Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Shelton]

All of this talk about what was offered in the past isn’t remotely relevant. Wake me when someone reports what the tigers are currently offering, and then we can start talking about how far apart they actually are and how much of a gap there is to bridge. 
 

I hate this part of the offseason. Go jays. Just get it over with. 

[papalawrence]

6 hours ago, Shelton said:

All of this talk about what was offered in the past isn’t remotely relevant. Wake me when someone reports what the tigers are currently offering, and then we can start talking about how far apart they actually are and how much of a gap there is to bridge. 
 

I hate this part of the offseason. Go jays. Just get it over with. 

I agree! Heyman is stirring up fodder for social media and it worked. My feeds are exploding with silly trade scenarios from other teams, and it has given me a headache.

[IdahoBert]

A few minutes ago, I did a quick search of “Skubal” and according to THE TIMES OF INDIA the Atlanta Braves are devising a trade to get Skubal, but they’re not offering anything in return. Probably a bad deal. 

[papalawrence]

6 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

A few minutes ago, I did a quick search of “Skubal” and according to THE TIMES OF INDIA the Atlanta Braves are devising a trade to get Skubal, but they’re not offering anything in return. Probably a bad deal. 

The deals posted in media are ludicrous. Since Skubal is a rental, people think Detroit will trade him relatively cheap, which will never happen

[4hzglory]

39 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

The deals posted in media are ludicrous. Since Skubal is a rental, people think Detroit will trade him relatively cheap, which will never happen

Correct from Detroit’s end, but for those on our side expecting a huge haul, those proposals line up more with what other top end players with 1 yr on their contract have gotten.  Which is why in our position of contending, it doesn’t make sense to move him IMO.

[chasfh]

We should probably remember if the Tigers were to trade Skubal, they could kiss Bichette or Bregman or Tucker or Cease or just about any other halfway decent free agent goodbye. There’s no way any good player is going to want to come to a team that’s just traded their two-time Cy-Young-winning bird in the hand for two in the bush, and they are not making any decision to come to Detroit before they know that bird is definitely staying here.

And this doesn’t even take into account the effect such a trade by a team that’s on a two-time LDS run would have on the rest of the guys who are already here, as well as the guys who are due to come up. Who’s going to gladly bust their ass for a team that purposely trades their way out of playoff contention?

Skubal ain’t going anywhere. We’re building around him for next season.

[IdahoBert]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Who’s going to gladly bust their ass for a team that purposely trades their way out of playoff contention?

Skubal ain’t going anywhere. We’re building around him for next season.

This makes a lot of sense. 

[4hzglory]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

We should probably remember if the Tigers were to trade Skubal, they could kiss Bichette or Bregman or Tucker or Cease or just about any other halfway decent free agent goodbye. There’s no way any good player is going to want to come to a team that’s just traded their two-time Cy-Young-winning bird in the hand for two in the bush, and they are not making any decision to come to Detroit before they know that bird is definitely staying here.

And this doesn’t even take into account the effect such a trade by a team that’s on a two-time LDS run would have on the rest of the guys who are already here, as well as the guys who are due to come up. Who’s going to gladly bust their ass for a team that purposely trades their way out of playoff contention?

Skubal ain’t going anywhere. We’re building around him for next season.

100%

[papalawrence]

Dan Dickerson's thoughts on this matter

 

Dan Dickerson shares what Detroit Tigers should do with Tarik Skubal https://share.google/XoA7vGrsfz6qB1ftn

[IdahoBert]

The 2025 Cy Young Award winners will be announced on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, at 7pm EST. 

[papalawrence]

14 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

The 2025 Cy Young Award winners will be announced on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, at 7pm EST. 

I expect that announcement to raise the 400 conversation to 425.

[papalawrence]

I believe Randy Johnson won 4 consecutive CY. Wonder how much prime Big Unit would fetch in today's market?

[1984Echoes]

The last 2 in-a-rows were:

DeGrom 2018-19

Scherzer 2016-17

Kershaw 2013-14

Lincecum 2008-09

Martinez 1999-2000

Clemens 1997-98

And yes... Randy Johnson (4) consecutive 1999-2002.

Skubal should easily join the top 6 above with a 2 in-a-row.

Can he get more? Or more consecutives?

[Tiger337]

Greg Maddux also had four consecutive, but it came earlier

 

[4hzglory]

From mlbtraderumors.com on top 40 trade candidates:  I definitely agree with their analysis and the chances of him actually being traded.

 

40. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers | projected $17.8MM salary; controlled via arbitration through 2026

Wishcasting on a trade of Skubal from other fan bases began before the Tigers were even eliminated from the postseason. Skubal is entering his final season of club control and is likely to be named American League Cy Young Award winner for the second consecutive season later this month. As a Boras-repped ace with a pair of Cy Youngs under his belt, the chances of him signing an extension range from minuscule to nonexistent. That’s led to plenty of calls — even some from Detroit fans — for the Tigers to cash in on a significant return.

The chances of that actually happening only seem marginally higher than those microscopic chances of an extension, however. The Tigers are firmly in win-now mode. At his end-of-season press conference, president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke of World Series aspirations and various avenues to improve his club for 2026. Significant as a return for Skubal might be, there’s basically no plausible scenario where the Tigers are better next year after trading their ace.

