Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Stormin]

7 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Exactly why the Tigers should trade him now for a kings ransom. Or if he blows out his arm in April.... FML. We are the Angels 2.0.....

The Miggy contract was painful because of his decline and the negative impact on the team. Skubal is in his prime.  There is not a Skubal trade that will make the Tigers better in 2026. The Tigers are in a position to win now.  The Angels with Ohtani were in the midst of a long string of losing seasons. Huge return for one year of Skubal is a theory not based on precedent.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

There were a lot of reports that the Tigers lowballed him with a non competitive offer.

They really never had any intention of trying to sign him because they weren't going to offer anywhere close to what he would get as a FA and knew he wouldn't sign.

Plus, comments that Skubal has made sure sounds like he doesn't have any faith in the front office and ownership.

Well, maybe not Skubal but many free agents, who were offered contract extensions, take a gamble that theyll stay injury free and that they will put up good numbers, increasing their worth. I'm surprised the Tigers didn’t at least try or offer Skubal a contract. Not that Boras would advise him to sign it but to let him know the risks of possibly losing millions of dollars.

[Sports_Freak]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Right, even if Buddha is happy with the amount of imbalance now, if teams start losing guys at 3 yrs, the Tigers wouldn't have made the playoff either of the last two years.

But other teams would also lose guys to free agency after the same 3 years. So yes, we could have lost several players but a huge pool of replacements would be available. At a huge cost, much more expensive, but out there to sign.

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Exactly why the Tigers should trade him now for a kings ransom. Or if he blows out his arm in April.... FML. We are the Angels 2.0.....

We are not going to get a king's ransom for a single year of Skubal along with $32 million, unless we pick up some of the salary, at which point what the hell are we even doing?

How about an earl's ransom? Would you take an earl's ransom for Skubal? It might not be a king's ransom, but upside, you get Skubal the hell out of town.

[buddha]

49 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

But other teams would also lose guys to free agency after the same 3 years. So yes, we could have lost several players but a huge pool of replacements would be available. At a huge cost, much more expensive, but out there to sign.

if there is a huge pool of players every year, the price per player will be lower.

the superstars will get paid and most other people wont.

[tiger2022]

More like Alcantara, King, and Lugo?

[lordstanley]

10 hours ago, Stormin said:

I am curious how many fans who followed the Tigers from 2017 to 2023,  and watched Miggy become a below average player on an unmovable contract, would actually want the Tigers to sign Skubal to a 10 year deal.

A lot of media folks are still tossing around the 10 year $400M number.  I would think a 10 year contract for a 30 year old pitcher would be a stretch for almost any team and a definite no for the Tigers.

I feel much better about the likely departure of Skubal after next season now that Illitch has shown he will spend good money on Valdez. There will be other Valdezes out there after next season and the year after and hitters too that make more baseball sense to sign than Skubal for 10 years. The depressing thing about Skubal leaving would have been if it meant that the Tigers were super cheap, had no intention of trying to fill the gap created except from within, and that Illitch was going to run this like a small market team. If he runs a mid-market payroll, fine with me. Offer Skubal 5x$50mm and if he says no then so be it.

Edited 12 hours ago by lordstanley

[RatkoVarda]

I do not want the Tigers to sign Skubal to a 10/400 deal. It is likely the last few years could be ugly, perhaps very ugly, and the Tigers cannot risk having 40M+ in dead money on their books. That is a risk the bigger markets can take. 5 x 50 does not get it done, but I would try, and then watch him walk.

[Stormin]

A good percentage of the media "experts" saying the Tigers should trade Skubal view Detroit as losers.  If Skubal were on the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, ...   would these experts be pushing for a Skubal trade? 

[tiger2022]

Nobody outside of Detroit cares about Detroit.  

It's not any different than me not caring about Colorado or Baltimore.

For the record, I don't care about Bosto , New York etc

[Jason_R]

4 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Well, maybe not Skubal but many free agents, who were offered contract extensions, take a gamble that theyll stay injury free and that they will put up good numbers, increasing their worth. I'm surprised the Tigers didn’t at least try or offer Skubal a contract. Not that Boras would advise him to sign it but to let him know the risks of possibly losing millions of dollars.

Who says the Tigers didn’t offer him a contract? Based on everything I have read, they did and he declined it. 

Also, based on the salary committed to Valdez, it would be very hard to believe that the Tigers offered anything less to Skubal, and they almost certainly offered him something more. But Boras seems to have pegged Skubal’s value around 10/$400 million, which is a long way from the neighborhood that Detroit was probably playing in. If 10/$400 million is the price, I don’t want Detroit to pay it, especially having witnessed the last few years of Cabrera’s contract. 

