Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[SoCalTiger]

Maybe Max and Boras will take an 8 year deal with the understanding he makes the majors soon and can still test free agency before 30. 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Maybe Max and Boras will take an 8 year deal with the understanding he makes the majors soon and can still test free agency before 30. 

I suppose it has to figure into the overall calculus. If you know you have the guy for 'X' years and then will likely lose him, you don't want to bring him up until you are pretty sure he is ready to hit the ground running because you can't get a first  year when he may scuffle or only play part time back at the other end when he may be an all-star. I'd say that consideration probably has to trump any of the carrots the league has set out for bringing guys up earlier. So maybe you offer the player a chance to come up earlier if he'll give you back a year or so at the other end.

Edited Sunday at 09:50 PM by gehringer_2

[Cruzer1]

6 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Could he not field a routine grounder or throw to 1B?

Cause his bat doesn't need more time.

Teams usually like ther prospects to have at least 1,500 plate appearances before moving up to the majors.  McGonigle has about 750 right now. A full year in AAA will probably put him around 1,200.

[TigerNation]

4 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

Teams usually like ther prospects to have at least 1,500 plate appearances before moving up to the majors.  McGonigle has about 750 right now. A full year in AAA will probably put him around 1,200.

No lol.

That does not apply to prospects of McGonigles caliber.

[gehringer_2]

28 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

No lol.

That does not apply to prospects of McGonigles caliber.

You should have let Aaron Judge (1500 MiLB PA) and Mike Trout (1300 MiLB PA) know about that.

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

Toledo W 13-4
Lee 3/6 2RBI 2B SB (#20 on the season)
Malloy 3/5 4RBI HR 2B
Jung 1/5 BB
Anderson 2/5 BB K
Cruz 2/4 2RBI BB 2B
Valencia 0/3 2RBI BB 2K
SGL 1IP 2K
Urquidy 2IP 2H 2ER BB K

 

 

Erie L 12-2
Clark 0/4
Liranzo 0/4 3K
McGonigle 0/1 3BB

 

WM W 16-0
Pacheco 1/4 RBI BB 3K HR
Strong 2/3 RBI 2BB K HR
Elissalt 3.1IP 2H 4BB 3K

 

[Tenacious D]

11 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

Teams usually like ther prospects to have at least 1,500 plate appearances before moving up to the majors.  McGonigle has about 750 right now. A full year in AAA will probably put him around 1,200.

Your original comment was tied to your personal observation seeing him for 3 games.  What did you see in that sample to give you pause?

[Cruzer1]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Your original comment was tied to your personal observation seeing him for 3 games.  What did you see in that sample to give you pause?

The quality of his at bats.  I know I'm nit picking, but with his amazing feel for contact, he does make some easy outs early in the count.

[Cruzer1]

Also, the pitching quality he has faced, is going to improve as he moves on.

[gehringer_2]

And It's just an irreducible reality that MiLB hitting performance only projects so far. You can tear up A and double A, lose 75 pts off your OPS at AAA, lose another 75 against MLB pitchers and suddenly you are a bench player instead of a potential all-star. Maybe a guy keeps moving up the performance path, maybe he hits the off-ramp on the way. You don't really know until he does it. The example of a couple of very good AAA hitters we already have in the system that haven't been able to make the jump to Detroit on multiple tries is more typical than not. 

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

And It's just an irreducible reality that MiLB hitting performance only projects so far. You can tear up A and double A, lose 75 pts off your OPS at AAA, lose another 75 against MLB pitchers and suddenly you are a bench player instead of a potential all-star. Maybe a guy keeps moving up the performance path, maybe he hits the off-ramp on the way. You don't really know until he does it. The example of a couple of very good AAA hitters we already have in the system that haven't been able to make the jump to Detroit on multiple tries is more typical than not. 

I think the difference is that you’re normalizing McGonigle.  He’s literally a generational hitting talent, with a higher BB% than his K rate and developing power.  That rarely happens. He’s also ascended to #2 overall top prospect status in a few significant national prospect rankings (Aaron Judge was #53 at his apex on BA’s list).