That we’ve seen several teams move their top players in the final year of club control in recent seasons only fans the flames. The Astros (Kyle Tucker), Brewers (Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams) and Padres (Juan Soto) all come to mind as prominent examples. However, each of those teams was facing considerable financial pressure. Astros owner Jim Crane was seemingly adamant about remaining under the luxury tax in 2025 at the time of the Tucker trade. The Brewers (as previously noted with Peralta) always listen on their top players late in arbitration. The Padres payroll outlook had changed after the unfortunate passing of owner Peter Seidler.

There’s no such pressure in Detroit. Quite the opposite, in fact. Javier Baez and Colt Keith are the only players signed to guaranteed deals beyond the 2026 season. Baez’s contract runs through 2027. Keith’s $4.775MM average annual value is a drop in the bucket. The Tigers may not be likely to extend Skubal before he gets to free agency, but they have the payroll space to sign him long-term even if (when) he reaches the market.

Skubal is included on this list primarily because teams will try to pry him loose. Harris probably won’t expressly turn offers away and isn’t the type of executive who (to this point, anyway) makes definitive public declarations about his players. But the Tigers already have a deep farm — Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark are both top-10 prospects in the entire sport — along with a blank-slate payroll outlook and clear World Series aspirations in the short term. A Skubal trade would be genuinely stunning — the first time in nearly 20 years that the best pitcher in MLB was traded prior to free agency, harkening back to the Twins (another payroll-strapped club) and their 2007 trade of Johan Santana. Other teams can go ahead and try, but it’d be a pretty bold claim for Detroit’s front office to trade far and away their best player and still claim to be in win-now mode.

[RatkoVarda]

10 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Dan Dickerson's thoughts on this matter

 

Dan Dickerson shares what Detroit Tigers should do with Tarik Skubal https://share.google/XoA7vGrsfz6qB1ftn

Dan gave a fan's answer; at the end of negotiations, the Tigers will blink, and the Dodgers will not; that's the ball game.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Dan gave a fan's answer; at the end of negotiations, the Tigers will blink, and the Dodgers will not; that's the ball game.

pretty much. He's probably right about keeping him this year being worth more than any trade option, but getting him resigned is a low probability outcome. It's not a matter of 'creativity', it's a matter of total dollars. Every accountant can figure the net present value of even a 'creative' offer.

[oblong]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

pretty much. He's probably right about keeping him this year being worth more than any trade option, but getting him resigned is a low probability outcome. It's not a matter of 'creativity', it's a matter of total dollars. Every accountant can figure the net present value of even a 'creative' offer.

wait, you mean to tell me all that chatter about "all they gotta do is....." is not that informative?  That Doug from Fowlerville isn't more informed than the team of attorneys and number crunchers that work for Scott Harris?

[papalawrence]

If the Tigers win the WS, I like their chances of extending him. If not, then not. So odds are, what, 15%

[RatkoVarda]

8 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

If the Tigers win the WS, I like their chances of extending him. If not, then not. So odds are, what, 15%

if they win the 2026 WS, it would be much, much easier for both sides to move on

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

If the Tigers win the WS, I like their chances of extending him. If not, then not. So odds are, what, 15%

I am not sure winning the World Series makes it more likely he stays, but their chance of winning the World Series is probably a lot lower than 15%. All things being equal, the chance of winning the World Series once you make the playoffs is 1 in 12 or 8% and you have to make the playoffs first.  

[Edman85]

26 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I am not sure winning the World Series makes it more likely he stays, but their chance of winning the World Series is probably a lot lower than 15%. All things being equal, the chance of winning the World Series once you make the playoffs is 1 in 12 or 8% and you have to make the playoffs first.  

I would say your odds are not 1 in 12 but rather 1 in 8 with a bye or 1 in 16 without.

[Tiger337]

51 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I would say your odds are not 1 in 12 but rather 1 in 8 with a bye or 1 in 16 without.

That is accurate, so then you have to calculate the probability of getting a bye.  

Suppose they have a 60% chance of making playoffs which seems about right looking at last years pre-season odds on fangraphs.  Suppose they have a 30% chance of a bye assuming they make the playoffs.  Then, they have a 12.5% of winning WS if they have a bye and and 6.25% chance without a bye. 

P(win)= P(playoffs)*(P(bye/playoffs)*P(win/bye) + P(no bye/playoffs)*P(win/no bye))

= .60 (.30*.125 + .70*.0625) = .04875 or just under 5% 

[IdahoBert]

3 hours ago, oblong said:

That Doug from Fowlerville isn't more informed than the team of attorneys and number crunchers that work for Scott Harris?

According to AI, nobody cares about this guy anyway so we can ignore the little pest…  

“Public opinion on an individual named "Doug" in Fowlerville, Michigan, is not clearly available in public search results. The person referred to simply as "Doug" is not a widely known public figure with extensive, easily searchable community-wide feedback or news coverage.”

. 

[TcFlint]

Scott Harris doesn’t have the kahuna’s to trade Skubal.  Meaning Skubal will leave the Tigers for $400 + Million and we will get a compensatory pick in 2027 meaning the pick will not make the Tigers roster until 2029 at the very earliest.  This is why I say trade him now and keep our trajectory going forward, get a top level pitching prospect in the trade, and hitting prospect, and sign a free agent starter and set us up for the he next several years.  However, not gonna happen.

Edited Tuesday at 12:25 AM by TcFlint