2021 NCAA Football Thread

[casimir]

I'll start this thread as a general thread since I'm sure y'all don't want me in the UM game threads.

Anywho, I had no idea what the current OT rule was and was completely befuddled when I saw the box score with "9 OT" and a slew of 2s in it.  Anyone else see that scoring and wonder why a bunch of student-athletes started running the wrong way in OT?

[casimir]

The first playoff committee rankings come out this week?  OK, I predict:

1. Georgia (no prediction necessary here)

2. Oklahoma (same)

3. Michigan State

4. Alabama

5. Cincinnati

6. Ohio State

7. Notre Dame

8. Oregon

9. Wake Forest

10. Michigan

Cincinnati gave the committee an excuse to get dropped because of its sluggish performance at Tulane (which, let's be honest, is a purely subjective metric that some power 5 teams wouldn't be dinged for).  Maybe Alabama & Cincinnati switch spots, but Alabama will be the top 1 loss choice.

It won't happen, but I'm hoping both Cincinnati and Wake Forest remain undefeated.  What does the committee do then?  Quite clearly the SEC champion will be in the top 4.  They'd easily keep Cincinnati out of the top 4 and again point to the Tulane game as the excuse.  But how will they handle an undefeated Wake Forest?

Georgia has clinched its spot in the SEC championship game already.

Minnesota has the inside track as the Big Ten West representative.  That L hosting Bowling Green doesn't stick out at all.

[casimir]

Remember to wrap up on the tackles, kids.

 

[casimir]

The MAC adding more directionals?

Edited November 2, 2021 by casimir

[Motor City Sonics]

First college football playoff rankings are in.    I told you there is NO WAY they would invite Cincinnati to the party.  They'd find reasons to keep them out.    They can go 12-0, they are not getting in.  No way a non-Power 5 gets in.  

 

1. Georgia

2. Alabama

3. Michigan State

4. Oregon

5. Ohio State

6. Cincinnati

7. Michigan

8. Oklahoma

9. Wake Forest

10. Notre Dame.  

[casimir]

10 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

First college football playoff rankings are in.    I told you there is NO WAY they would invite Cincinnati to the party.  They'd find reasons to keep them out.    They can go 12-0, they are not getting in.  No way a non-Power 5 gets in.  

 

1. Georgia

2. Alabama

3. Michigan State

4. Oregon

5. Ohio State

6. Cincinnati

7. Michigan

8. Oklahoma

9. Wake Forest

10. Notre Dame.  

I am shocked that Oklahoma was placed that low.  I'm not arguing that they should be higher, I'm just shocked they were placed that low by the committee.

I hate this committee stuff.  Bring back some BCS type algorithm so that this ranking and bowl selection isn't a back room type of frozen envelope process.

[Motor City Sonics]

50 minutes ago, casimir said:

I am shocked that Oklahoma was placed that low.  I'm not arguing that they should be higher, I'm just shocked they were placed that low by the committee.

I hate this committee stuff.  Bring back some BCS type algorithm so that this ranking and bowl selection isn't a back room type of frozen envelope process.

Make the playoff simple.   Each Power 5 Champion, however each conference determines it and 3 at large teams based on rankings.     W/L + Strength Of Schedule, some sort of formula will determines the final 3 and seeding.   No conference gets more than 3 in the final 8.   With the extra weekend make the First Round on NYD, Second Round 2 weeks later, Championship on the Sunday between the Conference Championship and Super Bowl.   Stop pretending that it's too much for the student-athletes, its the reason they are there.  

With that formula, I might look like this

1 - Georgia  (SEC Champ) vs. 8  Wake Forest (ACC Champ)   

2 - Alabama (At Large)  vs. 7  Cincinnati (At-Large)    

3 - Michigan State (Big Ten Champ)  vs. 6  Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ)   

4 - Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)               vs.   5 Ohio State (At-Large)

 

Sorry Michigan, you lost another big game, it should cost you dearly.   Cincinnati going undefeated pushes them into the mix

 

Group of 5 Playoff  (they deserve to have something to play for - Independents don't qualify, sorry Notre Dame & BYU)

Houston (AAC champ - because Cincy went to the big playoff

UTSA (Conference USA Champ)

Northern Illinois (MAC Champ)

Fresno State (Mountain West Champ)

Louisiana (Sun Belt Champ)

San Diego State (At-Large)

Coastal Carolina (At-Large)

SMU (At-Large)

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Motor City Sonics

[Motor City Sonics]

Just noticed in the standings that Eastern Michigan has the second-best overall record in the MAC, but are in the same division as Northern Illinois, who are clearly better.   Chris Creighton has done an incredible job making them relevant and competitive.   

