2003 vs 2023

[RedRamage]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

They are 5-9, not 3-8

Dang it... I knew that.  I even fixed my formulas in excel after typing 3-8 cause I knew it was wrong.

The problem is that Baseball Reference list the results as W, L, W-wo, or L-wo.  I typed it... saw it was wrong, checked what was going on, fixed my formulas in excel, verified that it was doing the calculations right... and then posted without fixing my post...idiot.

[mtutiger]

In terms of 2003 Tiger vibes, I don't know if they are quite as bad, but the 2023 Oakland Athletics kinda have that look

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, mtutiger said:

In terms of 2003 Tiger vibes, I don't know if they are quite as bad, but the 2023 Oakland Athletics kinda have that look

The difference is that A’s management has basically run that team into the ground for business purposes. The front office that put together the 2003 Tigers were actually trying to win.

[bobrob2004]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

The difference is that A’s management has basically run that team into the ground for business purposes. The front office that put together the 2003 Tigers were actually trying to win.

Were they though?  Their big acquisitions were Ernie Young, Steve Avery, and (strangely) A.J. Hinch.  They let go of their best starter, Jeff Weaver, and starting players,  Damion Easley, Robert Fick, and Randall Simon.  They hired Alan Trammell as a gimmick more so than his managerial abilities.  The 2003 team was set up to fail.  

[Tenacious D]

23 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Were they though?  Their big acquisitions were Ernie Young, Steve Avery, and (strangely) A.J. Hinch.  They let go of their best starter, Jeff Weaver, and starting players,  Damion Easley, Robert Fick, and Randall Simon.  They hired Alan Trammell as a gimmick more so than his managerial abilities.  The 2003 team was set up to fail.  

I think they had off-field issues with Weaver and Fick.  Weaver was not dumped, either—they got Carlos Peña and Bonderman for him.  I do agree with your last statement, though.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

Were they though?  Their big acquisitions were Ernie Young, Steve Avery, and (strangely) A.J. Hinch.  They let go of their best starter, Jeff Weaver, and starting players,  Damion Easley, Robert Fick, and Randall Simon.  They hired Alan Trammell as a gimmick more so than his managerial abilities.  The 2003 team was set up to fail.  

I don't remember that the accepted wisdom in 2003 was that the Tigers were trying to lose, like the 2023 A's seem to be, but it was 20 years ago and I may have forgotten, so I'm open to the evidence if you have it.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't remember that the accepted wisdom in 2003 was that the Tigers were trying to lose, like the 2023 A's seem to be, but it was 20 years ago and I may have forgotten, so I'm open to the evidence if you have it.

My recollection is that they were pulling the plug mostly to cut expenses, that they knew they were going to lose, didn't particular care. I don't remember it being a 'tank' that had a high pick as an objectve. I don't think the Tigers in those days had ever drafted well enough (not in the least because they would never pay top $ in the pre-allotment day) to even consider 'tanking' as a rational long term strategy to get better.

[bobrob2004]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I think they had off-field issues with Weaver and Fick.  Weaver was not dumped, either—they got Carlos Peña and Bonderman for him.  I do agree with your last statement, though.

That's right, I had forgotten about the off-field issues with Weaver and Fick.  This was only Dombrowski's 2nd year with the Tigers, so I think he wanted address the off-field issues first before getting the players that were ultimately get for winning (although Pena and Bonderman were big names at the time that didn't really pan out.  And Bonderman was rushed to the Majors).  The Weaver deal was a mid-season trade, so it only happened a few months into the Dombrowski era as opposed to the off-season.  

2004 was the first year that Dombrowski made a few splashes with Rondell White, Carlos Guillén, and Ivan Rodriguez.  

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I don't remember that the accepted wisdom in 2003 was that the Tigers were trying to lose, like the 2023 A's seem to be, but it was 20 years ago and I may have forgotten, so I'm open to the evidence if you have it.

I think you can just tell by the moves that were made (or didn't get made).  2002 was also a really bad year for the Tigers, 55-106, and they did nothing to improve during the off-season.  They had 4 rookies in their regular starting lineup (Ramon Santiago, Eric Munson, Craig Monroe, and Alex Sanchez) and 2 rookies in their starting rotation (Nate Cornejo and Jeremy Bonderman).  The other pitchers in the rotation, Mike Maroth, Adam Bernero, and Gary Knotts had very little ML experience with very little success.  They may not have been actively trying to lose, but they sure weren't built to win.  

[Jim Cowan]

I believe that no Tigers team in my lifetime has ever deliberately put a bad team on the field in order to improve its draft position.

[Jim Cowan]

5 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

 They hired Alan Trammell as a gimmick more so than his managerial abilities.  

