Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[Tenacious D]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

True. Though Riley is another 'lost year' player and he probably only sticks with a weak MLB team given his performance in '22. Good team/bad team is not even an aspect we've talked about but of course is a big part of who might get called up early and who doesn't. A lot of stuff depends on things beyond the player. McGonigle's probability of seeing Detroit next season could swing on a lot factors unrelated to him- what if they sign Torres? What if McKinstry has another good season? or you can game it out the opposite way - Skubal gets hurt, Jobe doesn't make it back, they are 15 out at the ASB. 😱

Agree circumstances will factor in, but hard to see them not being a contender and likelihood of resigning Torres seems very remote.  Even if they do give him the QO and he accepts, no one is blocking him at SS.

[TigerNation]

Merril is another, had 889 PAs, and he ended his year 20 season in AA with a .782 OPS in 211 PAs.

He then made the opening day roster, skipping AAA entirely, and proceed to have a 126 OPS+ and a 4.4 WAR as a 21 year old.

Juan Soto had 512 PAs, only 35 of which were in AA before he was called up and posted a 16% BB% and a 146 wRC+ in 494 PAs as a freaking 19 year old.

Just looking at total games played in AAA before their first call ups:

Vlad 39, Witt 63, Carrol 33, Greene 55, Trout 0, Mayer 43, Holliday 10.

What's more relevant is how much time they spend at the upper level of the minors, once somebody shows they are too good at AAA, they are called up fast.

There is no expectation that McGonigle will take until August of next year to be called up. He will absolutely have a shot to earn his was onto the opening roster in Spring Training, and if not, don't expect more than 50-60 games in AAA if he performs how he's projected to.