Of course he could still ultimately disappoint, but to suggest that he needs 1,500 AB’s in the minors to be successful in MLB is discounting his talent, relative to others.  

I don’t want to see him rushed and I trust the org won’t let this happen, but I doubt he’ll be held to some arbitrary standards.

I think we see him by next year’s All Star break, if not sooner.

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

He’s literally a generational hitting talent, with a higher BB% than his K rate and developing power.  That rarely happens. He’s also ascended to #2 overall top prospect status in a few significant national prospect rankings (Aaron Judge was #53 at his apex on BA’s list).

I guess I would argue that  Judge being 53 on a prospect list is sort of the POV I'm taking. Judge IS a proven generational talent. Where are the 53 guys ahead of him on the prospect list?  I just think we need to respect how much uncertainty remains right up until a guy actually does it in the majors. But It is great to have guys doing so well in the system we can have this kind of debate. 

Edited Monday at 06:02 PM by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

54 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I guess I would argue that  Judge being 53 on a prospect list is sort of the POV I'm taking. Judge IS a proven generational talent. Where are the 53 guys ahead of him on the prospect list?  I just think we need to respect how much uncertainty remains right up until a guy actually does it in the majors. But It is great to have guys doing so well in the system we can have this kind of debate. 

Right, you can't bank on any prospect being a good major league player, let alone a generational talent. The  good thing is that the Tigers have more top propects than they have had in a really long time.  This gives them a better chance that a couple will emerge as above average major leaguers.  

[SoCalTiger]

Does Malloy still have a path to Detroit and the post season if his power is emerging ?

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Does Malloy still have a path to Detroit and the post season if his power is emerging ?

I'm not sure that showing more MiLB power gets to the heart of why Malloy fails in Detroit, which is that he can't barrel up pitches in the K zone against MLB pitchers. I suppose you have to analyze what he is doing in Toledo and determine if he is just getting stronger i.e - hitting the same number of pitches harder (which I would think doesn't help him stick in the majors much at all) vs actually getting his bat on a higher percentage of the strikes he sees - which is more what I think could help his cause. 🤷‍♂️

Edited Monday at 09:54 PM by gehringer_2

[TigerNation]

20 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

You should have let Aaron Judge (1500 MiLB PA) and Mike Trout (1300 MiLB PA) know about that.

 

Wyatt Langford 222 PAs.

Zach Neto 275 PAs.

Jackson Holliday 726 PAs before his first call up.

They may like to give a player a certain amount of PAs, but it is asinine to suggest they will leave a player in the minors if they think he is good enough to hit big league pitching because he hasn't gotten a certain amount of PAs in the minors.

In an ideal world they would have him get that many PAs, but McGonigle has missed a lot of time with injuries, so he's just not gonna get them. No front office would be so incompetent to watch him not be challenged in AAA and think gee, he missed out on 400 PAs in A ball, so we can't call him up.

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

Wyatt Langford 222 PAs.

Zach Neto 275 PAs.

 

you do realize those two had hundreds of college PAs and were older (22) and McGonigle came in as a prep player? So you have a rather apples/oranges comparison. NCAA ball is about equivalent to low minors play. McGonigle will be 22 in '27.

I've generally been referencing PA and BR has Jackson, a prep player, with 1017 PA in the minors. He has also totaled 0.6 WAR in 180 games, and he hasn't broken a 100 OPS+ yet. Not sure he's your best case for a fast call up.

Edited Tuesday at 12:34 AM by gehringer_2

[RandyMarsh]

I don't think there is a hard and fast rule on how many abs a minor leaguer needs or teams look for before calling them up, to me if they look ready and they feel they can help the big leagues team than they should and probably will call them up. In regards to guys like McGonigle and Clark what is impressive about their numbers is not just the raw slash numbers but the advanced statcast numbers and plate discipline numbers.