And they even screwed that up, Trammell as manager and Gibson as bench coach was backwards,

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

My recollection is that they were pulling the plug mostly to cut expenses, that they knew they were going to lose, didn't particular care. I don't remember it being a 'tank' that had a high pick as an objectve. I don't think the Tigers in those days had ever drafted well enough (not in the least because they would never pay top $ in the pre-allotment day) to even consider 'tanking' as a rational long term strategy to get better.

This comment kinda gets to it.... the organization was completely aimless and hopeless before DD showed up. "Strategy" wasn't really in their vocabulary, it was more like throwing **** at the wall and hoping it stuck (such as the Juan Gonzalez trade). And the accumulation of talent that he inherited in 2002 wasn't really anything that could be built off of. The famous "you try and trade 'em" tirade wasn't an act, they literally had little to no means to upgrade their roster coming out of 2002. Even after DD showed up, they still were flawed in a lot of ways... DD was always good at building a team through trades and free agency, but homegrown development never bore much fruit.

We complain a lot, justifiably so, about how Avila ran this organization into the ditch, and he did, but there's a recency bias when people put this current situation on the level of where the team was when Smith was fired / DD took over. Like, the Tigers aren't where we want them to be, there hasn't been enough talent that has accumulated since 2017, it'll probably take a least 2-3 more years to be competitive, but this still is a far more talented roster than the 2003 team ever was in just about every phase of the game.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

I don’t see how Avila left this franchise in substantially better shape after he was ****canned than Randy Smith did. At best, it was the same, as far as I can tell. Even those vaunted slam-dunk everyone-else-woulda-taken-them-too draft picks Avila selected, like Mize and Manning, aren’t guaranteed at this point to be any better than Jeff Weaver and Kenny Baugh were thought in 2002 to become. Riley (#4 prospect in Baseball America in 2022) and TORK! (#5 BA 2022) might end up being better sticks than Carlos Peña (#5 BA 2002) whom Randy Smith left us—might be—but again, no guarantee. Even if they are, otherwise, the system Avila left behind is, at best, no less a shambles than the system Randy Smith left. I think in practical terms, the comparison between the two is a push.

[oblong]

Smith didn't obtain Pena.  Smith was fired in April 2002, Pena was obtained that summer in the Weaver trade.

The value Avila left were pretty much gifts to him via the draft.

 

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t see how Avila left this franchise in substantially better shape after he was ****canned than Randy Smith did

It doesn't seem so now, but I think it's too early to make that call. There are still a enough Avila players coming through the system that could become useful pieces to swing the balance between his level of futility and Randy Smith's.

[Tiger337]

The string of first rounders under Smith was absolutely comical.  All he did with Detroit was make one pointless trade after another.  As bad as Avila was, I think Smith as worse.  

Edited April 21, 2023 by Tiger337

[chasfh]

Point taken on Pena, but I think the rest stands. It could be said that Mize and Manning and TORK! and Riley are gifts to Harris, but I don't think it necessarily follows that, if any or all of them inevitably become All-Stars, It's because Avila chose them to come to the Tigers. All four of them were the players anyone else would have picked in those circumstances, and it took the organization tanking for years for us to get them in the first place. Plus, the high draft picks and international signings that flopped under the prior regime was legion, and it's not inappropriate to posit that were Avila still here, any or all of these guys might well have flopped in his system, too. And of course, Al Avila also made some of the worst trades in recent history, liquidating All-Stars and future Hall of Famers for almost nothing but damaged goods in return. Although who knows, maybe that will be proven wrong by Jake Rogers and ... who else?

So I'm still not convinced that Randy Smith was much worse than Avila was, but if anyone else insists that's the case, I'll agree to disagree on it.

[Tiger337]

Apparently, the baseball gods didn't give Randy Smith many gifts.  

 

1996	Seth Greisinger	Right-handed pitcher	University of Virginia (Charlottesville, Virginia)	6	[42]
1997	Matt Anderson	Right-handed pitcher	Rice University (Houston, Texas)	1	[43]
1998	Jeff Weaver	Right-handed pitcher	California State University, Fresno (Fresno, California)	14	[44]
1998	Nate Cornejo	Right-handed pitcher	Wellington High School (Wellington, Kansas)	34§[g]	[44]
1999	Eric Munson	Catcher	University of Southern California (Los Angeles, California)	3	[45]
2000	Matthew Wheatland	Right-handed pitcher	Rancho Bernardo High School (San Diego, California)	8	[46]
2001	Kenny Baugh	Right-handed pitcher	Rice University (Houston, Texas)	11	[47]
2001	Mike Woods	Second baseman	Southern University (Baton Rouge, Louisiana)	32§[h]	[47]
2002	Scott Moore	Shortstop	Cypress High School

Edited April 21, 2023 by Tiger337

[oblong]

as best as I can determine in 5 min or research the best draft picks under Randy Smith (1996-2001) were

1998  (not a bad year for Randy actually)

Brandon Inge

Jeff Weaver

Andres Torres  (Not sure we can count him since his 'success' came like 10 years later with another org)

1999

Cody Ross (legendary around here)

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Apparently, the baseball gods didn't give Randy Smith many gifts.  

