million to take a stroll down memory lane for a washed up SP might have killed those chances to sign those guys 

[gehringer_2]

Tiger O seems to be picking up pretty much where it left off.

I heard Harris say he didn't want them to so over emphasize contact to where it was counterproductive to overall offense, but I hope 26th in team OBP (where they are in ST currently) is at least a little worse than he wanted to see.

[Tenacious D]

Parker Meadows will be fine.  The offense will be fine.

Remember—it’s Spring Training.

[Shelton]

10 hours ago, Edman85 said:

The cost certainty is huge, particularly if you can buy out a couple more years. If you are talking about the aggregate, I disagree.

If you are talking about the Tigers, accelerating AAV when you are currently $5M under the Tax is tough. The time to strike was a couple years ago.

I’m talking about everyone knowing the costs/benefits of doing so, and the real cost to the team of signing a potential star player and ROY candidate with PPI potential before they debut. 
 

I’m not talking about the value and benefits to getting such a deal done (after the player debuts). Like you said the cost certainty can be very nice to have. I don’t really understand why the PPI rules are such that you can’t do these deals in advance, but it’s what it is. 
 

The tigers current potential tax issues are the cherry on top in this case for reasons to wait to get a deal like this done. 
 

Anyway, we all know why these can be good deals for both in the right situation. But I don’t think teams are going to throw away PPI chances and do these deals in the offseason anymore. 
 

 

[Tiger337]

9 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Parker Meadows will be fine.  The offense will be fine.

Remember—it’s Spring Training.

I don't give a crap about spring stats, but there are certainly valid questions to be asked about several of their position players.  

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, Graterol said:

I asked chat gpt to derive the ideal lineup vs RHP and LHP using historical wrc+ splits (or last year in certain cases if it made more sense). Used a rough adjustment for defense. The conclusion was that to optimize each lineup McKinstry would be off the roster. If you add a constraint that each starter rests 15pct of the time, McKinstry would be in and Perez out.

This gave me the idea to ask Claude what the opening day roster should be, based on ZIPS projection for 2026, and this is what it came up with:

Remember that ZIPS is kind of a blunt instrument and doesn't take spring training into consideration, but this ain't a half-bad-looking roster.

Verlander isn't on it because Claude sees him as a starter only, and he is the seventh-best starter according to ZIPS. Interestingly, Reese Olson projected as the #6 starter, behind Drew Anderson from Korea. ZIPS thinks this would be close to a 100-win team even without a projected superstar.

[IdahoBert]

I’m just really tired of this spring training BS where the games are only of theoretical importance and which is only made worse — for me — by the shallow spectacle of the WBC where national super teams compete against squads of semi pros. 

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't give a crap about spring stats, but there are certainly valid questions to be asked about several of their position players.  

OTOH, guys don't have a magic switch they can push to suddenly start seeing and hitting the ball better or getting more guys on the 26th either. Stats don't matter because the numbers from what happened the first couple weeks don'tmatter, but if by the last week or 10 days of ST they are still looking flat, odds are they are still going to be flat come opening day. 

I don't know exactly why but I don't have a good feeling about this team at all this season. Feels like it's going to be Tarik and the 24 dwarfs.

Edited 19 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

OTOH, guys don't have a magic switch they can push to suddenly start seeing and hitting the ball better on the 26th either. Stats don't matter because the numbers from what happened the first couple weeks don'tmatter, but if by the last week or 10 days of ST they are still looking flat, odds are they are still going to be flat come opening day. 

I'd rather look at the major league or even high minor league track records.  For a young player, I suppose strikeout and walk rates might matter in spring training, if they are different from what we've seen in the past.

[chasfh]

Spring training is about working on process, not stats.

[Motor City Sonics]

Hey, Parker Meadows got a hit today.  An actual hit !

[monkeytargets39]

SlickNickShady is hyped

[Tigermojo]

Sean Casey's kid is a center fielder? That does not compute. 

[SoCalTiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

OTOH, guys don't have a magic switch they can push to suddenly start seeing and hitting the ball better or getting more guys on the 26th either. Stats don't matter because the numbers from what happened the first couple weeks don'tmatter, but if by the last week or 10 days of ST they are still looking flat, odds are they are still going to be flat come opening day. 

I don't know exactly why but I don't have a good feeling about this team at all this season. Feels like it's going to be Tarik and the 24 dwarfs.

And if Tarik is just good not Cy Great ........

[Motor City Sonics]

I disagree with this "it's only spring training" narrative.   I don't care what the team's record is, but guys need to start locking in a bit before the regular season starts.   I would say after St. Patrick's Day is the time they need to really start getting into a groove.   As gehringer_2 said, I don't think there's a magic switch that suddenly goes on when they arrive in San Diego.   Especially when you consider the pitching will be a lot better and more consistent once the real season starts.      

[monkeytargets39]

I don’t care about the stats.  I care about how they look.  You can hit .100 for a week or two but still be barrelling up pitches and managing the strike zone well.  There’s a few of our guys who don’t seem to be doing much anything encouraging.

Meadows and Wenceel specifically don’t need to be gifted roster spots if they can’t start showing out well in some capacities.  We finally have enough guys who justify roster spots in spring training to not have to just hope and pray someone who has been inconsistent at best will suddenly flip a switch and be solid.

Same with pitching.  Don’t need to gift bullpen spots to guys who go out there and can’t find the zone at all on some outings or guys who just go throw hittable stuff with no real punch out pitch.  

McGonigle needs to make the team.

Edited 17 hours ago by monkeytargets39

[Sports_Freak]

45 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I don’t care about the stats.  I care about how they look.  You can hit .100 for a week or two but still be barrelling up pitches and managing the strike zone well.  There’s a few of our guys who don’t seem to be doing much anything encouraging.

Meadows and Wenceel specifically don’t need to be gifted roster spots if they can’t start showing out well in some capacities.  We finally have enough guys who justify roster spots in spring training to not have to just hope and pray someone who has been inconsistent at best will suddenly flip a switch and be solid.

Same with pitching.  Don’t need to gift bullpen spots to guys who go out there and can’t find the zone at all on some outings or guys who just go throw hittable stuff with no real punch out pitch.  

McGonigle needs to make the team.

Agreed on Kevin...and, while stats are totally meaningless for established players, they are pretty important for the fringe players and young kids. Max Clark is a good example, he's played himself back to the minors. I really think that if he would have come to camp and tore it up, he would have made the roster. And Meadows? The same, a strong spring would have guaranteed him a spot. With his lack of any offense this spring, his future in Detroit may be in doubt. His defense is great but he has to hit a little bit. Pitching wise, a big surprise (to me) has been Drew Anderson. The guy has been flawless. He may have worked himself up to a #6 starter....so far. 

[Longgone]

52 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Agreed on Kevin...and, while stats are totally meaningless for established players, they are pretty important for the fringe players and young kids. Max Clark is a good example, he's played himself back to the minors. I really think that if he would have come to camp and tore it up, he would have made the roster. And Meadows? The same, a strong spring would have guaranteed him a spot. With his lack of any offense this spring, his future in Detroit may be in doubt. His defense is great but he has to hit a little bit. Pitching wise, a big surprise (to me) has been Drew Anderson. The guy has been flawless. He may have worked himself up to a #6 starter....so far. 

Every year fans go up and down with ST stats, thinking someone is winning or losing a job, and then the season starts and they forget all about it. Spring training stats don't matter, the samples are too small, the talent too variable and the players are making adjustments and ramping up. Mechanical adjustments that correct weaknesses matter, increased velo and improved pitches matter, health after an injury matters, etc. Stats, they just don't matter. They may or may not reflect an underlying issue, but staff will be well aware of it whether the stats reflect it or not.

