Trumps Presidency 2025

[RatkoVarda]

tom nichols in the atlantic

And this is where the American strikes were really a gamble: They were undertaken by a White House national-security team staffed by unqualified appointees, some of whom—including the director of national intelligence and the secretary of defense himself—Trump has reportedly frozen out of his inner circle. (Given that those positions are held by Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth, respectively, it is both terrifying and a relief to know that their influence may be limited.) The American defense and intelligence communities are excellent, but they can function for only so long without competent leadership.

...

But perhaps the biggest and most unpredictable gamble Trump took in bombing Iran was sending American forces into harm’s way in the Middle East with a team that was never supposed to be in charge of an actual war.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[antrat]

21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I'm sure that Trump's Saudi friends won't let that happen. Or who knows, maybe this was the plan all along to get prices up to 6 bucks a gallon.

Edited 9 hours ago by antrat

[Tigermojo]

Let's bomb them after they have time to move the nuclear material. It will be fun like the shell game.

Trump has been an absolute disaster for America and the world.

[guy incognito]

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

if true, now the shooting starts. The bombing runs were the easy part.

[GalagaGuy]

Iran ain't closing anything with their 19th ranked Naval forces.   The US Coast Guard could whoop their ass. 

[Motown Bombers]

I'd be more concerned about a cyber attack, especially after the doge idiots went wild through our systems and probably left some vulnerable backdoor access. 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

Iran ain't closing anything with their 19th ranked Naval forces.   The US Coast Guard could whoop their ass. 

Good old American overconfidence. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the possibility they may be able to do enough hit and run damage firing anti-ship missiles from mobile shore launchers that the US Navy gets tied up in a whack-a-mole exercise while insurers say 'forget it'. 

[GalagaGuy]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Good old American overconfidence. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the possibility they may be able to do enough hit and run damage firing anti-ship missiles from mobile shore launchers that the US Navy gets tied up in a whack-a-mole exercise while insurers say 'forget it'. 

Lets say they manage to actually hit something important, what do you think happens next?  The US Navy will obliterate them and that's not overconfidence, it's just a fact based on the military power in the region. 

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

Lets say they manage to actually hit something important, what do you think happens next?  The US Navy will obliterate them and that's not overconfidence, it's just a fact based on the military power in the region. 

obliterate what? You have to find it to hit it. We've been down this road before. The whole US Navy hasn't even been able to effectively shut down the Houthi's.

[GalagaGuy]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

obliterate what? You have to find it to hit it. We've been down this road before. The whole US Navy hasn't even been able to effectively shut down the Houthi's.

So which is it, are we being attacked by anti-ship missiles which can certainly be tracked and the launchers taken out or are we talking about a dude in sandals firing bottle rockets from behind a rock?  The US military can destroy anything they want, it's just a matter of how large of a response they unleash.  

I get it, I hate Trump too but it is absurd of you to sit here talking like the USA doesn't have the most powerful military in the world and many times over.   Suggesting that Iran can actually inflict damage and keep shipping lanes closed if the USA wants them open is ridiculous. 

[smr-nj]

Lest we forget, this is the person who’s going to be in charge of protecting us here in this country against any around and terrorist threats. No worries!

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

So which is it, are we being attacked by anti-ship missiles which can certainly be tracked and the launchers taken out or are we talking about a dude in sandals firing bottle rockets from behind a rock?  The US military can destroy anything they want, it's just a matter of how large of a response they unleash.  

I get it, I hate Trump too but it is absurd of you to sit here talking like the USA doesn't have the most powerful military in the world and many times over.   Suggesting that Iran can actually inflict damage and keep shipping lanes closed if the USA wants them open is ridiculous. 

Have you been paying any attention to what's already going on in the gulf? A rag tag of non-state actor has already been able to get  close to closing the gulf using basic shoot and scoot methods despite the presence the world's most powerful military. The US military is not sci-fi. They can't magically make constraints of space and time disappear. A truck mounted Exocet does not conveniently broadcast a beacon on its way to its launch position. Once launched, the launcher search radius can grow to roughly 314 sq miles in the first 10 min. It's a LOT of work to successfully fight that kind of guerrilla missile war and putting up a lot of close air surveillance leaves US forces vulnerable to MANPADs which I'm sure Trumps buddy Putin or even Xi would be happy to supply just to see the US get a bloody nose.

