bobrob2004

Why not? Currently they are 100% on cable, but every year more and more people are cutting the cord and are going to streaming. Pretty soon there will be more people without cable than with cable.

I'm not talking about national contract. I'm talking about the Tigers making an agreement with one of them to stream in only the local market.

Yeah, I guess the old fashion way of a local channel like ABC or NBC airing the games isn't attractive or lucrative anymore (and they probably already have their summer programs lined up). I wonder if it'll be feasible for YouTube, Peacock, or AppleTV to stream local games? Or would this interfere with MLB.tv?

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #5 – Jonathan Rufino Jezus Schoop Johnathan Schoop had the worst season of his career in 2022; his lowest batting average (.202), on-base percentage (.239), slugging percentage (.322), and wRC+ (57). In fact, a good argument can be made that Schoop was the worst hitter in all of baseball last year as he had the lowest wRC+ of anyone that had enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboard (and was in the bottom five in most of the other categories). The only saving grace for Schoop last year was his defense. After spending the 2021 season playing out of position at first base, Schoop’s defensive numbers went back to being above average with an 8 DRS and a 4.4 UZR/150 while playing second base last year. If it wasn’t for his stellar defense, he likely would have had a negative WAR. Mamba is entering his age 31 season. Even though he is now on the wrong side of 30, a steep decline at this age is highly unusual without it being injury related. It is possible that when we look back at his career in a few years, 2022 will just look like a fluke season. Although, there is likely some truth to it due to natural regression because of age. Luckily for Schoop, there are rule changes this year that will favor hitters. There are several stats that show Schoop’s decline in 2022, but one that sticks out is how he couldn’t catch up with the fastball: 2021 - .325 AVG | .468 SLG | 10 HR 2022 - .217 AVG | .291 SLG | 2 HR Overall, Jonathan Schoop only hit 11 home runs, the lowest total he has ever hit in a season since becoming an everyday player that didn’t include a pandemic year. His walk rate dropped from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 3.7 percent in 2022, while his strikeout rate of 21 percent was right around his career norm (22.2 percent). Schoop stole five bases last year, a career high (impressive considering how little he was on base). He could steal a few more bases in 2023 with the bigger bases and the fact that it will take just a little bit of improvement to get on base more. One concerning stat from Schoop is the number of softly hit balls he hits, not just in 2022, but for his entire career. In 2022, 24.1 percent of his balls in play were hit softly, the most in the Majors. His career mark is at 23.0 percent. For most of his career, this wasn’t a problem as he was mostly able to hit for above average; six of his nine seasons he had a wRC+ of above 100, including his two other years in Detroit, 117 in 2020 and 107 in 2021. But maybe this was a factor in his steep decline? Jonathan Schoop should have better numbers across the board in 2023, if he really is healthy. However, I would wager that he is done being an above average hitter. I can foresee a similar season like he had in 2018, in which he hit .233/.266/.416 with an 80 wRC+. Although I don’t think he will be capable of hitting 20+ home runs anymore, even with the Tigers moving in the fences. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 529 AB | .245/.289/.394 | 17 HR | 65 RBI | 4 SB | 28 BB | 114 K ZiPS DC – 535 AB | .251/.293/.400 | 17 HR | 61 RBI | 3 SB | 26 BB | 119 K THE BAT X – 493 AB | .238/.283/.377 | 14 HR | 57 RBI | 2 SB | 25 BB | 109 K ATC – 493 AB | .242/.285/.385 | 15 HR | 57 RBI | 3 SB | 25 BB | 109 K FGDC – 534 AB | .248/.291/.397 | 17 HR | 63 RBI | 3 SB | 27 BB | 117 K RotoChamp – 512 AB | .244/.286/.389 | 16 HR | 59 RBI | 3 SB | 26 BB | 113 K CBS Sports – 487 AB | .240/.284/.394 | 16 HR | 51 RBI | 4 SB | 25 BB | 105 K ESPN – 481 AB | .245/.287/.395 | 16 HR | 54 RBI | 2 SB | 24 BB | 105 K My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – 578 AB | .268/.308/.424 | 21 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 31 BB | 130 K 2022 Actual – 481 AB | .202/.239/.322 | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 5 SB | 19 BB | 107 K 2023 Prediction – 546 AB | .253/.288/.390 | 16 HR | 55 RBI | 8 SB | 23 BB | 125 K

This is my thought as well. If Bally fails to pay the Tigers for the broadcasting rights, then couldn't the Tigers terminate the contract and go to another network?