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, lordstanley said:

I feel much better about the likely departure of Skubal after next season now that Illitch has shown he will spend good money on Valdez. There will be other Valdezes out there after next season and the year after and hitters too that make more baseball sense to sign than Skubal for 10 years. The depressing thing about Skubal leaving would have been if it meant that the Tigers were super cheap, had no intention of trying to fill the gap created except from within, and that Illitch was going to run this like a small market team. If he runs a mid-market payroll, fine with me. Offer Skubal 5x$50mm and if he says no then so be it.

I’m not a fan of making offers you know the player is going to turn down. I think it’s a bad look.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Stormin said:

A good percentage of the media "experts" saying the Tigers should trade Skubal view Detroit as losers.  If Skubal were on the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, ...   would these experts be pushing for a Skubal trade? 

I kind of don’t blame them, given that the Tigers have not only not yet established themselves as consistent winners, but had also had a thin record post-Dombrowski when it came to signing and retaining top talent. Heck even now, a healthy percentage, if not the majority, of posters here want to trade Skubal today, just so we don’t risk him shoving our faces in the snow on the way out.

We could be at the turning point now. Wouldn’t that be loverly!

[Tenacious D]

Here is the list of teams who appeared in the postseason in both ‘24 and ‘25:

• New York Yankees
• Cleveland Guardians
• Detroit Tigers
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Milwaukee Brewers
• San Diego Padres

 

[gehringer_2]

6 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

At a huge cost, much more expensive, but out there to sign.

if the cost goes to huge, then how do they remain available to most teams in practice? Sounds like heading back to the reserve clause days with the Yankees stashing whole major league teams worth of players in the minors to keep them away from other teams except now it will be the Dodgers.

Edited 6 hours ago by gehringer_2

[TigerNation]

15 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Exactly why the Tigers should trade him now for a kings ransom. Or if he blows out his arm in April.... FML. We are the Angels 2.0.....

I would be willing to trade Skubal for a kings ransom. Unfortunately, that is not an option. Look at the Burnes trade for the Brewers, the best player they got was Joey Ortiz, who was the 45h ranked prospect on fangraphs, and he is projected as a 2 WAR player entering his age 27 season. He's a solid player, but he is not an impact player, and not a player that meaningfully changes the outlook of your franchise over a 3-5 year period. If you have a good scouting and development organization, and don't have an incredibly cheap and deadbeat ownership, you will have no problem consistently acquiring/developing solid 2 WAR guys, missing out on a guy like that will never be what holds your team back. 

I checked the fangraphs top 20 prospects from 2014-2019. In that period 87 different players appeared on the lists. Of those, only 20 players had 3 or more 3+ WAR seasons during the 6 years of control. So less than 25% of top 20 prospects actually turned into consistent impact players. And the fact is you would be lucky to get a single top 20 prospect for Skubal, in all likelihood the best you'd get is two top 100 prospects, one of them probably around 50th and the second more of a back half guy. And guess what? Both of those guys are unlikely to turn out to be even average big league starters. 

The reality is that the Tigers would not receive a package for Skubal that will have any meaningful impact on the teams outlook for the next 6 seasons. If the Tigers trade Skubal and get one player who gives them 12 WAR over their 6 years of control, that would be an objectively successful return. Sorry, but that level of player is not hard to come by, and that is not an exciting return. I'd rather give it one more shot with Skubal, the franchises outlook over the next 6 years after this one will not change whether they trade Skubal or not.

[Stormin]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I kind of don’t blame them, given that the Tigers have not only not yet established themselves as consistent winners, but had also had a thin record post-Dombrowski when it came to signing and retaining top talent. Heck even now, a healthy percentage, if not the majority, of posters here want to trade Skubal today, just so we don’t risk him shoving our faces in the snow on the way out.

We could be at the turning point now. Wouldn’t that be loverly!

Everyone is entitled to their own viewpoint, but for me, as a long time Tiger fan, there are two "things" that would make it difficult to trade Skubal under almost any circumstance.

1. The Tigers are at least in the conversion as a World Series contender.   Without Skubal, I think the Tigers are out of the conversation.   How many seasons have I endured knowing the Tigers had no chance of making it to the World Series before game 1.
2. I have been spoiled as a fan the last 20 years with JV, Miggy, Scherzer, and now Skubal.   Before that, there was a 40 year gap between prime Kaline and JV.  It may be another 40 years before the next first ballot HOF caliber talent wears a Tiger uniform.  I can't imagine the pain of watching Skubal win his third straight Cy Young in front of Yankee fans and helping the Yankees to the World Series.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, TigerNation said:

I would be willing to trade Skubal for a kings ransom. Unfortunately, that is not an option. Look at the Burnes trade for the Brewers, the best player they got was Joey Ortiz, who was the 45h ranked prospect on fangraphs, and he is projected as a 2 WAR player entering his age 27 season. He's a solid player, but he is not an impact player, and not a player that meaningfully changes the outlook of your franchise over a 3-5 year period. If you have a good scouting and development organization, and don't have an incredibly cheap and deadbeat ownership, you will have no problem consistently acquiring/developing solid 2 WAR guys, missing out on a guy like that will never be what holds your team back. 