 

1996	Seth Greisinger	Right-handed pitcher	University of Virginia (Charlottesville, Virginia)	6	[42]
1997	Matt Anderson	Right-handed pitcher	Rice University (Houston, Texas)	1	[43]
1998	Jeff Weaver	Right-handed pitcher	California State University, Fresno (Fresno, California)	14	[44]
1998	Nate Cornejo	Right-handed pitcher	Wellington High School (Wellington, Kansas)	34§[g]	[44]
1999	Eric Munson	Catcher	University of Southern California (Los Angeles, California)	3	[45]
2000	Matthew Wheatland	Right-handed pitcher	Rancho Bernardo High School (San Diego, California)	8	[46]
2001	Kenny Baugh	Right-handed pitcher	Rice University (Houston, Texas)	11	[47]
2001	Mike Woods	Second baseman	Southern University (Baton Rouge, Louisiana)	32§[h]	[47]
2002	Scott Moore	Shortstop	Cypress High School

Right, this is a terrible legacy for Randy Smith. He was a terrible GM, one of the worst in baseball history.

Remember, though, how everyone was so excited for a lot of the guys Randy Smith drafted. Baseball America, the widely acknowledged experts on prospects even then, had Gresinger and Anderson in their top 50 rankings, as well as Mike Drumright, Juan Encarnacion, Gabe Kapler, and even Eric Freaking Munson, for cry eye. All of them, top 50 prospects in all of baseball, according to BA. So while it's easy to completely dismiss (and diss) Randy Smith's talent acquisition record with 20-20 hindsight, at that time, all of us, and Baseball America, were quite high on them. And they probably were good, talented baseball players who might have had very good careers, all of them. It's just that something broke along the way—same as it did so frequently with Avila.

So again, they look pretty similar to me, the main difference being that we know for a fact all of Randy Smith's top prospects busted under Dombrowski/Avila, versus we don't know yet how Avila's remaining top prospects will fare under Harris.

[Tiger337]

Matt Anderson may have been the dumbest #1 pick in MLB history.  I remember being excited that they had the first pick in the draft.  Then they signed a relief pitcher?  Not a starter who might wind up as a relief pitcher, but just a relief pitcher!  I couldn't believe it.  

Now, the Jobe pick was less than brilliant, but at least his upside was not relief pitcher.  

Edited April 21, 2023 by Tiger337

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

I don’t see how Avila left this franchise in substantially better shape after he was ****canned than Randy Smith did. At best, it was the same, as far as I can tell. Even those vaunted slam-dunk everyone-else-woulda-taken-them-too draft picks Avila selected, like Mize and Manning, aren’t guaranteed at this point to be any better than Jeff Weaver and Kenny Baugh were thought in 2002 to become. Riley (#4 prospect in Baseball America in 2022) and TORK! (#5 BA 2022) might end up being better sticks than Carlos Peña (#5 BA 2002) whom Randy Smith left us—might be—but again, no guarantee. Even if they are, otherwise, the system Avila left behind is, at best, no less a shambles than the system Randy Smith left. I think in practical terms, the comparison between the two is a push.

Randy didn't obtain Carlos Pena, nor did he draft him.

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Randy didn't obtain Carlos Pena, nor did he draft him.

I mea culpaed that an hour ago.

[mtutiger]

I'm not trying to whitewash Avila, FWIW, he was an awful GM.... but a lot of the dialog surrounding his tenure (and how he was the worst) really whitewashes Randy Smith and just how aimless and hopeless the franchise was at that time. And yeah, I think it was worse then than now.

And certainly, IDK if Tork, Greene, the pitchers and some of the other hangers on (such as Meadows or Lipcius or Wenceel Perez) ever reach their true potential, but the odds are a higher for these guys than some of the garbage that Smith and company brought in.

Some of that might be differences in scouting over time, obviously the industry uses more data than it did in the late 90s/early 2000s, but that's just what I see looking at it.

Edited April 21, 2023 by mtutiger

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

Smith didn't obtain Pena.  Smith was fired in April 2002, Pena was obtained that summer in the Weaver trade.

The value Avila left were pretty much gifts to him via the draft.