Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[KL2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I'd rather have Skubal, but the playoffs are still largely a crapshoot.  Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of his era, didno do much in the playoffs.  Skubal lost the deciding game last year.  You do want to have whatever playoff advantage you can get though (and elite starting pitching is probably the best way to do that).  I like the four year $160 million idea.  I hope those kinds of contracts become more popular.  It's not the money that makes long-term contracts terrible.  It's the years.  

They wont for elite players. Cause you are putting yourself at a real risk. 10 years 300 million is 300 million no matter what. If he takes four, gets hurt he will never come close to that 300 in total.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, KL2 said:

They wont for elite players. Cause you are putting yourself at a real risk. 10 years 300 million is 300 million no matter what. If he takes four, gets hurt he will never come close to that 300 in total.

The players won't like it, but if it becomes common practice for teams to avoid those long-term deals, they will have to accept shorter term deals.  

[papalawrence]

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

You're using the wrong metric.

 

The metric is not the Regular Season, in which you are pretty much correct. Not worth an insane cost for one pitcher.

The correct metric is the Playoffs and the World Series.

In the playoffs... and hopefully a few World Series...

do you want above average Mize plus above average Jobe plus average Joe Blow starting 3 games? That tells me "lose in the first round".

Or do you want Mize/ Jobe and Insane Ace Skubal in those 3 games? I'm talking about 2027-2030...

I'll pay the money to have Aces in the Playoffs instead of just Jacks.

I'm with Chas: 4 years, $160 Mill+. 

It's not the AAV, it's the excess years that get ya'.

 

If Max and JV got 2-3 years at 43 mil per approaching age 40, I would think Skubal would be looking at 5/225-250. I think that's the minimum he might consider, should he continue his elite level through to free agency. But again, I also believe someone will offer him 9/400

[gehringer_2]

10 hours ago, chasfh said:

As for signing Skubal long-term, I would rather sign him for four years and 188 million than seven years and 188 million. I’m more worried about carrying a gimpy, limpy mid- to late-30s ex-fireballer during his dotage than I am about paying an out-of-range AAV. I’ve long been more scared of the years than the money. Just look back in our own recent history and you can understand why.

QFT

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

This makes sense as things stands. The main mitigating factor is whether Baseball will undertake any rules changes in an attempt to reestablish the primacy of starting pitchers. They are on record as hoping to do so.

but do they have any clue how to do it? About the only things that would have any positive effect on pitchers are a deader ball and larger Zone. They won't do the 1st because their addicted to the long ball, and they can't do the second without sending K's even higher. You can change the rules for force pitchers to go deeper, that's only going to injure more pitchers.

If I wanted to try something more out of the box, I'd set 34 or 35oz minimum weight on a bat and move the mound back a foot or foot and a half in one of the lower leagues and see what happens.

[1984Echoes]

Or raise the mound two inches.

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Or raise the mound two inches.

I wonder if the bio-mechanical analysis available today could/would show if throwing a little more downhill affects the physiological stress significantly - certainly something someone could take a deep dive into. Pitchers obviously threw a lot more when the mound was 15", but so many things have changed since then you can't tell anything from that history, someone really should look at mound height again in the context of the current game.

[chasfh]

wt

Edited May 3 by chasfh

[HeyAbbott]

I find this Skubal conversation fascinating. I think Boras starts the bidding at 8/550, with a settlement at around 6/450 by the Dodgers. He will never sign for a paltry 200 mil.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

He's not getting higher than 35 Mil at the high end. I could see 35/8 for a total of 280. But 75 mil a year? Bruh.....

[Nate7474]

7 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

He's not getting higher than 35 Mil at the high end. I could see 35/8 for a total of 280. But 75 mil a year? Bruh.....

I wouldn’t be surprised to see 40mil a year or a large deferral amount for him depending on what he prefers to make up the difference. Lefties that have been dominant and improving are rare. If he can stay completely healthy this year that would put the injury concerns behind him as well I think. What keeps the contract a little lower is that fact he’s a couple years older than preferred for those large contracts. 

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

He's not getting higher than 35 Mil at the high end. I could see 35/8 for a total of 280. But 75 mil a year? Bruh.....

It depends if the contract is signed while he is still under control (this year or this offseason) or as a FA.  If he continues what he has done since August 2023,  can see him getting close to $40 mil/yr over 6-7 years as a FA, but may be closer to $35-7 mil average if he signed right now as his arbitration number for 2026 is probably around $20 mil.

My sample proposal.

2026 - $20 mil

2027 - $40 mil

2028 - $40 mil

2029 - $40 mil

2030 - $40 mil - opt out

2031 -$35 mil - opt out

2032 - $30 mil

Total 7 years $245 mil with opt out after 2030 and 2031 as well as vesting option for 2033 for $30 mi depending on innings.  $180 mil over 5 years (including his last arbitration year) before opt outs.  Maybe even bump 2031 and 2032 (and  2033 vesting) numbers $5 mil each if he is top 3 cy young in 2029 or 2030.   If need to put opt out after 2029 to get it done, do it.

Edited May 5 by 4hzglory

[papalawrence]

Gerrit Cole got 9/324 in 2020 when he was 29. I don't see Boras settling for less. And JV and Max got 2-3 year contracts @ 43 mil per approaching age 40. If Skubal agrees to a shorter deal he will be north of 40 per. Maybe even 6/270, something like that. He will get those kind of offers if he remains elite with no further injuries 

[Hongbit]

Chris will not only sign Skub to a 7 year deal until his retirement.  He will then be named President and GM and be given a secret lifetime contract to stay in that role however long he chooses with no oversight or accountability.  