Edited November 3, 2021 by Motor City Sonics

[Hongbit]

The first polls are relatively meaningless and mainly for hype purposes to get people talking about the playoff.  

Oregon will not be in the conversation. They are a fraud that is there solely on one early season win.  Injuries have hurt but the transfer QB they brought in has underachieved.  They have really struggled against some average teams.   I don’t see any way they make through their schedule without another loss and I think they lose 2.  

Sadly, MSU is probably a placeholder too.  I think they lose 2 of the remaining games starting this weekend.   Even with just a loss they will need huge help.
 

Bama is in an interesting spot.   They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way but will need to beat Georgia in the SEC championship to stay in.   I don’t see a 2 loss team making it in at this point even if it’s Bama.    
 

Dont sleep on either Baylor or Ok State stepping up and beating OU. I think the last team standing from this B12 group will get a spot.   
 

The cards should fall nicely for an undefeated Cincy to be in it.   If they falter somehow there could be a shot for a 1 loss ND team to sneak in but that would make an interesting decision between them and a 1 loss Cincy team that beat them in South Bend.   I’m not either have a strong enough schedule to get in with 1 loss without some major upsets happening in other places.  

If I had to guess now I’d pick Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Baylor to be in the final 4.   

Edited November 3, 2021 by Hongbit

[Motor City Sonics]

45 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

The first polls are relatively meaningless and mainly for hype purposes to get people talking about the playoff.  

Oregon will not be in the conversation. They are a fraud that is there solely on one early season win.  Injuries have hurt but the transfer QB they brought in has underachieved.  They have really struggled against some average teams.   I don’t see any way they make through their schedule without another loss and I think they lose 2.  

Sadly, MSU is probably a placeholder too.  I think they lose 2 of the remaining games starting this weekend.   Even with just a loss they will need huge help.
 

Bama is in an interesting spot.   They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way but will need to beat Georgia in the SEC championship to stay in.   I don’t see a 2 loss team making it in at this point even if it’s Bama.    
 

Dont sleep on either Baylor or Ok State stepping up and beating OU. I think the last team standing from this B12 group will get a spot.   
 

The cards should fall nicely for an undefeated Cincy to be in it.   If they falter somehow there could be a shot for a 1 loss ND team to sneak in but that would make an interesting decision between them and a 1 loss Cincy team that beat them in South Bend.   I’m not either have a strong enough schedule to get in with 1 loss without some major upsets happening in other places.  

If I had to guess now I’d pick Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Baylor to be in the final 4.   

I just don't see them giving a non Power 5 team that money.  This is rigged by and for the Power 5.   That's why they dropped them so far down.  Oklahoma, OK State, Wake Forest, Michigan and Notre Dame could all leap them at various points.

Question.   If OSU beats MSU and then Michigan beats OSU (yeah, right)......and they all finish the season with 1 Big Ten loss,  who wins the division.   The head-to-head thing couldn't be used in that scenario.      But hey, lets not get ahead of ourselves,  Indiana has given Michigan fits the last few years, that is not a gimme, then you have to go to PSU to face a desperate team.         

[casimir]

2 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I just don't see them giving a non Power 5 team that money.  This is rigged by and for the Power 5.   That's why they dropped them so far down.  Oklahoma, OK State, Wake Forest, Michigan and Notre Dame could all leap them at various points.

Question.   If OSU beats MSU and then Michigan beats OSU (yeah, right)......

Sorry, but you lost me there.

[Hongbit]

8 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Question.   If OSU beats MSU and then Michigan beats OSU (yeah, right)......and they all finish the season with 1 Big Ten loss,  who wins the division.   The head-to-head thing couldn't be used in that scenario.      But hey, lets not get ahead of ourselves,  Indiana has given Michigan fits the last few years, that is not a gimme, then you have to go to PSU to face a desperate team.         

I took a quick look at the tiebreakers and it looks like they really haven’t prepared for a situation where 3 teams in a division all have 1 loss to each other.   All of the other tiebreakers have to do with records against other teams in the division or other division which I believe would still be the same again.   Random draw is the 8th tiebreak and it could come down to that.   
 

Thankfully, Harbaugh won’t be OSU and this will all be avoided.   