[Sports_Freak]

46 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Every year fans go up and down with ST stats, thinking someone is winning or losing a job, and then the season starts and they forget all about it. Spring training stats don't matter, the samples are too small, the talent too variable and the players are making adjustments and ramping up. Mechanical adjustments that correct weaknesses matter, increased velo and improved pitches matter, health after an injury matters, etc. Stats, they just don't matter. They may or may not reflect an underlying issue, but staff will be well aware of it whether the stats reflect it or not.

Parker Meadows agrees....from Toledo. 😅😅

[Longgone]

41 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Parker Meadows agrees....from Toledo. 😅😅

Unless there's something seriously off with his swing or his health, the Tigers would be worse off. But you won't know that from his batting average.

[Sports_Freak]

4 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Unless there's something seriously off with his swing or his health, the Tigers would be worse off. But you won't know that from his batting average.

His defense may keep him on the team, we'll see. But my point wasn't about the established players or pitchers. Yes, they are making tweaks that may cause their small sample size numbers to look bad but I meant the fringe players and the kids. If Kevin was really struggling in his spring at bats, it may have meant starting the season in Toledo. As it is, he looks like he may be our starting SS. Opposite for Clark, the kid looks totally overmatched. For these types of players, spring results really do matter. Small sample size or not.

[Longgone]

12 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

His defense may keep him on the team, we'll see. But my point wasn't about the established players or pitchers. Yes, they are making tweaks that may cause their small sample size numbers to look bad but I meant the fringe players and the kids. If Kevin was really struggling in his spring at bats, it may have meant starting the season in Toledo. As it is, he looks like he may be our starting SS. Opposite for Clark, the kid looks totally overmatched. For these types of players, spring results really do matter. Small sample size or not.

You can be the exact same talent and go 1 for 20 or 10 for 20, proves nothing, especially early in the spring. Coaches know who has ability despite the stats, fans have only stats to go by and so assign them way too much importance.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

You can be the exact same talent and go 1 for 20 or 10 for 20, proves nothing, especially early in the spring. Coaches know who has ability despite the stats, fans have only stats to go by and so assign them way too much importance.

We have this discussion every spring. And every spring, back end of the bullpen arms who do well in ST games make the team. The same with the last bench utility spots. And then, after a few weeks, some changes are made, guys get called up and other guys are demoted. Most teams have competition for a couple of spots. 

[Longgone]

2 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

His defense may keep him on the team, we'll see. But my point wasn't about the established players or pitchers. Yes, they are making tweaks that may cause their small sample size numbers to look bad but I meant the fringe players and the kids. If Kevin was really struggling in his spring at bats, it may have meant starting the season in Toledo. As it is, he looks like he may be our starting SS. Opposite for Clark, the kid looks totally overmatched. For these types of players, spring results really do matter. Small sample size or not.

Hypothetical for you. You clone Kevin McGonicle. Exact same player in every way, and alternate them through the first ten games of spring training. One goes 1 for twenty and makes several errors in the field, and the other goes 10 for 20 and is flawless at short. Which one goes north and which one to AAA?

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Hypothetical for you. You clone Kevin McGonicle. Exact same player in every way, and alternate them through the first ten games of spring training. One goes 1 for twenty and makes several errors in the field, and the other goes 10 for 20 and is flawless at short. Which one goes north and which one to AAA?

Hinch is not above riding a hot hand even if he knows the player will be gone by the ASB. Once the season starts, short term results are still results, you take 'em if you can get 'em. The great baseball debate has always been: are players streaky or is it just stochastic noise? The answer is 'Yes'.  The performance of the human machine is the combination of hundreds of factors that just might all align once in a guy's life for a week or month or 3 or even one season and then maybe never be seen again. Other guys will turn in year after year of consistency. OTOH, BaBIP buries a tremendous amount of true performance in its noise generation. But both things are true, always have been. And good teams take advantage of understanding it all.

Edited 10 hours ago by gehringer_2