Not only has Hawk retired, but his replacement, Jason Benetti, is considered one of the best tv announcers right now. https://www.pitcherlist.com/ranking-all-30-mlb-broadcast-booths/

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #4 – Michael Clifton Lorenzen For most of his career Michael Lorenzen was a relief pitcher. Then in 2022 when he signed as a Free Agent with the Angels, he became a starting pitcher for the first time since his rookie season. He only started in 18 games, though, as he suffered a right shoulder injury. He also suffered a shoulder surgery in 2021 that caused him to miss a significant portion of the season. One has to wonder if moving back to the bullpen would be a better option as they can monitor his innings better. During the 2018 season, Cowboy (yes that’s his nickname) batted .290/.333/.710 with 4 home runs and a 172 wRC+ in 34 plate appearances. This gave the Zen Master (yes, another real nickname) a desire to play some games in the outfield and become a two-way player. The Reds accommodated and during the 2019 season, Lorenzen played 30 games in the outfield while batting .208/.283/.313 with 1 home run and a disappointing 53 wRC+. He was a much better pitcher with a 2.92 ERA, 24.8 percent strikeout rate, 8.2 percent walk rate, and a career best 3.66 FIP and a 1.3 fWAR in 83 1/3 innings pitched with seven saves. The two-way experiment stopped after that season. Here are Lorenzen’s stats over the last three seasons: 2020 – 33 2/3 IP | 23.8% K% | 11.6% BB | 3.87 FIP 2021 – 29 IP | 16.8% K% | 11.6% BB% | 4.17 FIP 2022 – 97 2/3 IP | 20.7% K% | 10.7% BB% | 4.31 FIP It’s hard to judge his 2020-21 seasons due to lack of innings. He has always struggled with the walks, he hasn’t averaged a strikeout an inning since 2020, and for the first time since his rookie season he allowed an average HR/9 of over 1 in 2022. He averaged 5.4 innings per start last year, but didn’t go past the fifth inning in seven of his last eight starts. In 13 of his 18 starts, he did allow three runs or less which gave him more wins (8) than losses (6), an encouraging sign. That also means he was very bad in his other five starts, two of which he allowed seven earned runs. It's hard to predict what exactly Lorenzen will do in 2023 due to the small sample sizes over the last few years. He had his best year in 2019, but that was four years and two shoulder injuries ago. He's also on the wrong side of 30, in a different role, and now with rule changes favoring hitters over pitchers. I foresee a very similar year this year, but with the natural regression of age. And who knows how healthy he is going to be. Of the five projected starting pitchers for the Tigers rotation this year, Eduardo Rodriguez (91), Matt Boyd (13 1/3), Michael Lorenzen (97 2/3), Matt Manning (63), and Spencer Turnbull (0), Lorenzen had pitched the most innings in 2022…and it was still under 100 innings. Every single one of these pitchers spent time on the injured list last year. I do not like the signing of Lorenzen. I believe the Tigers should have spent the money on someone with more durability and less prone to injury; someone with the history of starting 30-32 games over the last few seasons to anchor the rotation. As mentioned above, I think Lorenzen’s best value is in the bullpen, where his innings can be better monitored. Maybe Hinch is planning on using the piggy-back strategy and will pair him (and several other starting pitchers) with someone else and only going 3-4 innings per start. I can see a similar scenario as last year with several injuries and the Tigers struggling to get innings out of anyone; bringing up young pitchers from the minors before they are ready. We’ll just have to wait and see. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 141 IP | 7-10 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 114 K | 57 BB ZiPS DC – 139 IP | 8-10 W/L | 3.94 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 116 K | 58 BB THE BAT – 131 IP | 7-10 W/L | 4.63 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 102 K | 54 BB ATC – 131 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 107 K | 56 BB FGDC – 140 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.16 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 115 K | 58 BB RotoChamp – 135 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.27 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 111 K | 57 BB CBS Sports – 149 IP | 12-8 W/L | 3.32 ERA | 1.10 WHIP | 125 K | 44 BB ESPN – 119 IP | 6 W | 4.24 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 101 K | 54 BB My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – N/A 2022 Actual – 97 2/3 IP | 8-6 W/L | 4.24 ERA | 1.280 WHIP | 85 K | 44 BB 2023 Prediction – 123 1/3 IP | 6-10 W/L | 4.45 ERA | 1.330 WHIP | 100 K | 58 BB