These aren't huge OPS numbers with terrible peripherals like whiff rates, low walk numbers etc., they are getting these numbers while showing a great understanding of the strike zone according to the advanced metrics. To me that usually means they aren't far away so I would be shocked that barring a major setback that they aren't on the Tigers by the summer of 2026. 

[TigerNation]

47 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

you do realize those two had hundreds of college PAs and were older (22) and McGonigle came in as a prep player? So you have a rather apples/oranges comparison. NCAA ball is about equivalent to low minors play. McGonigle will be 22 in '27.

I've generally been referencing PA and BR has Jackson, a prep player, with 1017 PA in the minors. He has also totaled 0.6 WAR in 180 games, and he hasn't broken a 100 OPS+ yet. Not sure he's your best case for a fast call up.

You do realize even if you use their minor+college PAs (750 for Neto, 832 for Langford) they will be in the same range as McGonigle, who will be over 800+ PAs by the end of the season. Now it's apples to apples and the point is proven the exact same.

Jackson was called up and struggled, so he was sent back down to get those PAs. He has 726 when he was first called up, which is all that's relevant to this discussion.

Edited Tuesday at 01:12 AM by TigerNation

[Shinzaki]

Marcelo Mayer is a generational talent...at least thats how he was billed..and he put in 1400 abs in the minors.  Hitting 228 this year in the majors

[RandyMarsh]

7 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Marcelo Mayer is a generational talent...at least thats how he was billed..and he put in 1400 abs in the minors.  Hitting 228 this year in the majors

Corbin Carroll was drafted out of High School, had 660 Minor League at bats before getting called up late in 22, excelled to finish the year then went on to finish in the top 5 in MVP and win ROY the following year. Another example is Bobby Witt had 700 PAs before being called up and he's been one of the best players in baseball since. Some guys need more time while others don't. 

[Shinzaki]

1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

Corbin Carroll was drafted out of High School, had 660 Minor League at bats before getting called up late in 22, excelled to finish the year then went on to finish in the top 5 in MVP and win ROY the following year. Another example is Bobby Witt had 700 PAs before being called up and he's been one of the best players in baseball since. Some guys need more time while others don't. 

That's why I trust the judgement of the people who decide that sort of thing for the Tigers...

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Corbin Carroll was drafted out of High School, had 660 Minor League at bats before getting called up late in 22, excelled to finish the year then went on to finish in the top 5 in MVP and win ROY the following year. Another example is Bobby Witt had 700 PAs before being called up and he's been one of the best players in baseball since. Some guys need more time while others don't. 

yeah - Carroll and Witt were both guys with the lost year. If they were at one of the camps they were probably getting some kind of work in, for whatever that was worth. So Witt was 22 in his first season and Corbin was 22 in his first full season also after 30 games the season before.

If you are hoping to see McGonigle in the majors at 21 for more than a cup of coffee, I'd say Trout is still your best hoped for example as he did play a full season in his age 20 year and was an impact player,  even if he did have more minor league PA than McGonigle will get to at that age. So, not asking for much......

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:01 AM by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

Closer to home, HS draftee Riley Greene had 792 AB’s at age 21, prior to getting called up.

We can produce plenty of examples for both ends of this debate, but we should all agree that there is no set number of AB’s required for every prospect.

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Closer to home, HS draftee Riley Greene had 792 AB’s at age 21, prior to getting called up.

We can produce plenty of examples for both ends of this debate, but we should all agree that there is no set number of AB’s required for every prospect.

True. Though Riley is another 'lost year' player and he probably only sticks with a weak MLB team given his performance in '22. Good team/bad team is not even an aspect we've talked about but of course is a big part of who might get called up early and who doesn't. A lot of stuff depends on things beyond the player. McGonigle's probability of seeing Detroit next season could swing on a lot factors unrelated to him- what if they sign Torres? What if McKinstry has another good season? or you can game it out the opposite way - Skubal gets hurt, Jobe doesn't make it back, they are 15 out at the ASB. 😱