Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[Tenacious D]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

True. Though Riley is another 'lost year' player and he probably only sticks with a weak MLB team given his performance in '22. Good team/bad team is not even an aspect we've talked about but of course is a big part of who might get called up early and who doesn't. A lot of stuff depends on things beyond the player. McGonigle's probability of seeing Detroit next season could swing on a lot factors unrelated to him- what if they sign Torres? What if McKinstry has another good season? or you can game it out the opposite way - Skubal gets hurt, Jobe doesn't make it back, they are 15 out at the ASB. 😱

Agree circumstances will factor in, but hard to see them not being a contender and likelihood of resigning Torres seems very remote.  Even if they do give him the QO and he accepts, no one is blocking him at SS.

[TigerNation]

Merril is another, had 889 PAs, and he ended his year 20 season in AA with a .782 OPS in 211 PAs.

He then made the opening day roster, skipping AAA entirely, and proceed to have a 126 OPS+ and a 4.4 WAR as a 21 year old.

Juan Soto had 512 PAs, only 35 of which were in AA before he was called up and posted a 16% BB% and a 146 wRC+ in 494 PAs as a freaking 19 year old.

Just looking at total games played in AAA before their first call ups:

Vlad 39, Witt 63, Carrol 33, Greene 55, Trout 0, Mayer 43, Holliday 10.

What's more relevant is how much time they spend at the upper level of the minors, once somebody shows they are too good at AAA, they are called up fast.

There is no expectation that McGonigle will take until August of next year to be called up. He will absolutely have a shot to earn his was onto the opening roster in Spring Training, and if not, don't expect more than 50-60 games in AAA if he performs how he's projected to.

 

[Cruzer1]

8 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Merril is another, had 889 PAs, and he ended his year 20 season in AA with a .782 OPS in 211 PAs.

He then made the opening day roster, skipping AAA entirely, and proceed to have a 126 OPS+ and a 4.4 WAR as a 21 year old.

Juan Soto had 512 PAs, only 35 of which were in AA before he was called up and posted a 16% BB% and a 146 wRC+ in 494 PAs as a freaking 19 year old.

Just looking at total games played in AAA before their first call ups:

Vlad 39, Witt 63, Carrol 33, Greene 55, Trout 0, Mayer 43, Holliday 10.

What's more relevant is how much time they spend at the upper level of the minors, once somebody shows they are too good at AAA, they are called up fast.

There is no expectation that McGonigle will take until August of next year to be called up. He will absolutely have a shot to earn his was onto the opening roster in Spring Training, and if not, don't expect more than 50-60 games in AAA if he performs how he's projected to.

 

They won't call him up in the middle of the year, and give up the chance for a first round pick.

[4hzglory]

40 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

They won't call him up in the middle of the year, and give up the chance for a first round pick.

Exactly, if they don't make it out of camp, and unless they don't have options due to injuries/etc, Clark and McGonigle will likely be called up the day they will maintain their rookie eligibility for 2027.  

[Edman85]

There is no guarantee of PPL picks in 2027 with thr current CBA expiring. 

[4hzglory]

6 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

There is no guarantee of PPL picks in 2027 with thr current CBA expiring. 

Good point 

[TigerNation]

13 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

They won't call him up in the middle of the year, and give up the chance for a first round pick.

He'll either be up within two weeks of opening day or the Tigers will miss out on the chance for a pick.

They won't keep him down an extra three months just because of the pick incentive. 

The Red Sox literally just had the same scenario the Tigers will be facing and they called Anthony up June 9th.

If McGonigle has a 140-150+ wRC+ and maintains a double digit walk rate and low teens K rate through May, there is a 0% chance he won't be called up sometime in June. 

[TigerNation]

McGonigle 2-4 with a BB and HR tonight.

[Tenacious D]

4 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

McGonigle 2-4 with a BB and HR tonight.

Only 700 more AB’s to go!

<ducks>

[RatkoVarda]

could be SSS, or crappy AAA pitching, but Baddoo has been on fire for 2 months - putting together a nice AAA season - some other team should give him a shot in 2026

[gehringer_2]

10 hours ago, TigerNation said:

McGonigle 2-4 with a BB and HR tonight.

LOL - but I think he was also 0 for the previous three games. The walk rate is great, and he is hitting the ball over the fence, though his contact rate is down since promotion, but the sample size is too small to mean anything.

[4hzglory]

8 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

could be SSS, or crappy AAA pitching, but Baddoo has been on fire for 2 months - putting together a nice AAA season - some other team should give him a shot in 2026

It is also more evidence that for some, the difference between AAA and the majors is a significant hurdle.  Even Jung, couldn't hit for power at all in Detroit, but has double digit homers in Toledo.  Malloy is another example.  It doesn't mean they don't have a chance, but it means numbers at a level don't necessarily mean if the player is going to succeed (or fail) at the next level.  What are their at bats like?  What is their statcast data showing?  etc

[TigerNation]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL - but I think he was also 0 for the previous three games. The walk rate is great, and he is hitting the ball over the fence, though his contact rate is down since promotion, but the sample size is too small to mean anything.

What are his contact rates before and after promotion? His K rate is essentially the same.

[LongLiveMaroth]

Toledo L 5-4
Lee 1/4 2B
Malloy 1/4 RBI
Jung 0/4 2K
Anderson 1/4 2B
Cruz 0/3 BB 2K
Dobnak 5IP 3H 2ER 2BB 8K

 

Erie W 4-3
Clark 0/5 K
Liranzo 0/4 BB K
McGonigle 2/4 2RBI BB K HR
Briceno 0/5 3K
Hamm 3IP 4H 2ER 2BB 4K
 

 

WM W 2-1
Graham 0/4 K
Pacheco 1/4 K
Strong 1/3 RBI 2B
Smith 1IP BB

 

 

Lakeland L 5-4
Dumesnil 0/2 3BB
Goodman 1/4 BB K
Rucker 0/2 2BB K
Warwick 1/3 BB K
Wetwiska 2IP 3H ER BB K
Silva 4IP 4H 3ER 3BB 2K

[SeattleMike]

5 hours ago, TigerNation said:

What are his contact rates before and after promotion? His K rate is essentially the same.

His BABIP is 100 points lower in AA than it was in A+. 

[monkeytargets39]

On 8/26/2025 at 11:48 AM, Edman85 said:

There is no guarantee of PPL picks in 2027 with thr current CBA expiring. 

I’m not convinced Harris would wait that long to call up players that absolutely would help the big club regardless.  We’d really rather pay Gleyber Torres 25 mil a year to re-sign for multiple years than just call up a guy on a rookie deal who will more than likely be way better than Torres ever was?

[Shinzaki]

the guy who hasn't played above AA is going to be way better than the all star 2b?  Might want to pump the brakes on the hype mobile

[papalawrence]

Harris and Greenberg said nobody is jumping levels. So unless you think they're lying, it ain't happening until mid 2026 at the earliest

[monkeytargets39]

49 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

the guy who hasn't played above AA is going to be way better than the all star 2b?  Might want to pump the brakes on the hype mobile

McGonigle career minor league #s in 3 seasons:

.316/.419/.934

 

Torres in 6 minor league seasons:

.285/.363/.783

 

[Shinzaki]

Torres ...proven major league player.  McGonigle quality minor league player

[TigerNation]

3 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

His BABIP is 100 points lower in AA than it was in A+. 

Ok.