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #3 – Riley “The Sophomore” Greene Riley Greene’s first year in the Majors was perfectly…adequate. In 93 games, he hit .253/.321/.362 with a very average 98 wRC+. The 21-year old had an above average 8.6 percent walk rate, but a team high 28.7 percent strikeout rate. Like every other hitter on the Tigers, power numbers were disappointing. In 2021, Greene had a .227 ISO in 84 games at AA and a .245 ISO in 40 games at AAA; in 2022 with the Tigers, this dropped to a .109 ISO. Given his age and minor league numbers, this is an area that he can easily improve on. Prior to the 2022 season, Greene was named the 4th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and was practically given the centerfield starting position. However, he broke his foot during Spring Training and missed most of the first half of the year. His injury may have had something to do with his struggles, but it’s more likely first year adjusting to the Major Leagues that was giving him troubles. Now that he has some Major League experience and (hopefully) fully healthy, he might be able to improve on his stats. That is, if the sophomore slump doesn’t get him. Surprisingly, as a left-handed hitter, Riley Greene struggled against right-handed pitching, hitting .232/.308/.348 against them and .303/.353/.395 against left-handed pitching. If Greene can improve against right-handed pitching, we will likely see higher averages and (hopefully) more power. As far as the rule changes of the shift, Greene was actually better when there was a shift (.361 average in 161 PA) than without one (.355 average in 93 PA), although it's probably small sample noise. 56 percent of his balls were hit on the ground last year. What is going to make a bigger difference for Greene is hitting more fly balls if he wants to become a power hitter. This is going to have to be a major adjustment for him because he has always hit more ground balls than fly balls during his minor league career. Greene stole 16 bases in the minors in 2021 and only 1 in the Majors last year. Even though there will be bigger bases this year, Hinch will have to be more aggressive with him if he is going to steal more bases. It may make a difference where Hinch bats him in the lineup. Lead-off will likely allow more stolen base opportunities, but he could slide in the third spot if his power develops. Sophomore players are always hard to predict because you never know how they are going to adjust. I could see him becoming the best hitter on the team in 2023, but at the same time, he could regress so much that he’ll be demoted to AAA. So, I’ll end this by saying what I hope to see from him: more fly balls, less ground balls and less strikeouts. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 548 AB | .254/.324/.393 | 13 HR | 62 RBI | 7 SB | 54 BB | 159 K ZiPS DC – 534 AB | .253/.323/.406 | 15 HR | 67 RBI | 6 SB | 53 BB | 160 K THE BAT X – 524 AB | .244/.320/.380 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 7 SB | 54 BB | 158 K ATC – 525 AB | .250/.321/.389 | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 6 SB | 52 BB | 157 K FGDC – 533 AB | .253/.324/.399 | 14 HR | 64 RBI | 6 SB | 53 BB | 157 K RotoChamp – 527 AB | .250/.320/.385 | 12 HR | 60 RBI | 5 SB | 52 BB | 159 K CBS Sports – 489 AB | .245/.317/.380 | 11 HR | 60 RBI | 3 SB | 49 BB | 153 K ESPN – 516 AB | .258/.334/.417 | 13 HR | 65 RBI | 10 SB | 56 BB | 163 K My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – 374 AB | .257/.330/.455 | 15 HR | 47 RBI | 8 SB | 38 BB | 126 K 2022 Actual – 376 AB | .253/.321/.362 | 5 HR | 42 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 120 K 2023 Prediction – 521 AB | .267/.338/.438 | 16 HR | 65 RBI | 8 SB | 54 BB | 152 K

