1984Echoes

Next test for Flores/ Olson/ Serretti/ Meadows/ Dingler/ and maybe a couple others will be AAA next year...

Obviously they are raising rates to fight off inflation... and they were probably too slow to start on that due to the huge uncertainty coming out of the pandemic. I don't know if we'll get a soft landing... can we avoid a recession while the Fed is trying to kill off inflation? That's the $64,000 question right now. They've jumped interest rates a few times already and will again this month... and yet Employment/ Inflation/ and consumer demand are still going strong. The rest of the world has slowed down enough that maybe the supply chain issues fix themselves (I believe they already have for the most part) but Russia's war on Ukraine is also F'ing everything up because that is causing worldwide food shortages/ fertilizer shortages/ energy shortages etc... all inflationary and counter-acting what the Fed is trying to do. But I think the U.S. will be sharply less impacted than anywhere else in the world... except maybe China also won't be affected too badly... they have a lot of insulation against these factors... So maybe we will get a somewhat soft landing with only a few markets impacted (housing, stock markets, food prices) whilst others aren't impacted all that much. We'll see... This is a really unique environment for us so... we'll see. But also... whatever impact we do get with these rising interest rates... I believe will only be temporary. We still have too many growth factors counter-acting inflation/ rising rates that says we're not going to get much recession, even if we do get some... and interest rates (Fed Rate) should stabilize around the 4% mark... I believe that was the Fed's target... Plan accordingly I guess...

If you want to use EBITDA you would use it exactly thus; As a way to determine how much debt load a company should carry. I haven't worked in a capital-intensive company in forever... so I don't remember the exact calc's... but you wouldn't use a 1-to-1 ratio (EBITDA = to exactly the amount of interest a company would pay monthly.. because a firm would be over-exposed to interest rates.. as you've pointed out. And here, Taxes and Depreciation (non-cash, money's already been spent on the capital assets) are meaningless so EBITDA is a perfect unit of measure...). Instead, the ratio would be 3-1 or 4-1 or 5-1 or something like that. A 2-5% rise in interest rates would not affect a High-EBITDA company as they aren't going to expose themselves to interest rate risk like that. Here is where rising interest rates hurt the corporate world: A) Growth companies. They're losing money, and need debt/ stock proceeds to fund their growth while they are building their business/ losing cash incessantly since they're trying to obtain that growth. Interest rate jumps = harder to service the debt when they are cash negative and bank funding dries up. Market will go down and growth companies' stock prices get hammered which means going to the capital markets can dry up on that basis. For growth companies, and can be a downward spiral to oblivion. It's one reason that growth stocks get absolutely hammered in a rising interest rate environment. B) A strong cash (EBITDA) company can still get hammered if they are highly leveraged. If Revenues/ EBITDA drop due to a recession/ slow-down, etc... Now they're can get trapped between a Rock (dropping EBITDA) and a hard place (rising interest rates/ debt service). But... that also only affects NEW debt or variable interest debt. Companies mostly sign onto fixed rate debt since they like static forecasted cash flows (stability). They may have variable rates on any lines of credit they have but for Cap-Ex purchases those should be fixed rate debt. That shields a company from rising interest rate environments. For the most part. But it may also affect their ability to take on new debt based on some of the factors I listed above... C) A rising interest rate/ recessionary environment may, or may not slow down capital expenditures, further slowing down an economy. Usually this is a function of current debt load. Highly leveraged companies will put off Cap-Ex because it's not a good environment to add debt. A low-or-zero-leveraged company, with a huge cash flow... might not care about the rising interest rates/ recessionary environment and go ahead with Cap-Ex purchases anyways because they don't care about interest rates. As to your statement that interest rate matters... I would rather say that it... depends. Upon the factors I outlined above. And that it's not really EBITDA that is impacted/ or impacts decisions from rising interest rates, but other factors. I wouldn't use EBITDA except to determine whether I want to add/ not add debt. I wouldn't use it to rate the affect Interest Rates are having on a company... Just my 2 cents.

