Detroit Pistons Offseason: 2026

[HugoD]

On 5/30/2026 at 9:05 PM, Deleterious said:

It isn't the enemy of the good.  It's the enemy of the bad, even terrible.  Not only will teams not care if he shoots it, they will encourage it.  Teams score over 1 point per possession, they would love if Duren is taking shots where he will shoot in the low 40's and score .8 per shot.  That is a huge w in for any defense.

 

That's over the top.   Everyone knows the math on 3s v, mid ranges, but those are meta numbers.  In this case, as was mentioned, .8 is great than 0.  Also, there are other dynamics at play in how different actions can be enhanced by new options available.  There are more and more coaches who are reintroducing the mid range element to take advantage of how other teams are constructed.  It's like arbitrage.   fyi - JD will be getting closer to $40 than $30.

[Betrayer]

3 hours ago, buddha said:

from the athletic:

"There’s a general sense around the league, as things stand today, that negotiations likely began far apart and will eventually come to a middle ground in the ballpark of a five-year, $200 million to $220 million deal — landing Duren an average annual value of $40 million to $44 million. "

The good news is this is just another story. I've heard reports of 36M, 37M, 40M, and now this one for 44M. This is a lot of guessing. My only hope is that it's closer to 35 than 40M. I'd obviously prefer 25-30M, where he actually belongs, but we all know that's not happening.

I do love how defenders of this always justify it with, "He's only 22 so he'll get better", but nobody can offer up an answer for WHAT he'll get better at. What skill does he have that we're betting on him improving? Dunking? He's shown zero ability to be a stretch 5 and you don't suddenly learn defensive instincts and gain perimeter footspeed. I'd be more willing to bet that this season was his ceiling than that he will suddenly turn into a Embiid, Jokic, or even Gobert.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Betrayer said:

I do love how defenders of this always justify it with, "He's only 22 so he'll get better", but nobody can offer up an answer for WHAT he'll get better at. What skill does he have that we're betting on him improving? Dunking? He's shown zero ability to be a stretch 5 and you don't suddenly learn defensive instincts and gain perimeter footspeed. I'd be more willing to bet that this season was his ceiling than that he will suddenly turn into a Embiid, Jokic, or even Gobert.

Right. Between last year and this year he got better at things he was already doing, improving from here is a tougher lift. And FTM, the same is true for Ausar.

[buddha]

2 hours ago, Betrayer said:

The good news is this is just another story. I've heard reports of 36M, 37M, 40M, and now this one for 44M. This is a lot of guessing. My only hope is that it's closer to 35 than 40M. I'd obviously prefer 25-30M, where he actually belongs, but we all know that's not happening.

I do love how defenders of this always justify it with, "He's only 22 so he'll get better", but nobody can offer up an answer for WHAT he'll get better at. What skill does he have that we're betting on him improving? Dunking? He's shown zero ability to be a stretch 5 and you don't suddenly learn defensive instincts and gain perimeter footspeed. I'd be more willing to bet that this season was his ceiling than that he will suddenly turn into a Embiid, Jokic, or even Gobert.

i too think this may be duren's ceiling.  but he's so young, he might be able to keep his athleticism for the next 7-8 years.  they are betting on improved defensive awareness with time.  that is not a huge leap, imo.

otoh, the foot speed is likely to never be better than it is now.  he is as strong as an ox now, i cant see that getting better.  its already good.  he's not going to get any taller.

what can he improve?  a jump shot and defensive awareness.  will he get there?  your guess is aa good as mine, but i have a feeling were going to pay $250 million to find out.

[Shinzaki]

We don't know if Duren can shoot a three...he's never (I think) tried one.  Not even in College.  Maybe it's a hidden skill

[Deleterious]

I don't consider this to be a credible rumor.  But I laughed pretty hard at someone's response to this.

Quote

We already know Cade likes passing to him.

 

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

We don't know if Duren can shoot a three...he's never (I think) tried one.  Not even in College.  Maybe it's a hidden skill

BR says he attempted 2 his rookie year, 4 the next, didn't hit any and hasn't tried since

[Deleterious]

Four years in and he hasn't even attempted to develop a three point shot.

You don't pay that guy 

[Deleterious]

A list of everyone with an AAV of at least $40 million.

[buddha]

what's the worst contract on that list?

paul george?  jimmy butler?  sabonis?  lavine?  embiid?

[Deleterious]

I think it's Fox. 

$55 million per year until 2029 to score 18 ppg and shoot 33% from three . 

He is making more than Cade.

[Deleterious]

After Fox my answer works be every center on that list not named Jokic.

[RatkoVarda]

Sasser's option is for $5.2M; I assume they are not picking that up.