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #2 – Eduardo Jose Rodriguez Hernandez Eduardo Rodriguez is entering his second year with the Tigers and his eighth year overall. He’s at a tricky age; at age 30 he’s either still in his prime or has already started his decline. After having a 4.74 ERA in 2021, seeing a 4.05 ERA in 2022 looks hopeful. However, looking deeper into the stats, did he really have a bounce back year? 2018 – 3.82 ERA | 3.65 FIP | 26.4% K% | 8.1% BB% 2019 – 3.81 ERA | 3.86 FIP | 24.8% K% | 8.7% BB% 2020 – N/A 2021 – 4.74 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 27.4% K% | 7.0% BB% 2022 – 4.05 ERA | 4.43 FIP | 18.4% K% | 8.7% BB% El Gualo’s ERA was close to his FIP during his 2018 and 2019 seasons. After not choosing to pitch during the COVID 2020 season, his luck flipped from 2021 to 2022; in 2021 his ERA was worse than his FIP (suggesting back luck) and in 2022 his ERA was better than his FIP (suggesting good luck). In fact, most of his stats were at or near career lows last year including FIP (tied with 2016), strikeout rate, and walk rate (tied with 2016 and 2019). This trend doesn’t look good going forward. During the 2022 season, Rodriguez suffered an injury to his ribcage and later went on the restricted list due to personal reasons. He missed a major part of the season, which could explain his poor stats. If he remains healthy for the full 2023 season and doesn’t miss a significant portion of the season, there is a good chance he can get his strikeout rate and walk rate back to career norms. Another concerning stat is his innings pitched. He has only pitched over 200 innings once in his career, in 2019. He averaged 6.0 innings/start that year. This fell in 2021, when he only averaged 5.1 innings/start. This improved slightly in 2022 at 5.4 innings/start. The number of innings starting pitchers have pitched has declined greatly over the last decade or so; only 8 pitchers had 200+ innings pitched in 2022 compared to 31 pitchers in 2012. Therefore, it is unlikely Rodriguez will reach 200 innings again, even if he logs in 30-32 starts. As mentioned earlier, with the rule changes all favoring more offense, it will also negatively affect pitchers’ numbers. Even if Rodriguez can get his strikeouts and walks back at career norms, it is likely that he’ll give up more hits, which will result in more runs and a higher ERA. League ERA was at 3.97 in 2022, first time it has been below 4.00 since 2015. It’ll be interesting to see what it’ll be in 2023. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 169 IP | 9-11 W/L | 3.96 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 152 K | 55 BB ZiPS DC – 154 IP | 8-10 W/L | 3.88 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 153 K | 51 BB THE BAT – 156 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.16 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 131 K | 50 BB ATC – 156 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.03 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 143 K | 51 BB FGDC – 162 IP | 9-11 W/L | 3.92 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 152 K | 53 BB RotoChamp – 160 IP | 9-10 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 146 K | 53 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 136 IP | 7 W | 3.84 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 138 K | 45 BB My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – 202 IP | 14-9 W/L | 3.79 ERA | 1.277 WHIP | 221 K | 68 BB 2022 Actual – 91 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.05 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 72 K | 34 BB 2023 Prediction – 128 2/3 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.20 ERA | 1.415 WHIP | 117 K | 47 BB