[MichiganCardinal]

11 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I just don't see them giving a non Power 5 team that money.  This is rigged by and for the Power 5.   That's why they dropped them so far down.  Oklahoma, OK State, Wake Forest, Michigan and Notre Dame could all leap them at various points.

Question.   If OSU beats MSU and then Michigan beats OSU (yeah, right)......and they all finish the season with 1 Big Ten loss,  who wins the division.   The head-to-head thing couldn't be used in that scenario.      But hey, lets not get ahead of ourselves,  Indiana has given Michigan fits the last few years, that is not a gimme, then you have to go to PSU to face a desperate team.         

 

The first four are all about common opponents and head-to-head comparisons that don't work in a three-way tie where they've all lost to each other.

Quote

5. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents: (a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative. (b) In the event of an unbalanced schedule, the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents, regardless of how many non-divisional opponents each team played. If one or more teams played no non-divisional opponents, move to next step in tiebreaker.

6. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7): (a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record based on winning percentage against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams. (b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)

7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative, regardless of number of games played.

8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

Michigan's non-divisional conference opponents are Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Northwestern, which are a combined 5-11.

Michigan State's non-divisional conference opponents are Purdue, Nebraska, and Northwestern, which are a combined 5-11.

Ohio State's non-divisional conference opponents are Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska, which are a combined 8-8.

 

In such a scenario, Ohio State's victory over Minnesota would likely allow them to go to the B1G Championship game via tiebreaker #5, though that could still change in the coming weeks.

[casimir]

11 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I took a quick look at the tiebreakers and it looks like they really haven’t prepared for a situation where 3 teams in a division all have 1 loss to each other.   All of the other tiebreakers have to do with records against other teams in the division or other division which I believe would still be the same again.   Random draw is the 8th tiebreak and it could come down to that.   
 

Thankfully, Harbaugh won’t be OSU and this will all be avoided.   

Geeez, I wonder how a major conference would $plit tho$e hair$?

[Motor City Sonics]

The Big Ten used to solve ties by determining head-to-head and then which team has not been the champion for the longest time.   But that was years ago.  

Speaking of Years Ago.....

I think of the scene in Casino when the narrator says "Years Ago, Back Home" an on the screen instead of saying "Chicago, 1962", it just says Years Ago, Back Home.     I love Marty's humor.  

[casimir]

Undefeated Wake Forest is about to be formerly undefeated Wake Forest.  Still a good season for that program.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I'd laugh at Sparty losing to Purdue, but I know Harbaugh would lose too. How f****** sad is this too, that Harbaugh loses to MSU like a punk and then MSU goes out the next week and loses to Purdue. Where's all that Mel Tucker hype now?

[casimir]

Cincinnati should be pleased with Purdue.  As long as Cincinnati remembers to take care of Tulsa today.

[MichiganCardinal]

12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I'd laugh at Sparty losing to Purdue, but I know Harbaugh would lose too. How f****** sad is this too, that Harbaugh loses to MSU like a punk and then MSU goes out the next week and loses to Purdue. Where's all that Mel Tucker hype now?

I think this Purdue/MSU game was predictable from two or three weeks ago. In fact, I think someone here (not me) did predict it.

[Motor City Sonics]

Too bad there's nothing left to burn, Sparty.  

 

 

 

I've pulled a muscle from laughing. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Hey Mike Valenti, sit and spin. You and your boy Rico ran your big bleeping mouths all week and then your team went and chocked away your chances at a Big Ten Championship and CFB Playoff by losing to Purdue. Big Game Brohm does it again.

Mel who?

Edited November 6, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad

[MichiganCardinal]

MSU is more likely to finish 9-3 than 11-1.

Sets it up nicely for Michigan to choke their season away against Ohio State again.

[Motor City Sonics]

I wouldn't take tonight for granted, but I am sure the team is aware that MSU lost, so that'll probably give them a boost. 

[casimir]

The most Michigan football fan thing ever is to criticize another team’s coach for being overrated.  But I guess you’ve got to take your victory laps where you can, c’est la vie.

[Motor City Sonics]

3 minutes ago, casimir said:

The most Michigan football fan thing ever is to criticize another team’s coach for being overrated.  But I guess you’ve got to take your victory laps where you can, c’est la vie.

I would rather have Mel Tucker than Jim Harbaugh. 

 

Kenneth Walker should be the #1 Hesiman Contender at this point.   I don't think it's even close.