Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Tenacious D]

The best advice is to ignore any specifics when it comes to contract or trade speculation.  Too many journalists, professional or amateur, are desperate for relevance and livelihood, so reporting standards have completely slipped. And that goes for the guys at the Freep and Det News, too. Enjoy it for entertainment value, but don’t take as gospel.

[Arlington]

On 11/21/2025 at 1:32 PM, Tenacious D said:

The best advice is to ignore any specifics when it comes to contract or trade speculation.  Too many journalists, professional or amateur, are desperate for relevance and livelihood, so reporting standards have completely slipped. And that goes for the guys at the Freep and Det News, too. Enjoy it for entertainment value, but don’t take as gospel.

But Jim Bowden is an ex-GM /src>

[Sports_Freak]

On 11/21/2025 at 8:10 AM, chasfh said:

I do take Skubal at his word that he would prefer to stay here. I can envision his choosing Detroit in a tiebreaker over Los Angeles or New York. I don’t think he’ll give the Tigers any kind of substantial hometown discount, but I bet what he really wants to see from Detroit is a commitment in years. If we try to lowball him on years, probably anything less than eight, I think he leaves.

It would be a discount, kind of, to extend him this off-season. After he has another Cy-like season, he may be (would be) more expensive. Its the Tigers one advantage, only they can negotiate with him.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

It would be a discount, kind of, to extend him this off-season. After he has another Cy-like season, he may be (would be) more expensive. Its the Tigers one advantage, only they can negotiate with him.

I don‘t know whether it would be so much of a discount this season, since presumably Skubal would be paid much more this year under an extension this winter versus taking the arb award figure. A raise over his arb number this year would probably have to be the sweetener to get him to lock up before he’s an actual free agent, and if I’m not mistaken, that’s not exactly Scott Boras’s jam.

Edited Sunday at 01:28 PM by chasfh

[oblong]

It’s business. None of these people are stupid. They know every angle and risk and opportunity. Nothing said on the internet isn’t anything they’ve discussed as options.   If the team offered him a “fair market” contract that was enourmous would he take it?  Probably.  He could get hurt next year.
 I’m not offering up what that is, that’s not the point. 

would the tigers offer up a fair market contract that was enormous?  Probably not.  He might get hurt next year. 
 

don’t pay until you have to 

don’t sign a deal until you are truly a free agent. 
 

those two things are the clash.  And both sides are being smart relative to their interests. 

[Sports_Freak]

45 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don‘t know whether it would be so much of a discount this season, since presumably Skubal would be paid much more this year under an extension this winter versus taking the arb award figure. A raise over his arb number this year would probably have to be the sweetener to get him to lock up before he’s an actual free agent, and if I’m not mistaken, that’s not exactly Scott Boras’s jam.

Agreed. Scott Boras has a history of taking his players to free agency. It would be up to Skubal to tell him to get an extension done with Detroit. My hope is that Tarik will go for an 8 year contract, that's the max I expect the Tigers may go. But all negotiations with him are pure speculation by the fans/media. We just...don't know.

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, oblong said:

It’s business. None of these people are stupid. They know every angle and risk and opportunity. Nothing said on the internet isn’t anything they’ve discussed as options.   If the team offered him a “fair market” contract that was enourmous would he take it?  Probably.  He could get hurt next year.
 I’m not offering up what that is, that’s not the point. 

would the tigers offer up a fair market contract that was enormous?  Probably not.  He might get hurt next year. 
 

don’t pay until you have to 

don’t sign a deal until you are truly a free agent. 
 

those two things are the clash.  And both sides are being smart relative to their interests. 

Scott Harris has a decision to make. Extend Skubal this off season or keep him for 2026 and then let him walk. Or trade him this off-season. I say trading him at the '26 trade deadline would have the fans and media screaming bloody murder, if the Tigers are contending. Also, a short rental would get much less in return. And it may cost much less extending him now, if he has another outstanding season, his price tag would go way up. I really hope the Tigers and Skubal work something out, he should be a Tiger for life.

[Dan Gilmore]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Scott Harris has a decision to make. Extend Skubal this off season or keep him for 2026 and then let him walk. Or trade him this off-season. I say trading him at the '26 trade deadline would have the fans and media screaming bloody murder, if the Tigers are contending. Also, a short rental would get much less in return. And it may cost much less extending him now, if he has another outstanding season, his price tag would go way up. I really hope the Tigers and Skubal work something out, he should be a Tiger for life.

I wouldn’t describe an extension to Skubal as a Harris decision, it clearly is a Skubal decision. Harris can only decide to offer same, not make it happen.

[oblong]

The variable I don’t see mentioned very often is - what if Skubal just starts to decline in a performance sense?  Not drop off but just simply not cy young caliber?  Then you dodge another line of bullet. 

[casimir]

7 hours ago, oblong said:

The variable I don’t see mentioned very often is - what if Skubal just starts to decline in a performance sense?  Not drop off but just simply not cy young caliber?  Then you dodge another line of bullet. 

Do you mean in 2026?  I think we all assume there’s going to be decline in the long term deal.  But, yeah, you’re right.  Everyone assumes Cy Young type performance in this upcoming season, nobody thinks otherwise.  So, to that point, how bad of a 2026 would it have to be in order to shift expectations on that long term deal?

[AlaskanTigersFan]

47 minutes ago, casimir said:

Do you mean in 2026?  I think we all assume there’s going to be decline in the long term deal.  But, yeah, you’re right.  Everyone assumes Cy Young type performance in this upcoming season, nobody thinks otherwise.  So, to that point, how bad of a 2026 would it have to be in order to shift expectations on that long term deal?