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I'm all for him signing a 7-8 year deal with opt outs after 3 or 4. Heck I'd even offer the opt outs. Get the best of him, let him walk as he gets older to alleviate the risk. Love Skub, but 40/year for 9 years, I don't see it. 

[papalawrence]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Chris will not only sign Skub to a 7 year deal until his retirement.  He will then be named President and GM and be given a secret lifetime contract to stay in that role however long he chooses with no oversight or accountability.  

They will name a pizza after him

[chasfh]

17 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Gerrit Cole got 9/324 in 2020 when he was 29. 

And he is sitting down for the whole season at age 34 while the “juggernaut” Yankees scuffle along at 19-16. He also missed the whole first half of last year. He made about $50 million for the pleasure of doing so.

[4hzglory]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

And he is sitting down for the whole season at age 34 while the “juggernaut” Yankees scuffle along at 19-16. He also missed the whole first half of last year. He made about $50 million for the pleasure of doing so.

Yep, I wonder if we will see anymore 9 year contracts like that.  I could see Skubal ending up around 6 - 270 if he waits until FA.  So add $5 mil to each of the seasons in my original proposal and you are at 7 for $280 with the first year being his arbitration year.  He locks it in 1 season early and protects himself from the chance of getting injured.  

 

2026 - $25 mil

2027 - $45 mil

2028 - $45 mil

2029 - $45 mil

2030 - $45 mil - opt out

2031 -$40 mil - opt out

2032 - $35 mil

[chasfh]

Just now, 4hzglory said:

Yep, I wonder if we will see anymore 9 year contracts like that.  I could see Skubal ending up around 6 - 270 if he waits until FA.  So add $5 mil to each of the seasons in my original proposal and you are at 7 for $280 with the first year being his arbitration year.  He locks it in 1 season early and protects himself from the chance of getting injured.  

 

2026 - $25 mil

2027 - $45 mil

2028 - $45 mil

2029 - $45 mil

2030 - $45 mil - opt out

2031 -$40 mil - opt out

2032 - $35 mil

This seems like a reasonable contract although, assuming you mean a team opt out, I do wonder whether he would not only flatly reject this structure because of team opt-outs, but also take us off his list because of the insult. (By "he", I mean the team of Boras and Skubal, not just Skubal the man.)

[papalawrence]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

And he is sitting down for the whole season at age 34 while the “juggernaut” Yankees scuffle along at 19-16. He also missed the whole first half of last year. He made about $50 million for the pleasure of doing so.

I agree, and believe there will be teams, likely including the Yankees who will pony up an even larger contract for Skubal. 

[oblong]

The thing is... the Tigers and team Boras know all of this.  We aren't going to come up with a proposal that they haven't considered, either of the sides. There's no secret sauce or magic.

And Boras works for Skubal.  I see lots of comments like "No was Boras lets that happen..." all the time.  Ultimately it's up to the player.  The player has a responsibility to themselves and to his peers and those who follow. But that doesn't mean if Boras wants to be as cuthroat as possible the player has to go along. If there is such a thing as sentimental feelings or 'hometown discounts' that's ok.  Boras has to go along with it if that's what his client prefers. 

 

 

[4hzglory]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

This seems like a reasonable contract although, assuming you mean a team opt out, I do wonder whether he would not only flatly reject this structure because of team opt-outs, but also take us off his list because of the insult. (By "he", I mean the team of Boras and Skubal, not just Skubal the man.)

No, I mean player opt out.  I'm certain they wouldn't accept a team opt out

[papalawrence]

8 minutes ago, oblong said:

The thing is... the Tigers and team Boras know all of this.  We aren't going to come up with a proposal that they haven't considered, either of the sides. There's no secret sauce or magic.

And Boras works for Skubal.  I see lots of comments like "No was Boras lets that happen..." all the time.  Ultimately it's up to the player.  The player has a responsibility to themselves and to his peers and those who follow. But that doesn't mean if Boras wants to be as cuthroat as possible the player has to go along. If there is such a thing as sentimental feelings or 'hometown discounts' that's ok.  Boras has to go along with it if that's what his client prefers. 

 

 

While that's true, has there ever been a Boras client accept a smaller contract to stay with a certain team? It does happen (Cleveland with Ramirez, AZ with Burns). But generally, players choose Boras for a reason - to get the best contract. I hope I am wrong. I want him to stay.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, oblong said:

The thing is... the Tigers and team Boras know all of this.  We aren't going to come up with a proposal that they haven't considered, either of the sides. There's no secret sauce or magic.

And Boras works for Skubal.  I see lots of comments like "No was Boras lets that happen..." all the time.  Ultimately it's up to the player.  The player has a responsibility to themselves and to his peers and those who follow. But that doesn't mean if Boras wants to be as cuthroat as possible the player has to go along. If there is such a thing as sentimental feelings or 'hometown discounts' that's ok.  Boras has to go along with it if that's what his client prefers. 

 

 

I agree with all this, although I would only say that although it's true Boras works for Skubal, I think it's unlikely he's going to meddle much with what Boras does, or even provide firm guidance for what should be negotiated by Boras, who's been through this rodeo since way before Skubal was born so he knows exactly how this works, and Skubal has little if any idea about that. I think it's most likely that Boras drives the negotiation process 100%, and his clients' involvement is limited to following Boras's recommendation on whether to accept or reject any offer he presents to the player.

[RatkoVarda]

Passan spitballing 10/400+ for Skubal

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45006796/mlb-2025-contracts-passan-predicts-megadeals-600-million-henderson-de-la-cruz-tucker-skenes-skubal