04/04/2023 7:00 EDT Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons

[Deleterious]

6 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Thoughts on 2020 Draft.docx 12.7 kB · 0 downloads

Luka Garza was drafted the same year Cade was.  He has more win shares than Cade.  In fact, 52 other people from that draft have more win shares than Cade.  Don't use win shares to determine if a guy is good/bad.

[RandyMarsh]

Ivey and Duren with a couple of great box score games too bad that still wasn't enough for the Pistons to end their streak. 

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Luka Garza was drafted the same year Cade was.  He has more win shares than Cade.  In fact, 52 other people from that draft have more win shares than Cade.  Don't use win shares to determine if a guy is good/bad.

Cade has an excuse as he's played less than one full year versus most others have played two full years.

I don't have a problem using win shares understanding the context.

[Deleterious]

17 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Cade has an excuse as he's played less than one full year versus most others have played two full years.

I don't have a problem using win shares understanding the context.

You say Cade hasn't played as much so he has an excuse.  But you also compared Ball to Bey and Ball has about 60 less games played, almost a full season.

Win Shares are a bad stat but if you must use them at least use WS/48.    

[1984Echoes]

WS/48 also creates major contextual problems so no, I am ruling that out.

For example, back to the 2020 draft:

The top 9 players by WS/48 are #1 Onyeka Okwangu (#6 pick), Paul Reed (58th selection), Grant Riller (56th), Nick Richards (42nd), Xavier Tillman (35th), Haliburton, Bane (30th), Azubuike (27th), and Skylar Mars (50th).

No... WS/48 introduces small sample size and bench guy biases (decent player better than most other bench guys.. or garbage minutes, or a combo) creating noncomparable WS/48's so... no.

[1984Echoes]

Bur let me introduce a compromise:

Both.

I know WS's are Counting and WS/48 are Rate stats... so:

WS's as the starting point and WS/48 as the context. I have the top 9 or 10 by WS's listed in my word doc so I won't relist them....

It has Bey as the #6 by counting stats, but now for the context:

As you've pointed out, Ball at #7 has 60 less games (and 1500 min's) played and therefore loses on the counting side. But shifting to WS/48, Ball is at 0.97 per 48 and Bey is at 0.78 per 48. Obviously Ball is the better player. Bey has played more games/ minutes... Bey, in fact, loses to several other players just below him in WS's when WS/ 48 is taken into account (Martin Jr. at 0.95, Stewart at 0.97, etc...)

So... I don't have the final solution, or formula... but I believe that not just one of these stats suffices to tell enough of the story about a player because each has certain limitations.

This is where arguing over which player is better becomes quite entertaining as it's hard to point to definitive numbers that are absolute. There is always... context.

[Betrayer]

7 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Ivey and Duren with a couple of great box score games too bad that still wasn't enough for the Pistons to end their streak. 

They weren't just Drummond stat stuffing performances either, they both played really well. Those two are the primary reason I'm still enjoying some of these games. Couple of truly bright spots in the abysmal season. When you think about how young these kids are, what they're doing already, and how far they've come in just their rookie seasons it gives you some hope.

There's more to the NBA than the "counting stats", but let's have some fun with this...

I heard Wade and Mitchell as some ceiling comparisons for Ivey when he was drafted. Let's compare rookie seasons:

Rookie Wade vs Rookie Ivey (per 100 Possessions):
eFG: 47.8% vs 47.5%
3pt: 30.2% vs 34.3%
FT:  74.7% vs 74.3%
REB: 6.3 vs 6.1
AST 7.1 vs 8.1
TOV 5 vs 4.9
PTS: 25.4 vs 25.2

Surprisingly comparable stats with Wade being better from 2 and Ivey better from 3. People knock on Ivey's turnovers, but his assists are higher and turnovers (a tiny bit) lower than Wade's were. Wade was also 2 years older, which makes a big difference as well.

Rookie Mitchell vs Rookie Ivey (per 100):
eFG: 50.6% vs 47.5%
3pt: 34.0% vs 34.3%
FT:  80.5% vs 74.3%
REB: 5.6 vs 6.1
AST 5.5 vs 8.1
TOV 4.1 vs 4.9
PTS: 30.7 vs 25.2

Mitchell has some really good offensive numbers here, but Ivey's 3 is comparable and he has him beat on rebounds and he's crushed him in playmaking. Also, Mitchell was 21 while Ivey was 20.

------

OK, now let's do Duren. I've heard a lot of Howard and Adebayo comparisons. Let's see those rookie season comparisons:

Rookie Howard vs Rookie Duren (per 100):
eFG: 52.0% vs 64.4%
FT:  67.1% vs 61.1%
REB: 15.6 vs 17.2
AST: 1.4 vs 2.2
STL: 1.5 vs 1.3
BLK: 2.6 vs 1.7
TOV: 3.1 vs 2.5
PTS: 18.6 vs 17.8

I had to triple check that eFG to make sure it was right. Wow. Duren's also looking like a better passer. His blocks aren't where Howards were, but everything else is right there or better. This kid has some serious potential. Both were 19 years old.

Rookie Bam vs Rookie Duren (per 100):
eFG: 51.2% vs 64.4%
FT:  72.1% vs 61.1%
REB: 14 vs 17.2
AST: 3.7 vs 2.2
STL: 1.2 vs 1.3
BLK: 1.5 vs 1.7
TOV: 2.4 vs 2.5
PTS: 17.5 vs 17.8

Again, this is showing pretty well in Duren's favor. He's not the assist guy that Bam is and his FT% needs some work, but every other counting stat is right there or better for Duren in his rookie season.

[Deleterious]

I will only accept Wade comps if Ivey changes the spelling of his first name to Jaedn.

[Hart]

If the Pistons can get Ivey to play hard on defense consistently next year, I think Weaver is going to survive.  Ivey has shown enough now on offense that I do believe he will be a star.  He's a safer bet to get there at this point than Cade.  

[Betrayer]

13 hours ago, Hart said:

If the Pistons can get Ivey to play hard on defense consistently next year, I think Weaver is going to survive.  Ivey has shown enough now on offense that I do believe he will be a star.  He's a safer bet to get there at this point than Cade.  

That is definitely the big "IF" when it comes to Ivey because, as you said, offensively he looks like he could become a star. The defense is really rough though.

[Deleterious]

People forget how good Cade was post all star game last year.  21/6/6 and above average defense.  

[RandyMarsh]

Yeah and what I especially liked about Cade's play was that they weren't just empty stats(not necessarily saying Ivey's are) but his play actually led to some wins. The team was still bad but Cade's play helped them be atleast a respectable and win at a relatively decent rate the last couple months, not to mention IIRC Cade also was among the league leaders for a certain time period in "clutch points" so he was getting it done when it mattered as well. 

[buddha]

if cade had "issues" it was his 3 point shooting and his habit of waiting until the 4th quarter to start dominating.  he would spend 3 quarters watching bey and grant go one on one and then tell them to go stand in the corner in the 4th.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

if cade had "issues" it was his 3 point shooting

QFT

[Betrayer]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

if cade had "issues" it was his 3 point shooting and his habit of waiting until the 4th quarter to start dominating.  he would spend 3 quarters watching bey and grant go one on one and then tell them to go stand in the corner in the 4th.

His efficiency overall was was an issue. But young players take time.

I don't mind him looking to get everyone else involved first. Chauncey did that too and so does Chris Paul. That's a good floor general. He just needed some better players around him that could take advantage of it.

Looking forward to him and Ivey together next year - and hopefully a coach who knows how to run a simple rotation that keeps one of them on the court at all times.