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Forsaking proven veterans in a quest for cheap and controllable draft picks, is a crap shoot.  I remember the sensation surrounding Todd Van Poppel back when the A's organization was billing him as the second coming of Bob Feller.   

 

Dreams don't always pay off

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Well, every Tommy John surgery starts with a sore arm. It takes a couple of months to face reality. The sooner they do it, the sooner he will return. Next up, Manning. And Alexander. Yeah, keep bringing up these kids. Blow out their arms now and get it over with.

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2 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

Forsaking proven veterans in a quest for cheap and controllable draft picks, is a crap shoot.  I remember the sensation surrounding Todd Van Poppel back when the A's organization was billing him as the second coming of Bob Feller.   

 

Dreams don't always pay off

It is less of crapshoot today, but there is still a lot of luck involved especially with pitchers.  

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4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

It is less of crapshoot today, but there is still a lot of luck involved especially with pitchers.  

I believe we can gauge  and project talent based upon commonly recognized standards and benchmarks.  Durability, otoh...decidedly less so.  That's why I think when you uncover a gem that demonstrates both, such as a Verlander, or a Scherzer.....only a fool allows then to get away.

Kiddies in general seem more frail to me these days. Maybe that's just the "grouchy old man" inside me taking the reins, but I don't really think I'm imagining it

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35 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I believe we can gauge  and project talent based upon commonly recognized standards and benchmarks.  Durability, otoh...decidedly less so.  That's why I think when you uncover a gem that demonstrates both, such as a Verlander, or a Scherzer.....only a fool allows then to get away.

Kiddies in general seem more frail to me these days. Maybe that's just the "grouchy old man" inside me taking the reins, but I don't really think I'm imagining it

In the old days, they had no surgeries to fix arms.  Guys would get sore arms, maybe rest for a while, then try to pitch through it and eventually disappear.  You wouldn't hear about it so much  because they didn't have anyway to fix it.  It probably seems like guys get hurt more because so many get TJ surgery.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I believe we can gauge  and project talent based upon commonly recognized standards and benchmarks.  Durability, otoh...decidedly less so.  That's why I think when you uncover a gem that demonstrates both, such as a Verlander, or a Scherzer.....only a fool allows then to get away.

Kiddies in general seem more frail to me these days. Maybe that's just the "grouchy old man" inside me taking the reins, but I don't really think I'm imagining it

Pretty ironic that the big knock on Scherzer early was that almost no-one believed he would be durable. Still, give me a guy that throws  FB, change, curve and keeps his slider %low and I'm going to feel better about his future. JV had never thrown more than 30% sliders in a year until the year before his UCL gave out. Just sayin'.

In fact Scherzer, despite a reputation as a slider pitcher, actually  throws it < 20% of the time.

Edited by gehringer_2
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I think we are essentially talking about the same things, with one distinction.

I believe that there is a "genetic lottery" that can be won, just with certain individuals, perhaps they are "mutant" whatever you want to call it.  Slight deviations in the way their tendons are bonded....or "whatever"   Something that gives them a freakish resistance (notice I did not say "immunity)  to frailties more common with the other 98% of us..... a "prime specimen"   if you'll indulge the idea

When you are lucky enough to find one of those "freaks" that also refines his talent (a sub set, of a sub set)...then only a fool squanders something like that away thinking "oh this guy is gonna cost a fortune to re-sign, lets trade him for prospects, and hope we find another gem".   

That's my crackpot theory anyway.  I'm sure the usual suspects will feel compelled to chime in now throwing their typical flaming bag of crap at it. I've grown accustomed to that here.  :classic_ninja:

 

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Posted (edited)

Separate from the above.. I also believe that it's just human nature that most individuals typically "give" about 95%  of what we are physically capable of...and call that "100%"

There are a number of metaphors I could use to illustrate the concept, and I think we've even argued about them before......but let me play it saf(er) this time and just say that most pros know their limits, and try to not "over throw" the ball...there's a concept I'm sure you'll be familiar with.

For the guys with an abundance of talent.... 95% of their intrinsic maximum is often good enough to get them through an entire career.. 

But for a kid with too big a burden put on him to perform, I think they might abandon caution and throw everything they have into it...and injure themselves in the process.,  A rook on the cusp of a no hitter, for example  (** cough cough**)

Edited by Useful Idiot
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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

But for a kid with too big a burden put on him to perform, I think they might abandon caution and throw everything they have into it...and injure themselves in the process.,  A rook on the cusp of a no hitter, for example  (** cough cough**)

I think there is a lot of truth in this for pitchers -  maybe relievers especially. I find it odd that people don't find it odder that relievers suffer just about as much UCL trouble as starters at 1/3 the IP. That would argue it's not the reps, it's particular reps.

Edited by gehringer_2
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Posted (edited)

Mize's injury woes were foreseen when he was first drafted, and when he first came to the majors. Neither this incidence nor its timing is much of a surprise. I guess the reasonable hope is that he'll be fixed up and 100% by the start of 2024.

If there's any lemonade to squeeze out of this, bitter though even that might be, it's that Mize was neither pitching at an All-Star level while he was here, nor were we expected to rely mainly on him to get us into and through the playoffs.

Edited by chasfh
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10 hours ago, Useful Idiot said:

That's my crackpot theory anyway.  I'm sure the usual suspects will feel compelled to chime in now throwing their typical flaming bag of crap at it. I've grown accustomed to that here.  :classic_ninja:

 

Isn't that why you come here?  

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

has any players from that draft made an impact at the MLB level yet ?

Madrigal certainly was up until his injury.

Alec Bohm starting for the Phils.

Joey Bart starting for the Giants but not doing all that much with the bat - but he's a catcher.

Edited by gehringer_2
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19 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Well, every Tommy John surgery starts with a sore arm. It takes a couple of months to face reality. The sooner they do it, the sooner he will return. Next up, Manning. And Alexander. Yeah, keep bringing up these kids. Blow out their arms now and get it over with.

given the quality of the imaging today, at least there is less uncertainty about how long to keep trying rehab.

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arent they just as likely to blow out their arms in the minors?  how long do you keep them out of the big leagues because they might get hurt?  

that's the risk for all pitchers.  (which is why you should build around hitters)

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, buddha said:

  (which is why you should build around hitters)

Tigers have tried that and failed with it in more than one era. The Tigers teams that have gone to WS were all pitching-centric. Lolich/McLain/Wilson, Morris, Petry, Wilcox, Verlander, Rodgers/Verlander/Scherzer etc.

Edited by gehringer_2
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the 84 team was NOT pitching centric.  neither was the 68 team.  those teams were built around hitting.

in fact, the tigers' history is one of great hitters and above average but not great pitching (probably due a lot to their stadium).  its when they can pair their hitting with great seasons from their above average pitching that they won.

 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, buddha said:

the 84 team was NOT pitching centric.  neither was the 68 team.  those teams were built around hitting.

in fact, the tigers' history is one of great hitters and above average but not great pitching (probably due a lot to their stadium).  its when they can pair their hitting with great seasons from their above average pitching that they won.

 

and the only year of many with the cast of that 68 team when they won was the year the pitching all came together.  Wilson with his last big season added to McLain and Lolich. There were no great hitting teams in that era. Team OPS in '68 was only 10 pts about league average. The did have some long ball hitters though - and Tiger stadium helped.

Edited by gehringer_2
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