4hzglory

From mlbtraderumors.com on top 40 trade candidates: I definitely agree with their analysis and the chances of him actually being traded. 40. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers | projected $17.8MM salary; controlled via arbitration through 2026 Wishcasting on a trade of Skubal from other fan bases began before the Tigers were even eliminated from the postseason. Skubal is entering his final season of club control and is likely to be named American League Cy Young Award winner for the second consecutive season later this month. As a Boras-repped ace with a pair of Cy Youngs under his belt, the chances of him signing an extension range from minuscule to nonexistent. That’s led to plenty of calls — even some from Detroit fans — for the Tigers to cash in on a significant return. The chances of that actually happening only seem marginally higher than those microscopic chances of an extension, however. The Tigers are firmly in win-now mode. At his end-of-season press conference, president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke of World Series aspirations and various avenues to improve his club for 2026. Significant as a return for Skubal might be, there’s basically no plausible scenario where the Tigers are better next year after trading their ace. That we’ve seen several teams move their top players in the final year of club control in recent seasons only fans the flames. The Astros (Kyle Tucker), Brewers (Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams) and Padres (Juan Soto) all come to mind as prominent examples. However, each of those teams was facing considerable financial pressure. Astros owner Jim Crane was seemingly adamant about remaining under the luxury tax in 2025 at the time of the Tucker trade. The Brewers (as previously noted with Peralta) always listen on their top players late in arbitration. The Padres payroll outlook had changed after the unfortunate passing of owner Peter Seidler. There’s no such pressure in Detroit. Quite the opposite, in fact. Javier Baez and Colt Keith are the only players signed to guaranteed deals beyond the 2026 season. Baez’s contract runs through 2027. Keith’s $4.775MM average annual value is a drop in the bucket. The Tigers may not be likely to extend Skubal before he gets to free agency, but they have the payroll space to sign him long-term even if (when) he reaches the market. Skubal is included on this list primarily because teams will try to pry him loose. Harris probably won’t expressly turn offers away and isn’t the type of executive who (to this point, anyway) makes definitive public declarations about his players. But the Tigers already have a deep farm — Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark are both top-10 prospects in the entire sport — along with a blank-slate payroll outlook and clear World Series aspirations in the short term. A Skubal trade would be genuinely stunning — the first time in nearly 20 years that the best pitcher in MLB was traded prior to free agency, harkening back to the Twins (another payroll-strapped club) and their 2007 trade of Johan Santana. Other teams can go ahead and try, but it’d be a pretty bold claim for Detroit’s front office to trade far and away their best player and still claim to be in win-now mode.

There was an article in the Athletic about how the Jay's conservatism on the base paths likely cost them that series. They told their guys to stay close to 3rd - IKF was only 7.8 ft off the base compared to Betts being 11.6 ft off in a comparable situation. That difference also would have made him safe. And it wasn't just IKF. Springer was only 8 ft off of 3rd when on. The Jays were so concerned about getting picked off or doubled up on a liner, they cost themselves the series. Give me the aggressiveness with some outs on the base paths over that any day.

100%

Correct from Detroit’s end, but for those on our side expecting a huge haul, those proposals line up more with what other top end players with 1 yr on their contract have gotten. Which is why in our position of contending, it doesn’t make sense to move him IMO.

The fact that there are no void years and no dead cap for 2030 is great and obviously leaves a lot of room for restructuring/extensions to help the 2027-30 cap #'s. A great job again by the front office.

Toronto. More anti-LA than pro Toronto though.

I'm not honestly sure about the minors anymore either as they are under the current cba now.

Everything I'm seeing (of course from writers) is still expecting him to get in the 10/$400 mil range. Prior to the collapse, they were up to $500 mil.

Exactly, all he made it known was that the offer prior to last season wasn’t close. From what I heard, it’s the writers that are saying the $400 mil (and thus $250 mil apart) number, even though that’s apples to oranges as his number may now be $400 mil, but it wasn’t likely last offseason with 2 arbitration years. (In which he will get paid a total of anr $30 mil). And a Tiger offer now would definitely be higher than last offseason.

