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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Never mind this nonsense, what about Trump grabbing Melania's ass! 

 

I'm not sure this analysis is complete. Creating minority districts generally favor the GOP overall because it concentrates higher numbers of Dem voters into fewer winnable districts - IOW exactly what GOP gerrymanders try to do. Spreading out Black votes could actually create more swingable districts. In any case the outcome is going to be more complicated than this byline implies. It will certainly hit minority representation, but that's not the same thing as hurting the Dem party.

Edited by gehringer_2
Posted
1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm not sure this analysis is complete. Creating minority districts generally favor the GOP overall because it concentrates higher numbers of Dem voters into fewer winnable districts - IOW exactly what GOP gerrymanders try to do. Spreading out Black votes could actually create more swingable districts. In any case the outcome is going to be more complicated than this byline implies. It will certainly hit minority representation, but that's not the same thing as hurting the Dem party.

I think this is true.  The minority districts were positive in that more minority representation in government is good but it did create the negative aspect of less competitive districts.  However, Citizens United and other gerrymandering malfeasance is killing that anyway. 

Posted
3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm not sure this analysis is complete. Creating minority districts generally favor the GOP overall because it concentrates higher numbers of Dem voters into fewer winnable districts - IOW exactly what GOP gerrymanders try to do. Spreading out Black votes could actually create more swingable districts. In any case the outcome is going to be more complicated than this byline implies. It will certainly hit minority representation, but that's not the same thing as hurting the Dem party.

I have completely come around to having Congressional (and statewide) districts with Multiple members. Instead of 13 congressional districts, divide the state into 4 regions, maybe 5 if you give the UP it's own district. One big election, the top two or three vote getters get to go to Washington.

Same with Lansing

Posted
6 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I have completely come around to having Congressional (and statewide) districts with Multiple members. Instead of 13 congressional districts, divide the state into 4 regions, maybe 5 if you give the UP it's own district. One big election, the top two or three vote getters get to go to Washington.

Same with Lansing

Its an interesting model to be sure.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Its an interesting model to be sure.  

I've tried to model it a few times with A-I Chatgpt  keeps wanting to combine Virginia's Northern Neck with far SW Virginia. That would never work

Posted
6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm not sure this analysis is complete. Creating minority districts generally favor the GOP overall because it concentrates higher numbers of Dem voters into fewer winnable districts - IOW exactly what GOP gerrymanders try to do. Spreading out Black votes could actually create more swingable districts. In any case the outcome is going to be more complicated than this byline implies. It will certainly hit minority representation, but that's not the same thing as hurting the Dem party.

This seems backwards to me. Majority-black districts are not just “pack Dem voters to help Republicans”; Section 2 exists because Black voters were already being cracked and packed so they couldn’t elect their candidates of choice. A fair opportunity district can be both legally required and politically Democratic-leaning, but that doesn’t mean it’s a GOP-favoring gimmick. Minority representation and partisan advantage are related, but they're not the same thing, and the legal question is vote dilution—not whether Democrats lose a seat somewhere else.

Posted
1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Never mind this boring ****, talk about Trump's face on passports! 

 

$25b for pancreatic cancer research would not hurt about now.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm not sure this analysis is complete. Creating minority districts generally favor the GOP overall because it concentrates higher numbers of Dem voters into fewer winnable districts - IOW exactly what GOP gerrymanders try to do. Spreading out Black votes could actually create more swingable districts. In any case the outcome is going to be more complicated than this byline implies. It will certainly hit minority representation, but that's not the same thing as hurting the Dem party.

Also mentioned his before, but there are VRA districts in blue states too... And after the decision not clear whether these states won't just revise their own districts without these in place constraints. NY, CA, even IL (which is already gerrymandered to hell) could theoretically draw out R districts on their existing maps without VRA requirements.

I really don't like the VRA being gutted and the precedent it sets, but this is the other side of the coin as well.

Edited by mtutiger
Posted
4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also mentioned his before, but there are VRA districts in blue states too... And after the decision not clear whether these states won't just revise their own districts without these in place constraints. NY, CA, even IL (which is already gerrymandered to hell) could theoretically draw out R districts on their existing maps without VRA requirements.

I really don't like the VRA being gutted and the precedent it sets, but this is the other side of the coin as well.

yes  - as example you could probably wipe out at least one GOP district in the Detroit NE burbs by dividing part of the city into it, though redistricting is off the table in MI.

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