4.00+ ERA with a 1.20 WHIP +

[oblong]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

Do you mean in 2026?  I think we all assume there’s going to be decline in the long term deal.  But, yeah, you’re right.  Everyone assumes Cy Young type performance in this upcoming season, nobody thinks otherwise.  So, to that point, how bad of a 2026 would it have to be in order to shift expectations on that long term deal?

Yes 2026.  What if he’s not top 5 Cy Young?  

[casimir]

8 hours ago, oblong said:

Yes 2026.  What if he’s not top 5 Cy Young?  

Valid point.

[ToledoBrian]

8 hours ago, oblong said:

Yes 2026.  What if he’s not top 5 Cy Young?  

2026 Cy Young 6-10 finish, little if any concern, big fall off equals genuine concern, some type of arm injury, serious concern. We all agree any big contract contains levels of risk, the longer the contract the increases in risk & probability of down years. I still think you offer 8 years at 335-350 million and see where it lands with Skubal....  Of course it's easy for me to propose that, not my $.  I'm sure the team has Accountants & Actuaries to graph out all the risks & benefits...  

[gehringer_2]

11 pitchers in history have 3 or more Cy Youngs. The odds of Skubal not regressing are not good, but not impossible.

[Sports_Freak]

5 hours ago, ToledoBrian said:

2026 Cy Young 6-10 finish, little if any concern, big fall off equals genuine concern, some type of arm injury, serious concern. We all agree any big contract contains levels of risk, the longer the contract the increases in risk & probability of down years. I still think you offer 8 years at 335-350 million and see where it lands with Skubal....  Of course it's easy for me to propose that, not my $.  I'm sure the team has Accountants & Actuaries to graph out all the risks & benefits...  

I wonder if they take fans disgust into consideration? I'm sure season ticket sales would drop way off...

[Tiger337]

Not finishing in top 5 for Cy Young would probably not concern me much.  If he is in 6-10 range as Brian suggested, it would still be a very good season.  It would depend on the reason for the drop off though.  If there is a velocity drop or anything like that, it would be concerning.  If it's just a higher ERA, then it shouldn't affect any decisons about trying to sign him long-term.  

[buddha]

the big concerns for skubal are regression and the upcoming cba.  it could alter the terms to make long term big contracts much harder to get.  its possible boras knows what is being discussed on the cba front and he actually decides it would be better to let skubal sign now than risk free agency in a new cba world.

interesting times, indeed.

[IdahoBert]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

the big concerns for skubal are regression and the upcoming cba.  it could alter the terms to make long term big contracts much harder to get.  its possible boras knows what is being discussed on the cba front and he actually decides it would be better to let skubal sign now than risk free agency in a new cba world.

interesting times, indeed.

That makes sense. Assuming a long-term work stoppage or more properly a lockout in 2027, this ends up making Skubal one year older, less sharp, and a year removed from being baseball’s “top model” while also operating under a new set of rules less advantageous for players. 

[buddha]

9 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

That makes sense. And assuming a long-term work stoppage or more properly a lockout in 2027, this ends up making Skubal one year older, less sharp, and a year removed from being baseball’s “top model” while also operating under a new set of rules less advantageous for players. 

thinking about the nfl.  remember when the top pick in the draft immediately became the highest paid player in the league?  then the league changed the rules.

it could happen in baseball too.  i dont think it will, but it might.  or something akin to that to make it harder to get a 10 year 500 million deal.  maybe a cap in years?  not sure. 

[papalawrence]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

11 pitchers in history have 3 or more Cy Youngs. The odds of Skubal not regressing are not good, but not impossible.

I have it on good authority that Harris follows the advice on this forum. I will blame you when Skubal leaves for a comp draft pick that turns out to be Christian Stewart's lesser athletic cousin

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

I have it on good authority that Harris follows the advice on this forum. I will blame you when Skubal leaves for a comp draft pick that turns out to be Christian Stewart's lesser athletic cousin

He once saw Gehringer at a game and he recognized him from his avatar and kept looking at him.  

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Not finishing in top 5 for Cy Young would probably not concern me much.  If he is in 6-10 range as Brian suggested, it would still be a very good season.  It would depend on the reason for the drop off though.  If there is a velocity drop or anything like that, it would be concerning.  If it's just a higher ERA, then it shouldn't affect any decisons about trying to sign him long-term.  

I think because of his recent two Cy Youngs, there’s a recency bias for writers to cast votes for Skubal, so I would think a season that garners him a, say, sixth-place finish for the Cy Young would garner the average non-award-winning pitcher a tenth-place finish in award voting. IOW, if he were to drop to sixth, I would think his season would be worse than the typical sixth-place CYA finisher.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, buddha said:

the big concerns for skubal are regression and the upcoming cba.  it could alter the terms to make long term big contracts much harder to get.  its possible boras knows what is being discussed on the cba front and he actually decides it would be better to let skubal sign now than risk free agency in a new cba world.

interesting times, indeed.

If Boras goes off-script and agrees to the Tigers signing Skubal to a long-term deal, I would take that to mean that he’s hearing scuttlebutt inside leading him to believe owners will win the new contract negotiations pretty handily.

[Tenacious D]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think because of his recent two Cy Youngs, there’s a recency bias for writers to cast votes for Skubal, so I would think a season that garners him a, say, sixth-place finish for the Cy Young would garner the average non-award-winning pitcher a tenth-place finish in award voting. IOW, if he were to drop to sixth, I would think his season would be worse than the typical sixth-place CYA finisher.

Chas-logic.