2026 Trade deadline

[monkeytargets39]

And just like that, Brandon Woodruff is going on the shelf.  Sell them Skubal for their entire farm system

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, monkeytargets39 said:

And just like that, Brandon Woodruff is going on the shelf.  Sell them Skubal for their entire farm system

You're being facetious here (I believe?), but I do think the fly in this ointment is the idea that any organization would gladly empty out the top of their farm system for two months of one pitcher, even someone as aces as Skubal. I just don't believe that's how organizations roll anymore, and I posted a good portion of an article here yesterday that discussed that very thing.

I also believe it's too much of an ask for a team to put together a deadline deal that doesn't materially cost us now while also substantially improving our farm system at the same time. I mean, if that's your standard for the deadline, then you might as well start calling for the head of Scott Harris right now, because the chances of him pulling off the kind of deal that returns an two-time All-Star pitcher to help us win this year and a #11 Pipeline outfield prospect to help us be a perennial contender for years into the future is one in something with at least one comma in it. This is where I think the 2024 Flaherty deal may have skewed our expectation for what a successful 2026 deadline should be, in the same way the 2024-25 playoff runs have skewed our perception of just where this organizations stands in the long arc of the current development cycle. (FTR, I think we are still building toward the apex.)

Which begs the question: if you as Tigers GM don't get the kind of three-way deal for Skubal you'd like to see—a deal which, by the way, I'd be more than fine with seeing—do you keep him instead? Or do you take whatever we can get for Skubal, as long as the return is at least marginally better than a comp pick?

[Tiger337]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

I cannot imagine the nuclear level of blowback Scott Harris would have to withstand for trading his ace pitcher while his team is on a 16-game-winning streak and in first place in the Central. But mainly I just wanted to see how committed you were to getting rid of him.

I hope Harris is not basing his decisions on what kind of blowback he gets.  

[monkeytargets39]

45 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 

Which begs the question: if you as Tigers GM don't get the kind of three-way deal for Skubal you'd like to see—a deal which, by the way, I'd be more than fine with seeing—do you keep him instead? Or do you take whatever we can get for Skubal, as long as the return is at least marginally better than a comp pick?

Yeah I was being facetious about Woodruff.  
 

However, from where I sit, if you as a GM can’t get more than a comp pick in value for a stretch run of Tarik Skubal, then you should be canned.  Even if you get a prospect package but you want something a little different—you have those assets to then make another move with.  You also probably are going to be waiting a minimum of 2 years before that comp pick is in Detroit—and that’s if you hit another slam dunk like McGonigle.  More than likely the pick won’t pan out at all.

 

i understand the idea of keeping Skubal for a shot at it and having the comp pick as a consolation prize….but anything other than a title and it’s a massive missed opportunity.  
 

I don’t want to sound pessimistic but when we are talking about winning 12 games in a row to be in first place at the deadline and acting like the bullpen is going to do a u-turn and Tork/Keith/Vierling/McKinstry are gonna figure it out and pitchers wont counter adjust to Lee and we won’t have anymore injuries….it sounds like an Angels in the Outfield storyline.  
 

Cash out on Skubal as long as you can turn a good profit back.  If there’s nothing being offered for him, then keep him I guess.  You’re not gonna convince me that the Dodgers won’t want him to prevent him from going to a competitor, and that teams desperate for a WS won’t give up good value to run Schlittler/Skubal or Misiorowski/Skubal all playoffs.

[SoCalTiger]

Well in my simple mind says that if we are trying to make the playoffs and have a run you certainly do not trade your best pitcher and the only advantage you have over EVERY team in the playoffs. 
 

And if we are trading Skubal then trade everyone else with an expiring contract  

I mean just make a decision but be “All In”   

 

[4hzglory]

9 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

 

 

i understand the idea of keeping Skubal for a shot at it and having the comp pick as a consolation prize….but anything other than a title and it’s a massive missed opportunity.  