EBITDA = Earnings BEFORE Interest Taxes and Amortization (depreciation). Notice how Interest is EXCLUDED in EBITDA? However... EBITDA is basically Cash Flows from Income Statement (excludes Balance Sheet movement) which states how much cash a company is making to service debt (interest) and taxes. Depreciation (amortization) is non-cash so it's excluded. You are in the ballpark but your technical details are a little off.

No it isn't. Debt Load is Balance Sheet. Not Profit & Loss. Wanna explain how the fuck you're getting debt load into EBITDA?

There is ZERO possibility of Xi getting dumped. Where is this fever dream coming from? Because it certainly isn't based on any reality.

I want Peacekeepers in Ukraine ASAP. 20-ish K Polish troops. 10-ish K German, Slovaki & Romanian troops. 10-ish K UK & Norwegian troops. 15-ish K US troops. Time to tell Putin to F Off. In a not so unsubtle way. Escalation is no longer an option for Putin. Force a de-escalation. And bring in the missile defenses to cut down or force the de-escalation of Russia's missile attacks. But that's just me.

Ditto.

I guess we're getting 75 basis points after all...

If you read this, read it to the... very. last. sentence. Russia post-war impact: https://www.yahoo.com/news/happens-russia-loses-081959272.html

"Coming to you LIVE from the White House: Franken. Al Franken. President of the United States... Al Franken."

Oops, I meant LF... I'm going to call that a mental typo...

"Retire" Miggy and then you can play both (Baddoo in RF, Carpenter at DH) against RH'ers... Or if one is faltering, send him down to Toledo to work on his game...

Show the evidence that the US strong-armed Ukraine into not taking a deal. Otherwise you are again full of crap. This was in the news every day, loudly and clearly and with NO US Influence whatsoever, that: 1) Ukraine kept pushing for negotiations and an end to the war. 2) Russia kept jerking them around because they didn't WANT serious negotiations. Russia had no interest in real negotiations, they wanted to take as much of Ukraine as they thought they could get away with taking and they were confident they could do so. This came out from multiple sources and in multiple instances. There were NO serious negotiations because Russia has not been serious from the start, or at any point. Putin wants as much of Ukraine as he can take, and the rest of Ukraine weakened to a pauper state and disallowed from entering the EU, ever, or NATO. Never allowed to enter the EU? That is NOT a serious offer. or one that Ukraine would ever accept. 3) UKRAINE ended the negotiations after Russian atrocities came to light. This takes no influence from the US whatsoever. Every single country and politician, from the U.K, to Poland, to Germany, to the U.S., EVERYONE has stated loudly and clearly that it is UKRAINE's DECISION on negotiations, and what they are willing to accept. If you have evidence to the contrary, then post it, and don't hide behind a paywall either. Show the evidence. Otherwise, you are full of crap. Again.

Toledo: Wins 10-9 in the 10th but even with that... not really anything interesting player-wise.... Erie: Loses 13-6. Parker 2 for 3 with two doubles and then PH for (I hope he's ok...) with De La Rosa... And Flores got completely rocked with 7 runs in only 1 inning pitched... WM: Loses 5-4. Jobe pitched 5 innings, 1 run on a HR, 2 hits 1 BB, 4 K's... nothing much of interest on offense. Lakeland: Loses 14-1. Nothing of interest on either side of the ball...

Called at 7.5 due to rain. Tigers win 8-4. Manning in 6 1/3 inn's 2 earned runs,3 hits, 1 BB, 4 K's and a total of 3 runs allowed, Chafin also had an unearned run to round out the score. Reyes (triple), Baez (triple, double), Harold, Tork (triple), Carpenter (HR) all finish 2 for 4. Lots of extra bases... Last time a Tigers team hit 3 triples in a game from 3 different players...?

The only heads rolling will be Russian.

I'm always high on hopium. Hopelessly high on hopium. But I'm good at it too...!

Kerry Carpenter with another HR. Ties it up in the 2nd after Manning gave up an opening inning run...