It would be extremely hard to as the vast majority of players aren't good enough to make it even a couple seasons. You can't pay them a huge amount more without taking $ away from the ones who have proven themselves, so unless you were to pay players all a minimum salary, and then a check at the end of the season based on their performance, I don't know how you would do it. For some that check could be $40 mil. For some it could be nothing. The current CBA does have some of that built in for non arbitration eligible players, and I would expect the amount in that pool to increase.

Lions released Fuller from the practice squad per Pride of Detroit.

Tucker would be great, but I don't see it at all. Even with his down year, he's projected to get 10/$400 from most places and I don't see that fitting. I think at most they are in play for one of Bichette/Bregman and a starter like Cease or Ranger Suarez and then swing and miss for the pen.

My definition of not doing something stupid is if you trade him, you still need to compete in 2026 and it must be good enough of a return to also improve you for at least 3 years. I'm not all that concerned about losing him for just a comp pick, as again, I think they have many ways to improve by 2027 (assuming there is a season). McGonigle and Clark should be up with some time under their belt. Not to mention one or 2 of Lee/Alexander/Jung/Briceno being improvements over the current lot of Ibanez and Jones. I think Keith has a great chance to be a solid player by 2027 (I think we see a big jump in 2026 and he becomes our primary 3b barring a FA signing). Jobe should also be fully recovered and I'm assuming even with Skubal, (and Flaherty), they sign someone for a multiple years this offseason (like Cease). That gives time to evaluate/develop Olson/Melton/Mize (to see if extend)/SGL/Montero/rest of farm and have the $ to make another FA signing in 2027. IMO, they have time and a path to do that for 2027, but those pieces aren't all in place for 2026 which is why they need Skubal for a chance to really compete.

Not at all IMO as there are other ways to improve after 2026. Having a season in 2027 is no sure thing, let alone being in contention then. With Skubal, they are the favorites in the Central. They know they are set up for contention in 2026. By 2027, if there is a season, a number of these players won't be here. They for sure want to be given the best chance in the present, knowing if they are here, reinforcements are coming from a top 3 farm system in future years.

I'm not advocating signing him to a long term deal (even though I'd definitely be happy if they did as it would mean they figure the $ work). I'm saying what Lee, Chas, and Brian are saying, you don't trade your Ace (who will be closer to $20 mil for 2026) when trading him takes you from being the favorites in the division to playoff long shots. And for sure TV and radio ratings will drop if they aren't in contention and that is where most of the long term revenue $ end up being. I know I don't make it a point to watch at least part of probably 80% of their games when they are having down years like I did last year.

People seem to dismiss this and say the players are professionals, but they are human and we see many times where players don't play with the same energy when they are discouraged. It's one reason you see excitement when teams make trades at the deadline. Seattle didn't get much from Suarez on the field after the trade, but they did get a boost from trading for him in their attitude. The fact that he was so loved there before helped. (They also got more than expected from Naylor, especially on the basepaths)

Can you imagine the apathy if not only do you take a team out of contention by making the team worse this year and then have a work stoppage in 2027?

They definitely don't believe that. The stats have been posted a number of times, but prior to the Tampa game, the Lions go from a top 1-3 defense when Arnold is in the game to a bottom 5 when he is out. (I'm sure the Tampa game improved the numbers for when he is out.)

And Louisiana is a recruiting hotbed. Like you said, with NIL, it’s easier for other schools to be involved.

He said he could win there easier than Notre Dame. There were many Irish fans glad to see him go. He put very little personal effort into recruiting while at ND, rarely meeting with recruits. I’m sure he thought he could continue that and win at LSU.

The Marlins took Hicks from us last year.

They have to have a challenge left. You only get 2 incorrect ones per game.

In the minors I think there’s been a pretty large amount of both. For hitters it’s probably more avoiding strike 3 than getting ball 4 though.

Yeah, but that was before Skubal was what he is. I think it’s arguable who’s better of Cease or Flaherty on the market, but expect Cease to get something around 3 for $70 while Flaherty may be fortunate to get 2 for $40 if he doesn’t take the QO.

I wonder if he's being coy, as if he came out and said "Our guys needed a break and this gave us longer than a time out with a microscopic chance of something being found to overturn the play" the league would begin to look into the policy.