Trumps Presidency 2025

[1984Echoes]

These are different circumstances though...

So I don't believe anyone can posit exactly what they will do.

You may be correct that Iran doesn't follow up. As you've stated, there are conflicting goals/ stresses and pressures/ and circumstances in competition right now.

But to answer your question, it would be EASY to shut down the entire Strait by hitting one single tanker.

Think about it: You're an oil shipping company and you want to take your tanker into and out of the Strait of Hormuz, in which Iran has already hit one tanker.

Do you take that chance?

My contention is... Iran does NOT have to shut down the entire Straits, they only have to hit that ONE tanker...

 

And then all the other oil shippers in that area shut it down for them.

 

To answer another question: Iran says "We will allow all oil transported out of the Straits that is going to China, ours or others... but not to any other countries." They MAY be able to get away with that.

 

But Trump is in a bad position at the moment as well right now. 

Iran can disrupt oil shipments, one way or the other. Causing oil prices to rocket upward. What would an oil price shock do... to the American economy? A HIGH degree of probability that it causes a swift recession. We're teetering close to that right now as it is.

Does Trump really want to play this game?

Because this is going to be a whole lot more "tricky" than you are imagining right now.

I'm just sayin'...

 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by 1984Echoes

[GalagaGuy]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

because once one is hit, it will get very tough to insure the next one. The impediment is much less Iran's capability to do serious mischief than that the point that they will be cutting off their own nose to spite their face if they do since their oil won't go out either. I think they have some shipment capacity on the Caspian but they probably don't have enough infrastructure there to maintain their income.

If Iran were to actually attack a tanker, don't you think the next ship to pass through would have an armed escort?  You keep talking about what Iran might do but make no consideration of the protection ships would have after the first attack.   Funny thing, the more I read, it seems that China would be most hurt by shutting down the Strait so the USA might just sit back and let things play out. 

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

If Iran were to actually attack a tanker, don't you think the next ship to pass through would have an armed escort?  You keep talking about what Iran might do but make no consideration of the protection ships would have after the first attack.   Funny thing, the more I read, it seems that China would be most hurt by shutting down the Strait so the USA might just sit back and let things play out. 

how effectively will a physical escort protect against a wave skipping missile? Certainly there will be some level of protection - will it be enough to actually assure the people paying for the oil? Also, a LOT of tankers transit the gulf. The US Navy is already stretched to the limit  - we probably don't have enough ships to effectively escort all the oil moving through the gulf. We have about 75 Arlieigh Burkes, The way the Navy rotates at least a third are not at sea and you've got 6 other oceans the USN is not going to be willing to leave completely vacant. This isn't your WWII USN, it's not even Reagan's USN.

To do escorts you are going to need to drum up a lot of international support from allied navies (and TBF some are already there because of the Houthis) - but just what Trump and his crew are so good at - amirite?

Edited 6 hours ago by gehringer_2

[GalagaGuy]

34 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

how effectively will a physical escort protect against a wave skipping missile? Certainly there will be some level of protection - will it be enough to actually assure the people paying for the oil? Also, a LOT of tankers transit the gulf. The US Navy is already stretched to the limit  - we probably don't have enough ships to effectively escort all the oil moving through the gulf. We have about 75 Arlieigh Burkes, The way the Navy rotates at least a third are not at sea and you've got 6 other oceans the USN is not going to be willing to leave completely vacant. This isn't your WWII USN, it's not even Reagan's USN.

To do escorts you are going to need to drum up a lot of international support from allied navies (and TBF some are already there because of the Houthis) - but just what Trump and his crew are so good at - amirite?

The US Navy more than one system that can detect and eliminate surface traveling anti-ship weapons.  I'm not an expert on them, but I'm going to go ahead and guess they are very effective.   I'm sure other countries have similar systems as well.  

If the USA decides the Strait needs to stay open, I have zero doubt it will remain open. 

[smr-nj]

Good thing we have that great military brain and experience in Hegseth to lead us.

[smr-nj]

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/18feedpWGj/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[Motown Bombers]

Love to see how MAGA goes all in about making Iran great again.

 

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, smr-nj said:

Good thing we have that great military brain and experience in Hegseth to lead us.

Iran diplomats are headed to Russia. There's rumor that they may get nukes and a delivery system from them. It could get ugly, real ugly.

[Motown Bombers]

Donald will give Russia a strongly worded Truth Social post. 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Iran diplomats are headed to Russia. There's rumor that they may get nukes and a delivery system from them. It could get ugly, real ugly.

Don't find that credible. Iranians will want any kind of portable or anti-ship missile the Russians are willing to supply, but the Russian don't generally give away nukes. I suppose with Putin you never know. Russia was even a signatory to the JCPOA. (aka Iranian nuclear deal)

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, GalagaGuy said:

The US Navy more than one system that can detect and eliminate surface traveling anti-ship weapons.  I'm not an expert on them, but I'm going to go ahead and guess they are very effective.   I'm sure other countries have similar systems as well.  

If the USA decides the Strait needs to stay open, I have zero doubt it will remain open. 

If the Navy is sitting on any directed energy capabilities beyond what they have admitted to (HELIOS etc.), this would be when we might find out.

[guy incognito]

Just a stupid, stupid man.

[GalagaGuy]

I still can't wrap my head around a two man crew flying a 38 hour mission.  

[romad1]

This has been a random freak out generator for all my civilian relatives.   The concern for me:  China and Russia use this to do things that are anathema that they would like to do.   Russia has already done this in spades in Ukraine.  China is in the middle of one of the two periods during the year they can do cross-straits.  I haven't checked the weather in the South China Sea.  

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, GalagaGuy said:

I still can't wrap my head around a two man crew flying a 38 hour mission.  

Few parallels to that. In the bad old SAC days at the height of the cold war, the B-36s could do 40 hours unrefueled just loitering off the USSR border as part of the TRIAD. But it was a bigger crew and much bigger airplane - practically a hotel compared to a B2. Of course the fun part for those guys is they were flying with nukes whose blast they probably could not outrun if they ever had to drop one.

Edited 3 hours ago by gehringer_2

[LaceyLou]

24 minutes ago, guy incognito said:

Just a stupid, stupid man.

Who's this Donakd guy?

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, LaceyLou said:

Who's this Donakd guy?

He was watching a sports report about the Durant trade as he was posting?

[Tigermojo]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

He was watching a sports report about the Durant trade as he was posting?

Biden typed it.

[Motown Bombers]