I worry about turnout. If there's high turnout, then Trump will lose. If there's low turnout then he could win if his supporters are still passionate. But I question that too. Plus I don't overlook the covid death numbers. His margins were so slim that it wouldn't take much.
I guess it will come down to AZ, GA,WI, and to a lesser extent PA and NC.
Also don't overlook abortion. It's still a hot topic.
If Trump isn't the nominee then I think it will be someone like a Kemp or Youngkin who will come in at the last minute. I also have it in my head that Christie could get it. I know that's crazy considering where he is in the polls but I also remember McCain being pretty low in 2008, but that was an entirely different electorate.