 

 

completely disagree from an organizational standpoint.    A playoff run brings in millions of $ this season and the fan interest leads to more millions.  Plus the boost in playoff experience for the players that will still be here.  

 

[chasfh]

18 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Yeah I was being facetious about Woodruff.  
 

However, from where I sit, if you as a GM can’t get more than a comp pick in value for a stretch run of Tarik Skubal, then you should be canned.  Even if you get a prospect package but you want something a little different—you have those assets to then make another move with.  You also probably are going to be waiting a minimum of 2 years before that comp pick is in Detroit—and that’s if you hit another slam dunk like McGonigle.  More than likely the pick won’t pan out at all.

 

i understand the idea of keeping Skubal for a shot at it and having the comp pick as a consolation prize….but anything other than a title and it’s a massive missed opportunity.  
 

I don’t want to sound pessimistic but when we are talking about winning 12 games in a row to be in first place at the deadline and acting like the bullpen is going to do a u-turn and Tork/Keith/Vierling/McKinstry are gonna figure it out and pitchers wont counter adjust to Lee and we won’t have anymore injuries….it sounds like an Angels in the Outfield storyline.  
 

Cash out on Skubal as long as you can turn a good profit back.  If there’s nothing being offered for him, then keep him I guess.  You’re not gonna convince me that the Dodgers won’t want him to prevent him from going to a competitor, and that teams desperate for a WS won’t give up good value to run Schlittler/Skubal or Misiorowski/Skubal all playoffs.

If the Tigers are going for the playoffs, they're going to keep Skubal. On that, I would bet my dollar against your dime.

If the Tigers are going to give up on the season instead, then they might as well trade not only Skubal, but Mize and Flaherty, too, and Torres if they can, for just about whatever they can get that's better than whatever the value of the comp pick would be.

If they're going to sell, they might as well go all the way rather than half-assing it trying to thread a needle with the smallest eye possible, and just go for a full reset of the current situation. They've got a pretty solid foundation of good young players they can build around, so it's not as though they'd have to tear everything down to the studs.

Sell them all or sell nothing. That's what I think the choice probably is. And my guess is that as long as they are within shouting distance of a playoff spot, I think it's going to be sell nothing.

Edited July 18 by chasfh

[NorthWoods]

18 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Cash out on Skubal as long as you can turn a good profit back.  If there’s nothing being offered for him, then keep him I guess.  You’re not gonna convince me that the Dodgers won’t want him to prevent him from going to a competitor, and that teams desperate for a WS won’t give up good value to run Schlittler/Skubal or Misiorowski/Skubal all playoffs.

And since it's immediate help, we seem to be good at C and the rest of the INF.    It needs to be a couple of shots at an impact outfielder and less important pitching.

[NorthWoods]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Sell them all or sell nothing. That's what I think the choice probably is. And my guess is that as long as they are within shouting distance of a playoff spot, I think it's going to be sell nothing.

I don't agree with the fire sale concept.  Sell those you don't think you can sign or those you don't think your future plans.  IOW maybe keep Mize.     But Skubal, Flaherty, Torres, Vierling, McKinstry?  Sure.

[4hzglory]

1 minute ago, NorthWoods said:

I don't agree with the fire sale concept.  Sell those you don't think you can sign or those you don't think your future plans.  IOW maybe keep Mize.     But Skubal, Flaherty, Torres, Vierling, McKinstry?  Sure.

One could argue the opposite if you think you can resign Mize.  If you’re selling anyway, trade him and try to resign him like Flaherty as you wouldn’t get a comp pick anyway.

[4hzglory]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If the Tigers are going for the playoffs, they're going to keep Skubal. On that, I would bet my dollar against your dime.

If the Tigers are going to give up on the season instead, then they might as well trade not only Skubal, but Mize and Flaherty, too, and Torres if they can, for just about whatever they can get that's better than whatever the value of the comp pick would be.

If they're going to sell, they might as well go all the way rather than half-assing it trying to thread a needle with the smallest eye possible, and just go for a full reset of the current situation. They've got a pretty solid foundation of good young players they can build around, so it's not as though they'd have to tear everything down to the studs.

