I think if you are searching enough for a data point to confirm a theory then you can find it in a primary election like this with so many unusual variables. Two incumbents from the last election, a third party, a passionate issue like abortion, a clear divide on one side with a since departed candidate, early voting.... You can find what you need but I'm not convinced that's reliable. The theory is sound but I don't think these things necessarily show it.
That's my best Nate Silver impersonation.