I checked the fangraphs top 20 prospects from 2014-2019. In that period 87 different players appeared on the lists. Of those, only 20 players had 3 or more 3+ WAR seasons during the 6 years of control. So less than 25% of top 20 prospects actually turned into consistent impact players. And the fact is you would be lucky to get a single top 20 prospect for Skubal, in all likelihood the best you'd get is two top 100 prospects, one of them probably around 50th and the second more of a back half guy. And guess what? Both of those guys are unlikely to turn out to be even average big league starters. 

The reality is that the Tigers would not receive a package for Skubal that will have any meaningful impact on the teams outlook for the next 6 seasons. If the Tigers trade Skubal and get one player who gives them 12 WAR over their 6 years of control, that would be an objectively successful return. Sorry, but that level of player is not hard to come by, and that is not an exciting return. I'd rather give it one more shot with Skubal, the franchises outlook over the next 6 years after this one will not change whether they trade Skubal or not.

I am out of reactions, but Thanks.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Stormin said:

Everyone is entitled to their own viewpoint, but for me, as a long time Tiger fan, there are two "things" that would make it difficult to trade Skubal under almost any circumstance.

1. The Tigers are at least in the conversion as a World Series contender.   Without Skubal, I think the Tigers are out of the conversation.   How many seasons have I endured knowing the Tigers had no chance of making it to the World Series before game 1.
2. I have been spoiled as a fan the last 20 years with JV, Miggy, Scherzer, and now Skubal.   Before that, there was a 40 year gap between prime Kaline and JV.  It may be another 40 years before the next first ballot HOF caliber talent wears a Tiger uniform.  I can't imagine the pain of watching Skubal win his third straight Cy Young in front of Yankee fans and helping the Yankees to the World Series.

This, too.

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Who says the Tigers didn’t offer him a contract? Based on everything I have read, they did and he declined it. 

Also, based on the salary committed to Valdez, it would be very hard to believe that the Tigers offered anything less to Skubal, and they almost certainly offered him something more. But Boras seems to have pegged Skubal’s value around 10/$400 million, which is a long way from the neighborhood that Detroit was probably playing in. If 10/$400 million is the price, I don’t want Detroit to pay it, especially having witnessed the last few years of Cabrera’s contract. 

Well, I've also heard speculation that the Tigers offered him a contract but I really don't know the details. My point is the same, any player going into free agency is gambling on his health and production. Its a multi-million dollar gamble. And pitchers are so....delicate.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I kind of don’t blame them, given that the Tigers have not only not yet established themselves as consistent winners, but had also had a thin record post-Dombrowski when it came to signing and retaining top talent. Heck even now, a healthy percentage, if not the majority, of posters here want to trade Skubal today, just so we don’t risk him shoving our faces in the snow on the way out.

We could be at the turning point now. Wouldn’t that be loverly!

In baseball these days, 2 playoff seasons in a row is pretty consistent. Maybe not compared to the Dodgers but still somewhat consistent.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

if the cost goes to huge, then how do they remain available to most teams in practice? Sounds like heading back to the reserve clause days with the Yankees stashing whole major league teams worth of players in the minors to keep them away from other teams except now it will be the Dodgers.

With 3 year free agents, teams wouldn't be able to afford doing that. Who would pay Riley $20 million per year for 5 or 6 years and then sign several other players for even more? The owners costs would go way, way up to field a competitive team. Think a $600 million payroll. There would be multiple players for every position available. And the league would get even younger, as most teams would let free agents walk. The quality of the game would suffer.

Yeah, hitting free agency after 3 years isn't going to happen.

[buddha]

If skubal leaves i'll still root for him unless he goes to Boston or the White Sox, twins or indians.  Then he can rot in hell.

bu assuming he's a good person and wouldnt sully himself with the filth of those franchises and their repulsive fans, i'll pull for him.

kind of like stafford.  i'm glad he won an mvp and a super bowl if the lions couldnt win.  i'll root for skubal to do well and will always consider him a tiger.

but i do expect him to leave after this year, and i'm happy the tigers finally did something to bring him some extra help.  now let's hope the tigers are in position to add a difference maker at the deadline this year and actually do it.

[Tenacious D]

The idea that this team would implode without Skubal is ridiculous.  He’ll pitch in 20% of our games, if lucky and log 2/3 innings in of each of those.

He is amazing, but we have won without him and will again.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

The idea that this team would implode without Skubal is ridiculous.  He’ll pitch in 20% of our games, if lucky and log 2/3 innings in of each of those.

He is amazing, but we have won without him and will again.

Yep.

Thank you for that.