Edman85

Player dev changes were near the end. Menzin and Sartori were promoted to AGM his final year. The performance science department was created 2020, I believe. (I remember being really excited about that hire only for it to be rendered moot by the cancelled season) But it is an undeniable fact that the analytics staff growth was mostly early in his stint if not steady throughout. There was no analytics department in 2015 (Menzin and Smith were both doing it part time). Sartori was hired in late 2015 as well as a few interns and part timers, and the staff grew to its current size roughly 2018 or so. Harris did expand things further his first offseason, and I expect the standard second offseason overhaul as more of "his guys" are available.

I don't think this is true. Yes, Littlefield and Chadd had too much say for much of his term; I will grant you that. But Menzin kept rising through the ranks, Sartori was hired and rose the ranks. Logue, etc... And the analytics staff grew from basically half a man year when he was hired to about 10-15 depending on if you include the software developers or player dev analysts among those ranks.

The point was more that the extension was signed 17 months before Avila took over.

IMO, it is pretty unserious.

Dingler is on the IL, and really hasn't even knocked the doors down in AA.

I also think pushing in and not cashing in on Michael Lorenzen at peak value would be regretted for years.

Fangraphs playoff odds as of this morning 3.0%... PECOTA doesn't update until later in the day, but 0.4% as of yesterday. I'm still selling.

Kinda... you lose the unsigned slot from your pool. Hypothetical to make the math easy. Let's say you have a 10M pool and you have signed all but a pick whose slot is 1M and plan on signing him to slot but he fails his physical. You are 500K over going in. If he signs, you are 500k over, no draft penalty. If he does not sign, your bonus pool is 9M, 500K over is 5.6% over and you lose your first rounder next year.

After a rarety score of 4 yesterday, I blew it today thinking Chris Sabo was a Royal for a hot minute.

You have to be a bit strategic about the order you lock in the bonuses... Again, if everybody is hit by a truck or fails their physical, you want to make sure you aren't over 5% over in case you don't unexpectedly lose some bonus pool. Currently 4.22% over, not including Rogers who likely went a bit over $150K. It's no coincidence McGonigle is last to sign among the Top 10 rounds.

Downside is a small decrease in revenue for the teams (I don't know the extent of the 80% guarantee I've heard come up), which could mean missing out on a free agent or two.

As Lee said, that's what they tell you, but it has always been a bonus suppression mechanism.

It is harmless, but odd and fun.

I figured this deserves its own thread.

He's fundraising off of all of this. He may just do more crimes so he can fundraise more.

Dems primarying Manchin just shows how they need more pragmatists, fewer ideologues running the show.

DD signed Miggy...

That will definitely make perspective free agents think twice about signing here

They are out from under that after this year. The Tigers are on the hook for 9 figures after this year. The Tigers would have to throw in Colt Keith to make that palatable.

Because the White Sox would block your number.

Relievers are controlled until they are no longer effective, which almost always predates six years of service time.

Dillon Dingler to the Injured List.

That uncertainty is absolutely baked in. I know it is in Pecota because they output percentile projections. I have backed those out before and looked at them, and they tend to make sense. The ones on Fangraphs have to have that built in, and whatever internal go/no-go the Tigers have will bake in whatever they think it should (and could include biomechanic/swing/mechanics data they have on some of the players). If there was no uncertainty in the projections, every team would be 100% or 0%. They aren't perfect, but they get you in the ballpark, and no matter what marginal improvements you make on the projections, the Tigers are still in a "sell" spot, but that could change by the end of next week with a 10 game winning streak.

The projections absolutely divvy out playing time and adjust for that. I don't know how you can say they don't.