The fact that you can prevail is a totally separate question from 'at what cost'

Edited 6 hours ago by gehringer_2

[GalagaGuy]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Have you been paying any attention to what's already going on in the gulf? A rag tag of non-state actor has already been able to get  close to closing the gulf using basic shoot and scoot methods despite the presence the world's most powerful military. The US military is not sci-fi. They can't magically make constraints of space and time disappear. A truck mounted Exocet does not conveniently broadcast a beacon on its way to its launch position. Once launched, the launcher search radius can grow to roughly 314 sq miles in the first 10 min. It's a LOT of work to successfully fight that kind of guerrilla missile war and putting up a lot of close air surveillance leaves US forces vulnerable to MANPADs which I'm sure Trumps buddy Putin or even Xi would be happy to supply just to see the US get a bloody nose.

The fact that you can prevail is a totally separate question from 'at what cost'

When was the last attack on a vessel in the region?  I think you haven't been paying attention because the USA has been picking off Houthi terrorists for months now and have brought those attacks to a halt.   These almost never make the news but Central Command puts out press releases on a regular basis.  

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/

 

[oblong]

[GalagaGuy]

On the subject of my hatred for Trump........

 

[GalagaGuy]

 

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, antrat said:

I'm sure that Trump's Saudi friends won't let that happen. Or who knows, maybe this was the plan all along to get prices up to 6 bucks a gallon.

And blame Biden for it.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

Iran ain't closing anything with their 19th ranked Naval forces.   The US Coast Guard could whoop their ass. 

Don't be ignorant.

Mines everywhere in the Strait. One pirated capture of a tanker.

Or one missile hitting an oil tanker...

completely shuts it down.

It takes almost NOTHING to shut it down, and nothing the US Navy can do will stop it.

Try again.

I'll even help you: the only way the Strait of Hormuz doesn't completely shut down is if Iran holds back.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, GalagaGuy said:

So which is it, are we being attacked by anti-ship missiles which ...

No...

Not US being attacked. 

An oil tanker.

One blown up...

The Strait shuts down.

Is that too difficult to understand?

[GalagaGuy]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

No...

Not US being attacked. 

An oil tanker.

One blown up...

The Strait shuts down.

Is that too difficult to understand?

Yeah, I'm having a hard time understanding your rambling here.   No oil tanker has been blown up.   Why are you making up these absurd hypotheticals? 

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

Yeah, I'm having a hard time understanding your rambling here.   No oil tanker has been blown up.   Why are you making up these absurd hypotheticals? 

Riiiiight...

Because it's completely absurd that Iran would attack an oil tanker in Hormuz in order to shut it down...

Sort of like the Houthi's did NOT use Iranian anti-ship missiles against commercial shipping in order to shut it down off their coastlines because... that would be ABSURD!!!

What AN ABSURD HYPOTHETICAL!!!

Right?

[GalagaGuy]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Riiiiight...

Because it's completely absurd that Iran would attack an oil tanker in Hormuz in order to shut it down...

Sort of like the Houthi's did NOT use Iranian anti-ship missiles against commercial shipping in order to shut it down off their coastlines because... that would be ABSURD!!!

What AN ABSURD HYPOTHETICAL!!!

Right?

Well first of all, I don't get how a single oil tanker being hit could shut down a shipping lane that's two miles wide.  Additionally, Iran has threatened several times to shut down the Strait but never has, you know why?  Because almost all of their exports need to travel through it.   Also, China is the biggest buyer of oil traveling through the Strait so there's no way they're going to let it get shut down. 

If you haven't noticed, Iran loves talking trash and not following it up.  They're not shutting down anything. 

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

Well first of all, I don't get how a single oil tanker being hit could shut down a shipping lane that's two miles wide.

because once one is hit, it will get very tough to insure the next one. The impediment is much less Iran's capability to do serious mischief than the point that they will be cutting off their own nose to spite their face if they do since their oil won't go out either. I think they have some shipment capacity on the Caspian but they probably don't have enough infrastructure there to maintain their income.

But that's the risk - if you push them to some level of desperation. Have there been any reports at all of casualties from the raid? They obviously knew it was coming and I assume got everyone or at least near everyone out of harms way. If they managed not to kill many folks that changes the calculus also.

Edited 4 hours ago by gehringer_2