romad1 Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: One must be aware of not cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. To be on the receiving end of advanced Chinese tech where we control the grounds as compared to years of being coerced into putting our tech on the ground in China where they controlled it isn't the part of US/Chinese relations I'm going to lose the most sleep over. Your thinking in terms of peace. I'm thinking in terms of a countdown clock. I'm afraid our view on this is going to differ. War with China is not in my retirement plan but I think we need to be aware that they are within months of attacking the western Pacific and killing tens of of thousands of Americans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 On 2/10/2023 at 8:54 PM, romad1 said: Your thinking in terms of peace. I'm thinking in terms of a countdown clock. I'm afraid our view on this is going to differ. War with China is not in my retirement plan but I think we need to be aware that they are within months of attacking the western Pacific and killing tens of of thousands of Americans. So, how does this look tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Like a couple million dollar per shot mission to shoot a hole in a few weather balloons with a missile that cost 400 grand alone, just to prove we have the Bigus Dickus in the world, while they laugh at us. We are no better with balloon than we are with pipelines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Screwball said: Like a couple million dollar per shot mission to shoot a hole in a few weather balloons with a missile that cost 400 grand alone, just to prove we have the Bigus Dickus in the world, while they laugh at us. We are no better with balloon than we are with pipelines. Chinese NORAD detection limit test balloons? $49.99 a pop on AliBaba? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: Chinese NORAD detection limit test balloons? $49.99 a pop on AliBaba? Lots of talk about how much things cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 The Cost of Freedom is sometimes high... but this country has the wherewithal to do so... so I could care less about monetary complaints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, romad1 said: Lots of talk about how much things cost. Well you have to admit the Chinese should be amused by the asymetry of what these floaters probably cost them (assuming this last thing originated in China) and what we are spending to go get them. How could you not be? Just rolling one F22 down the runway probably costs more than whatever comprises their whole fleet of these little response magnets. I'm not knocking that we've decided to play our half of the game kinetically, but that doesn't make it less funny in the "swatting flies with a howitzer" kind of way. Edited February 12, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: The Cost of Freedom is sometimes high... but this country has the wherewithal to do so... so I could care less about monetary complaints. The system that took down these "things" was deemed a horrible failure because people were stuck in a ten year bubble like the British government in the 1930s. Until it was almost too late they waited to rebuild their armed forces. They just barely survived because they invested in radar, the Hurricane and the Spitfire and had a bunch of dominions willing to support the mother country (collective security). Strong alliances and strong, confident defense establishments are the only way to prevent WWIII. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 (edited) The other way of looking at this. China is doing all this because their other sensors are crap and they lack the precision to do what they want. The key point is that they want to do certain things because they are led by one man on a power trip and who senses he has only a certain amount of time before societal collapse due to under population. Edited February 12, 2023 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, romad1 said: The key point is that they want to do certain things because they are led by one man on a power trip and who senses he has only a certain amount of time before societal collapse due to under population. Which make you wonder what the attraction of Taiwan is, since it has one of the lowest fetility rates in the world. Population pressure driving a decision desire to take over a place that is going to need even more services for the aged than the mainland. Brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Which make you wonder what the attraction of Taiwan is, since it has one of the lowest fetility rates in the world. Population pressure driving a decision desire to take over a place that is going to need even more services for the aged than the mainland. Brilliant. He will not have been told any of that. He just knows that the countryside of China is filled with aging grandparents making food for the cities while their children and grandchild (singular) chase technocratic dreams in the cities. Those people in the cities are dealing with further and further restrictions on their behavior due to the crap way China handled this outbreak and their crap vaccine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 We are preventing WWIII by trying to start WWIII. War is peace Freedom is slavery Ignorance is strength Now all we need is our 2 minutes of hate...Oh, wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 This is a very interesting discussion on the possibility of war with China and China's demographic challenges. BLUF: the Chinese are a peaking power that senses it is about to decline (true). This is the most dangerous time for international relations. Also, China is funding international efforts across the board that make suppression of democracy and human rights easier (e.g., "Smart Cities" initiatives). https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/what-happens-if-the-balloon-goes-up-with-china/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clark1mt Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 13 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Which make you wonder what the attraction of Taiwan is, since it has one of the lowest fetility rates in the world. Population pressure driving a decision desire to take over a place that is going to need even more services for the aged than the mainland. Brilliant. Computer chips. https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwan-china-us-china-tensions-serious-challenge-chip-industry-tsmc-says-2022-10-19/ Especially after we announced we'd not be exporting related tech to China anymore, and other countries are joining the bandwagon. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/01/chip-war-japan-netherlands-us-tech-export-ban-china-microchips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, clark1mt said: Computer chips. https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwan-china-us-china-tensions-serious-challenge-chip-industry-tsmc-says-2022-10-19/ Especially after we announced we'd not be exporting related tech to China anymore, and other countries are joining the bandwagon. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/01/chip-war-japan-netherlands-us-tech-export-ban-china-microchips well sure, but you're not going to get Taiwan's semiconductor foundries by invading them - I would guess the Taiwanese would destroy them before they let Xi have them. As Muad'dib would say "He who has the power to destroy a thing controls it absolutely" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Holy crap is the fuckery going on wrt the twitterverse and the NOTAMs and the three shoot downs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_3_4885.html Quote FDC 3/4885 ZMP PART 1 OF 3 WI..AIRSPACE LAKE MICHIGAN, WI..TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. PURSUANT TO 49 USC 40103(B)(3), THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) CLASSIFIES THE AIRSPACE DEFINED IN THIS NOTAM AS 'NTL DEFENSE AIRSPACE'. PILOTS WHO DO NOT ADHERE TO THE FOLLOWING PROC MAY BE INTERCEPTED, DETAINED AND INTERVIEWED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT/ SECURITY PERSONNEL. ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIONS MAY ALSO BE TAKEN AGAINST A PILOT WHO DOES NOT COMPLY WITH THE RQMNTS OR ANY SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS OR PROC ANNOUNCED IN THIS NOTAM: A) THE FAA MAY TAKE ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION, INCLUDING IMPOSING CIVIL PENALTIES AND THE SUSPENSION OR REVOCATION OF AIRMEN CERTIFICATES; OR B) THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY PURSUE CRIMINAL CHARGES, INCLUDING CHARGES UNDER 49 USC SECTION 46307; C) THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY USE DEADLY FORCE AGAINST THE AIRBORNE ACFT, IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE ACFT POSES AN IMMINENT SECURITY THREAT; OR D) UAS OPERATORS WHO DO NOT COMPLY WITH APPLICABLE AIRSPACE 2302121730-PERM END PART 1 OF 3 FDC 3/4885 ZMP PART 2 OF 3 WI..AIRSPACE LAKE MICHIGAN, WI..TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE WARNED THAT PURSUANT TO 10 U.S.C. SECTION 130I AND 6 U.S.C. SECTION 124N, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD), THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (DHS) OR THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (DOJ) MAY TAKE SECURITY ACTION THAT RESULTS IN THE INTERFERENCE, DISRUPTION, SEIZURE, DAMAGING, OR DESTRUCTION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT DEEMED TO POSE A CREDIBLE SAFETY OR SECURITY THREAT TO PROTECTED PERSONNEL, FACILITIES, OR ASSETS. PURSUANT TO 14 CFR 99.7, SPECIAL SECURITY INSTRUCTIONS, ALL ACFT FLT OPS ARE PROHIBITED: WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 454714N0872341W TO 454714N0853619W TO 443222N0853729W TO 443222N0872231W TO THE POINT OF ORIGIN. SFC-30,000' MSL EFFECTIVE 2302121730 UNTIL PERM. EXCEPTIONS: A) NATIONAL SECURITY ACFT OPS UNDER DIRECTION OF DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE; AND 2302121730-PERM END PART 2 OF 3 FDC 3/4885 ZMP PART 3 OF 3 WI..AIRSPACE LAKE MICHIGAN, WI..TEMPORARY FLIGHT B) LAW ENFORCEMENT, AIR AMBULANCE, AND OTHER URGENT GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSE ACFT OPS WITH AUTHORIZATION FROM ATC (ATC MUST SECURE PRE-APPROVAL BY THE ON DUTY NATIONAL TACTICAL SECURITY OPERATIONS AIR TRAFFIC SECURITY COORDINATOR). ALL AIRCRAFT, WHICH ARE ALREADY AIRBORNE WITHIN THE DEFINED AIRSPACE WHEN THIS TFR BECOMES EFFECTIVE, MUST EXIT THE AREA USING THE MOST EXPEDITIOUS ROUTE CONSISTENT WITH SAFETY AND IN COORDINATION WITH ATC AS APPROPRIATE. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TEL 850-283-5242 IS THE CDN FACILITY. 2302121730-PERM END PART 3 OF 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 and Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Clearly they mean Northern Iowa by Northern Montana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just south of Timmins, Ontario. Holy crap are the Chinese trying to take out Shania Twain?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Apparently this thing over Lake Huron has been "decommissioned" which is an impressive use of that word. I think that indicates that there was a ceremony and it is no longer in the service of whatever Air Force it was serving. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Now media reports are correctly saying shot down the "object" If this is over Lake Huron I really dread the effort to recover whatever falls into the water in these temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 I forget the name of those cardboard rocket engines that kids like to shoot up in the air...Estes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said: I forget the name of those cardboard rocket engines that kids like to shoot up in the air...Estes? Estes is correct. I have a fishing tackle box in my garage with several ready to launch from a decade ago phase with my son. I used to launch them from a field that was right next to Dulles Airport in violation of many regulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ronz Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Yes, the name was Estes. Unless two were launched then they were known as "Testes." 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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