[Deleterious]

23 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Sasser's option is for $5.2M; I assume they are not picking that up.

It was already picked up in October. Rookie extensions are picked up two seasons ahead of time. 

This October they will pick up Ron's extension and it will be for the 2027-28 season 

[Betrayer]

20 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Right. Between last year and this year he got better at things he was already doing, improving from here is a tougher lift. And FTM, the same is true for Ausar.

His FG% actually went down.

He simply had more usage, taking 11.5 shots per game instead of the 7 shots he took the year before when we had Beasley and THJ chucking instead.

Rebounds were flat. Assists went down. Stocks went down. Turnovers went up.

So, basically JD is getting paid for usage, not improvement.

[Deleterious]

The trade proposals that have LeVert/Sasser/Holland and a couple of picks in the 20's getting Trey Murphy need to stop.  

That is not a good package.  If NO did put him on the market, a lot of teams would beat that.  The first to come to mind is OKC.  A good player locked into a dirt cheap contract the next 3 years is exactly what an expensive team like the Thunder need.  They have the players and draft capital to make it happen.

[buddha]

The only way they get Murphy is if Duren is involved.

[Deleterious]

The price for Murphy will be Ausar + salary filler.  Someone like like LeVert plus a pick, maybe multiple if it's a bidding war. 

Honestly, they should do it if they end up giving Duren $40 million a year.

[Deleterious]

Watched a clip of a Denver sports talk radio host.  He was going over the Nuggets salary cap and the Peyton Watson situation. 

Without boring everyone with the details.  He said keeping Watson would cost Denver between $185-220 million just in luxury tax payments.  

He would be my #1 target this summer for Detroit.  Try to work a sign and trade involving Paul Reed and Duncan Robinson.  Denver could cut both guys and only have to pay Robinson $2 million.  Detroit could send Denver the $2 million in cash to cover that plus a pick.  

That assumes Watson is interested.  He was born in LA so the Lakers have been rumored to be interested.  

[NYLion]

23 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Four years in and he hasn't even attempted to develop a three point shot.

You don't pay that guy 

He can't even shoot outside of 5 feet. Imagine paying two guys who can't hit a three or even a mid range jumper over $70m/yr? That's what we're likely facing with Duren and Ausar.

[NYLion]

20 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Watched a clip of a Denver sports talk radio host.  He was going over the Nuggets salary cap and the Peyton Watson situation. 

Without boring everyone with the details.  He said keeping Watson would cost Denver between $185-220 million just in luxury tax payments.  

He would be my #1 target this summer for Detroit.  Try to work a sign and trade involving Paul Reed and Duncan Robinson.  Denver could cut both guys and only have to pay Robinson $2 million.  Detroit could send Denver the $2 million in cash to cover that plus a pick.  

That assumes Watson is interested.  He was born in LA so the Lakers have been rumored to be interested.  

I think they'd look to trade Braun or maybe even Murray to fit in Watson rather than trading Watson.

[Betrayer]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

The only way they get Murphy is if Duren is involved.

Weaver drafted a lot of these guys. He gave up future assets to bring in Stew. He traded up for Sasser as well. They have a lot of Weaver's favorites they can dangle. Ideally, I'd love for it to be Duren, but I doubt the organization will do it.

[Deleterious]

Ku had Keith Smith on his podcast.  Smith is a cap expert over at SpoTrac.  Some things he said:

• Pistons are one of the few teams that have a choice to operate under or over the cap
• He expects them to operate as a team over the cap
• If they operate under he said they would probably do that because they have a very specific player in mind
• If they operate under the cap they could open up about $30 million in cap space plus the $9 million room exception.
• That would mean they keep Duren but renounce every other free agent they have.  It means waiving Paul Reed and cutting and probably stretching Duncan Robinsons remaining guaranteed money.  
• Robinson in a trade, only counts for the money he is guaranteed, $2 million.  I didn't know that, and it makes his contract a lot less valuable as a trade chip.
• Smith said the  Pistons have no issues with the apron's this coming season.  Things get tighter next year but are still manageable.  

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

32 minutes ago, NYLion said:

I think they'd look to trade Braun or maybe even Murray to fit in Watson rather than trading Watson.

I can't see them moving Murray.  An all NBA level guard under 30 who averaged 25 and 7 while shooting 43% from three.  

Braun could be moved but his new extension and bad season drops his value a bit.  

The biggest problem Denver will have making these types of trades.  They can't bring back any salary.  Not many teams have the space to eat $20+ million salaries and if they send salary back to Denver, it doesn't help the Nuggets.  Plus, to get teams to eat salary you often have to include draft picks.  Denver has no tradable first round picks.