Sell them all or sell nothing. That's what I think the choice probably is. And my guess is that as long as they are within shouting distance of a playoff spot, I think it's going to be sell nothing.

Out of likes

[NorthWoods]

5 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

One could argue the opposite if you think you can resign Mize.  If you’re selling anyway, trade him and try to resign him like Flaherty as you wouldn’t get a comp pick anyway.

Good point, my job isn't to remember all that as I try to stir a little soup on a message board.

[Sports_Freak]

Uhhhhh....

 

[Nate7474]

6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Uhhhhh....

 

Good for him, I hope he has success. Still don’t want him on this team. 

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

Out of likes

Come back to it later. 😉 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Don't worry guys. I want the Tigers to lose so they become Sellers. So because of that, they will win for the next 14 days straight. We got this!

[Shinzaki]

Skubal's start tonight either made the case to trade him because he's obviously recovered from his injury and will fetch a better return...or it made the case to buy because we could go on another incredible run

[TigerNation]

If your expectation for a return from trading Skubal is to get a player that provides more than 12 WAR over 6 years of control, you are simply mistaken about what you should actually expect out of prospects. That would be an objectively good outcome for trading Skubal. The likelihood is that we don't get even one player that good.

 

Any thought that you should expect to receive one impact player, one player who actually meaningfully changes the outlook of the franchise over the next 6-7 years is fantasy land.

[Tigermojo]

Ilitch didn't spend $240+ million to get to the deadline and say let's build for the future. He wants to win today and ideally also win tomorrow but heavy emphasis on winning today. That has been the team's mantra since Hinch arrived. They are buying. 

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Ilitch didn't spend $240+ million to get to the deadline and say let's build for the future. He wants to win today and ideally also win tomorrow but heavy emphasis on winning today. That has been the team's mantra since Hinch arrived. They are buying. 

Really great point that’s been a little lost in all this. That may not suggest we’re buying no matter what, say, if we collapse to 2-12 for the next 14 games, but that does mean the wiggle room to at least avoid selling is probably wider than we all believe.

[Tenacious D]

I don’t see us buying. The Tigers will not forego the high draft picks as a penalty.

The equivalent to buying for us is getting Torres, Baez, Jobe, Hurter and Bitch Smith back at some point. 

[LongLiveMaroth]

8 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I don’t see us buying. The Tigers will not forego the high draft picks as a penalty.

The equivalent to buying for us is getting Torres, Baez, Jobe, Hurter and Bitch Smith back at some point. 

Dang, Burch Smith catching strays

[Tenacious D]

Damn auto-correct!

[chasfh]

21 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I hope Harris is not basing his decisions on what kind of blowback he gets.  

You may think it's a big nothing, and you yourself may not care, but if Harris were to sell off the best and most popular player on the team while we were in first place and in the midst of a 16-game winning streak, a large portion of the fan base would go ballistic before throwing their hands up and basically giving up on the team. That would cost them fans and revenue both this year and next year, and for years after, because fans would come to understand that it doesn't matter how much the team wins since Harris and Ilitch could inexplicably blow it all up on what would look like a whim.

Maybe you believe this could never, ever happen because fans are rational thinkers who wouldn't even blink an eye at losing Skubal in that way because we are still on a 16-game winning streak and in first place. I would definitely disagree with that.

[Sports_Freak]

11 hours ago, Shinzaki said:

Skubal's start tonight either made the case to trade him because he's obviously recovered from his injury and will fetch a better return...or it made the case to buy because we could go on another incredible run

It was the Angels. Teams don't make decisions on one good/very good start. Especially against a weak non-playoff team. They'll look at a greater body of work and that still looks very, very good. Like I've been saying, I think Harris will only trade Skubal if he gets a really big haul. If not, we'll keep him. At least, that's my opinion. But, also IMO, Tarik should be a Tiger for life.