4hzglory

I live in Sarasota, so it was a chance to take the afternoon off.

To be fair, Keith’s had a very small fraction of the ball clip the zone. And the Orioles badly missed their 1 challenge

Big Let’s Go Tigers cheer right after the triple

Well, he’s in center now.

Vierling with a cannon to throw out Jackson at home.

Cora in midseason form, Vierling thrown out at the plate on a double by Lee.

And Montero gives it right back. 2-1 Orioles

Trei with a nice 2 out single after Anderson and Valencia couldn’t drive in Liranzo from 3rd

My view from the office this afternoon

I don't think they think Pete or Suarez fits this team. Pete because they don't need a 1b/DH and Suarez has an approach they are trying to get away from (High K, low OBP). I also think they didn't want to commit too many years to Bichette or Bregman due to where their top prospects are at. If one of them was a legit SS (Bichette is not) it may have been different. Bottom line, I think they see the top end starter improving their chances of not only getting to, but advancing far in the playoffs than any of the bats available.

One plus, with that is the prorating of contracts, so if they're 100 games in thats only 38% of the deal. The other key one is Valdez's contract won't have the $38 mil aav, we don't know what it will be, but it's know there are deferrals. So they will have a bit more til they are at the tax.

I'm curious as to what his actual AAV is once the deferrals are revealed.

Look for Skenes to get traded in the next 2 years.

And last year they had settled on the $10 ish million number after he won the cy young, so it's not like he just became a great pitcher. From Boras/Skubal (his position with the PA) this is all about attempting to raise the ceiling. It's a bit of a risk, as if he would lose, it would show the strength of the process from the owner's side. It would have been nice if Boras was willing to negotiate at all. Then Skubal could have received a record for an arbitration pitcher (the Tigers initial offer would have been that at $19.8) and probably received a record & and percentage of raise. But they're aiming for higher.

I don't think it's going to be chaos. I think it's going to be Keith's to lose.

I think it's more likely that waiting until now makes it easier to drag along the physical until they can put Jobe on the 60-day DL and free up a roster spot than it has anything to do with the date of the arbitration hearing.

I agree. I do have reasonable faith 3b can be league average with Keith hopefully getting the majority of playing time, but having Vieriling, and McKinstry among others. And I don't think there needs to be improvement in Vierling other than health. If healthy, I'd be surprised if he's far off from 2024 and that would be a large overall improvement over what Ibanez or Jones brought.

The question the arbitrator's decide is if he is worth more or less than $25,500,000 compared to other arbitration cases which factors in precedence for both previous pitchers ($19.8 is current high) and percentage of raise among other things. If its $25,500,001, Skubal gets $32 mil. If it's $25,499,999, he gets $19 mil.

However, he is asking for a $21 mil raise (basically 3 times last year's salary) which is by far the record both in percent and $. For comparison, Soto received an $8 mil raise which was just under 35%.

I agree. For optics, I do wish they would come in with a number beginning in 2, but it they started at $19.8 in pre arb negotiations and were supposedly willing to move, but Boras wouldn't negotiate at all. So they filed at $19

Exactly. This is why they will not waste his innings in Toledo.

If healthy I’d think they would want to get as many Detroit innings out of Olson as possible as he hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy and why waste any of his #2-3 quality innings at Toledo.

If healthy I think it’s Olson and not much of a fight. This puts them in a much better position next year. They can offer the QO to Flaherty and Mize if they’re similar to even 2025 and have Jobe back as well.

I agree. Barring spring injuries, I think it almost guarantees Anderson is in the pen. I do think Melton likely starts in Toledo in that case, unless they think he helps them more in the pen than as the first option for an injury.

You forgot Mize