Right... But you gotta see what happens with Rogers' bat and arm and Dingler at AAA before determining how dire the need at catcher is... long-term. I would be extremely reluctant to make any decisions/ commitments at the position before I see what we've got (if I were the new GM... just like I wouldn't want to make an expensive/ long-term commitment to a 1B'man or another rotation arm until...). PS: I thought Dingler's bat had a higher hit tool... but he looks like he's going to be at the Parrish (.252 lifetime BA) or Rogers level rather than higher... but that's OK if he shows up with Parrish's power and excellent defense. He's not there yet, but in 2023 I'm looking at what he does in AAA and what Crouch does in AA. And what Rogers may, or may not, still be able to provide. And then making decisions. But that's just me...

A lot of that was obvious but where I would disagree is that: China will in no way suffer from Russia's defeat. They will simply shift focus. They will shift current strategy to an all out build out of pipelines & other to facilitate Russian oil and gas flowing into China. But it will be under China's contractual terms. And Russian oil and gas has been slow to develop in China, previously, because the Chinese drive hard bargains. Very hard. Hard for Russia to stomach. And therefore, limited buildout to-date. But now that Putin/ Russia are between a rock and a hard place, with the EU repudiating their energy supplies... Xi will have them over a barrel. I believe they are currently getting 30-40% discounts on the Russian oil & gas they are purchasing, because of the existing sanctions. China will push for long-term contracts with Russian supplies at a severe discount. Effectively, a price cap. China has already been copying their advanced military technologies onto their own platforms, so they no longer need Russia as a supplier. Having Russia as a military partner would have been advantageous... but they will have to live with a severely diminished Russia as an economic/ military entity. I won't state the same for political ideology as I think there may be changes in the Russian polity coming soon. But since they have lost their ranking as a military superpower (aside from a nuclear arsenal..); it doesn't really matter anyways. China will force Russia into a commodities supplier relationship, which I think was destiny anyways for Russia under the current regime. This is just happening a whole lot swifter than anyone could have imagined. Because of Putin's Folly. Lastly, on Taiwan... It's probably short-term painful for China... but they have a long game... so I think they will start to tread more carefully and again, will just look to adapt/ shift their techniques to deal with the new reality. They've been throwing a lot of temper tantrums recently... but they'll figure out what changes they need to implement to continue on their attempted path towards becoming the dominant #1 superpower. Which I don't think was ever realistically achievable (more like parity), even if their economy will soon be larger than the US Economy. Overall, probably some disappointment on Xi's side but... he'll adapt quickly IMO.

Yes. I made a couple adjustments but used your comment because I think that's where we're at. Just my 2 cents but I don't think the Org/ new GM will have any interest in bringing Barnhart back so it's Dingler and Sanchez at AAA and Rogers/ Haase with the Tigers. I don't know how Jake's arm is progressing after TJ but... I don't think they'll bring in a FA either... I think next year will be to just see how the position fleshes out next year or, as you've pointed out, try upgrading in 2024 if they feel it's necessary. I don't know if Dingler will be the starter in 2024, or just get a cup because he isn't quite ready... but I think he can be the long-term answer. We'll see...

They are either IN, or have taken Kupiansk... it's a little unclear; but as indicated, any Russian troops in Izium will soon have their retreat cut off, can be encircled, and captured: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wrapup-1-ukraine-troops-raise-090145556.html This looks like one of Ukraine's goals... to capture as many Russian POW's as they can. I wonder if Putin will trade the millions (1.5?) of Ukrainian women and children that he's kidnapped to get his "disgraced soldiers" back. This will be a Ukrainian demand in any negotiation. On Putin's decision...? 50/50 at best. Why would he trade women and children for disgraced Russian soldiers (his line of thinking I believe)? Which will be a destabilizing issue in Ukraine (that is what Putin's thinking will also be IMO so...) not better odds than 50/50.

And Haase and Candy with 6 hits including 3 HR's and a BB saying "Hey, we thought we might try and help out too... is that OK with you guys?"

Who was the Toledo hitting coach they brought up with Tork and Kreidler? Maybe everyone en masse decided to shift over and listen to him instead of Hessman and Coolbaugh? Just WAG'ing here...