Bobrob’s 2023 Preseason Prediction #1 – Ednel Javier Baez Welcome to the 15th annual Preseason Predictions! I think. I lost count. It may be 16th. Anyone here good at math? There’s no pandemic or scare of a lockout this season, but there are several rule changes that’ll be in effect this year. Bigger bases, pitch clocks, limit of pickoff attempts, and shift bans will undoubtably result in more offense. Stolen bases and batting averages should increase across the board. Comerica Park will also have its own changes this season with moving in the fences. Tiger hitters should see an increase in home runs; however, triples may decrease. How will this effect individual players? Let’s find out. El Mago might benefit the most on the Tigers from these rule changes. After averaging 31 home runs from 2019-2022 (minus 2020), Javy only hit 17 home runs in his first year at Comerica. Moving the fences could help him in hitting 20+ home runs again. Javier should also benefit from the shift ban. About half of his batted balls are hit on the ground and his batting average on ground balls took a big dive in 2022: 2019 - .286 AVG on GB 2021 - .300 AVG on GB 2022 - .249 AVG on GB Overall, Javy had a batting average of .301 when there was no shift last year in 193 AB. Javier is entering his age 30 season and many players are still in their prime at that age. Some however, have peaked early and start their decline early, which may have happened with Baez when he hit .238/.278/.393 last year. This resulted in a below average 90 wRC+ (he did only strikeout 25 percent of the time, his lowest percentage since 2016). Although, last year might just have been a fluke and Javy can get back to being an above average hitter once again in 2023. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 580 AB | .241/.287/.415 | 22 HR | 73 RBI | 13 SB | 30 BB | 168 K ZiPS DC – 570 AB | .246/.289/.422 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 11 SB | 28 BB | 169 K THE BAT X – 553 AB | .249/.295/.413 | 19 HR | 13 SB | 30 BB | 156 K ATC – 555 AB | .244/.288/.414 | 21 HR | 12 SB | 28 BB | 163 K FGDC – 567 AB | .243/.288/.419 | 22 HR | 12 SB | 29 BB | 166 K RotoChamp – 553 AB | .246/.291/.420 | 21 HR | 11 SB | 28 BB | 161 K CBS Sports – 603 AB | .252/.298/.444 | 27 HR | 14 SB | 33 BB | 176 K ESPN – 561 AB | .246/.290/.435 | 24 HR | 13 SB | 27 BB | 166 K My Prediction: 2022 Prediction – 524 AB | .265/.305/.471 | 24 HR | 81 RBI | 15 SB | 25 BB | 179 K 2022 Actual – 555 AB | .238/.278/.393 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 9 SB | 26 BB | 147 K 2023 Prediction – 544 AB | .265/.304/.449 | 24 HR | 73 RBI | 10 SB | 26 BB | 162 K

Interesting. I turned off the volume when Morris was in the booth.

I remember having a conversation on the old MLB Detroit Tigers MB with someone that didn't like seeing Edwin Jackson being replaced with Max Scherzer. I said that I was pretty confident that Scherzer will end up having a better career than Jackson, but I don't think I was able to convince him.

His WAR was almost 4.0, which also included good defense. Now WAR is a flawed stat...unless it supports your argument. What is not being said enough is that Candelario was a negative on defense in 2022, and it usually doesn't get better as players age.

Yeah, a lot of it will be determined on Harris' philosophy. He may stay if only he feels he cannot fill his roster spot with someone else. But there's going to be so many players available soon, that it might not make a difference. If a player doesn't fit in what Harris is trying to build, he'll be gone. Alexander's strikeout numbers were way down in 2022 and he isn't young enough for the "potential" label. That might be enough to see him go.

His brother has a great Twitter account.

The only way I see Verlander coming back to Detroit is to sign a 1-day contract just so he can say he retired as a Tiger.

I've actually thought about doing one, but I don't want to do it alone. I wouldn't even know how to start.

Well, not extreme. This team has been a failure for years now, why keep the failure around? Everyone is calculating the $$/value to see if it's economical for Candelario to come back. But what if the problem is mentality? What if the problem cannot be seen in the stats? This isn't a simulation, this is real people. Get players that fit the team dynamic that Harris wants. Does that include Candelario? Maybe, maybe not. But you can't see that in the stats. The Tigers haven't had a winning season with Candelario on the team. Maybe he's part of the problem.

I'm in Camp Blow It All Up and Start Over.

If it's chronic, can we ever expect it not to be an issue?

I think the Tigers bullpen just just alright. They ranked 19th in WPA and 11th in RE24. They certainly weren't as good as Cleveland, Houston, or New York Yankees. But did Hinch do better than anyone else would have? Eh, maybe? Hard to say. I think if you have the talented players, they'll perform regardless of who is pulling the strings. I personally felt that he kept Soto in the closer's role for too long and he used too many relievers as starters (of course with the injuries he had little choice). I want to point out that Philadelphia is ranked 23nd in WPA and 19th in RE24 and they are one of the top 4 teams remaining. Even the traditional stats the Phillies are not ranked very high.

I think Hinch will eventually be fired. Probably not next year, but after he fails to get the Tigers to the post-season, he'll get fired.

Oh sure, Mike was really hurting financially during those times. I have no idea how he survived.

Mike also raised the payroll budget during the time that the Tigers were competitive. All Chris has done is lowered it. Maybe he'll start to raise it again. We'll see.

Throw Hinch in there too. His only winning seasons is tainted by the cheating.