A couple of notes:
I don't know where to get a list of rule 5 eligible players, but those guys probably have to factor in as well. At least the keepable ones.
The 3B free agent market is dreadful. Unless a 3B is acquired via trade, I suspect they grit their teeth and roll the dice with Candelario. He has it in him, at least he's shown it before. Its a matter of getting that out of him. The hitting coaches will be different.
There was some lobbying during the TV broadcast last night for Alexander to return in some capacity, maybe long reliever being his best fit. I think he does return as he can swing between starter and reliever. There is going to be a need to pitch 1,400 innings, and Alexander can probably give them over 100 in some sort of hybrid role, hopefully more relief innings than starting innings.
And I think the overwhelming variable in all of this is a new front office. Harris brings new eyes to the organization. The new GM will likely be from outside of the organization. So, there will be different input from those seats, plus Hinch who knows the inside of the clubhouse. Despite Hinch being hired by Avila, he seems to be distanced enough from Avila that he is a quasi new/different set of eyes. That 40 could be burnt to the ground for all we know.
But Jack Morris, of all people, made a pretty salient point after the game. The goal should be the playoffs, and the team could redirect towards that as more of a short term goal than a long term goal, but the type of turnaround that would be needed is tough to accomplish. They could make the playoffs next season given enough of the right moves, but how many times do we see a 25+ game turnaround? Drunk Uncle Jack dropping a dose of reasonable reality. Imagine that?