Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[4hzglory]

22 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Meaning when he is a free agent for 2029? He is in general a minus defender and a platoon piece at the plate, and he will be going into his age 31 season, so I wouldn’t think much. He might even be on year-to-year by then.

Meaning if he were magically a free agent now going into his age 28 season? I think I’d be surprised to see him get more than 3/60 plus team options, which I would think a 19th round guy would thank his god over and over for.

I think he means in a trade.

[oblong]

37 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I do think we won’t see Ilitch/Harris break the bank for a position player like Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker (who’s costing himself a bunch of money right now). I think they believe they will be positioned well to perennially contend with the position pieces they have been meticulously moving into place the last three years. They might plug a hole in here or there, but no 10 year $400 million position players deals are going to come out of our front office.

I do think we might take a swing at a front line starter, although Framber also seems to be costing himself some money right now, so that might actually work out for us somewhat. I think Dylan Cease could be a solid target. He is also having a rough RA9 year, although his xERA is more than a full run better than his actual ERA is. I think either of these guys would be a better target than trading for a controllable cheapie like Gore, since all a free agent would cost us is money rather than prospect capital. We could reserve the latter for another deadline trade situation next year.

Generally agree except I'll add if Skubal was having the kind of impact years as a position player they'd be more willing to make him a franchise guy.  But since he's a P they won't take the risk.  If they somehow knew he'd stay healthy for 8 more years, they'd do it.  

Would this regime have extended Cabrera the 2nd time?  No.  They would have done what the Cardinals did with Pujols.

[papalawrence]

Without knowing the metrics, and just by the eye test, I think Carp has made positive strides in the OF and is approaching average OF on D. I'm glad Det has team control for 3+ years. I'm much less confident on Meadows' longer-term.

[chasfh]

49 minutes ago, oblong said:

Generally agree except I'll add if Skubal was having the kind of impact years as a position player they'd be more willing to make him a franchise guy.  But since he's a P they won't take the risk.  If they somehow knew he'd stay healthy for 8 more years, they'd do it.  

Would this regime have extended Cabrera the 2nd time?  No.  They would have done what the Cardinals did with Pujols.

I don't hate Cabrera—I love what he did for us for close to a decade—but I'm glad he is not around casting his 800-lb gorilla shadow over this organization. It will be cool to see him show up on the field for this honor or that commemoration once a year or so, but otherwise, as far as I'm concerned, he is firmly in the rear-view mirror.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I do think we won’t see Ilitch/Harris break the bank for a position player like Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker (who’s costing himself a bunch of money right now). I think they believe they will be positioned well to perennially contend with the position pieces they have been meticulously moving into place the last three years. They might plug a hole in here or there, but no 10 year $400 million position players deals are going to come out of our front office.

I do think we might take a swing at a front line starter, although Framber also seems to be costing himself some money right now, so that might actually work out for us somewhat. I think Dylan Cease could be a solid target. He is also having a rough RA9 year, although his xERA is more than a full run better than his actual ERA is. I think either of these guys would be a better target than trading for a controllable cheapie like Gore, since all a free agent would cost us is money rather than prospect capital. We could reserve the latter for another deadline trade situation next year.

Valdez goes through periods like this every year, so I don't think he's costing himself money.  He is inconsistent within a season, but very consistent from year to year.  He's been very healthy too, so he might not be as much of an injury risk as other pitchers.  I don't expect them to get anyone at his level, but if they do decide to spend big, I could see him being their target. 

I don't ecpect them to spend a lot on a position player.  Unlike you, I think they had legitimate interest and a real shot at getting Bregman last year.  I believe he might have signed with the Tigers if the Red Sox hadn't made their unusual offer.  He's a year older and coming off an injury riddled year, so he will  have less appeal to the Tigers and everyone else if he's making similar demands.  I don't even think about Tucker.  

I am hoping they make a run at a good starting pitcher, but I think it will be another year where they hunt for bargains.  Who will be their Gleybor Torres this year?

 

 

 

[chasfh]

This owner has already spent big when his GM has told him we are a contender, so if this GM/PBO tells him we need to spend for a solid starting pitcher, I think Baby Doc will do it.

I think Jace Jung is the heir apparent for second base next year. Sure, he's not crushing it, but then he's still only 24 which is young for the International League. One thing I do believe is that we won't be signing Torres to years.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

I think he means in a trade.

I don't think we get much for him in trade, either, unless he is part of a package.

Absent unforeseen moves, I don't see us trading cheap and controllable Carpenter.

[CaliforniaDreaming]

I would agree. Torres has been a wonderful addition this year, but we won't be signing him to another contract. It would be wise to let him walk and get paid by another team. Hopefully his successful season here in Detroit will encourage others to consider coming here on one year contracts to try to rebuild their value.

[IdahoBert]

I think the Tigers are already in Skubal‘s rearview mirror. He is a business more than he is a person. Yes the Tigers could sign him to the kind of contract he wants, but I don’t think they’ll do it. He knows this and his agent knows it. I just hope the Tigers get more than a draft pick out of this. 

[4hzglory]

1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

I think the Tigers are already in Skubal‘s rearview mirror. He is a business more than he is a person. Yes the Tigers could sign him to the kind of contract he wants, but I don’t think they’ll do it. He knows this and his agent knows it. I just hope the Tigers get more than a draft pick out of this. 

How about competing in 2 World Series and a draft pick 

[papalawrence]

It's a risk for him to wait. There is still 1.25 seasons to go. He may start to show some drop-off next season. And there is the potential cba work stoppage.

Kyle Tucker chose a similar path. And this year his stats are down. Reportedly he is playing hurt. But a low .800 ops and 139 ops+ isn't getting him 500 million, and that's what media was saying earlier this season. I'm not even confident he gets 400 million. He's had injuries, and his speed will be slowing.

[Tiger337]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

This owner has already spent big when his GM has told him we are a contender, so if this GM/PBO tells him we need to spend for a solid starting pitcher, I think Baby Doc will do it.

I think Jace Jung is the heir apparent for second base next year. Sure, he's not crushing it, but then he's still only 24 which is young for the International League. One thing I do believe is that we won't be signing Torres to years.

I never said anything about the owner.  What's the longest contract Scott Harris has ever given as a GM of any team?  Valdez is going to be 32 and will probably get 5/180.  Would Harris do that? 

Edited Thursday at 09:41 PM by Tiger337

[chasfh]

He might. I think Harris might sign a big free agent this winter if he determines a deal that’s right for what we need. But even if he doesn’t, so what? Is that such a failure on his part?

I don’t understand why the key benchmark of success for Harris has to be whether he signs big stars to big years and big money, and if he doesn’t, it must be because he’s cheap or he’s scared or he’s lazy, all of which have been suggested by various people (I don’t mean you) at various times about him for not signing or trading for expensive contracts.

I understand other teams have been aggressive signing big stars for big money and lots of years and we haven’t. The Yankees have Judge and Cole and Fried and Rodon and Bellinger and Stanton. The Mets have Soto and Lindor and Alonso and Manaea and Nimmo. The Dodgers have Ohtani and Snell and Betts and Freeman and Glasnow. The Phillies have Wheeler and Schwarber and Harper and Nola. The Giants have Devers and Adames and Chapman and Ray and Lee and Webb. The Padres have Machado and Bogaerts and Tatis and Musgrove and Darvish. They all have big stars making big money for lots more years and the Tigers don’t.

What none of these other teams have that the Tigers do is 76 wins and the best record in their league. So maybe winning in today’s game is not necessarily about who has more of the biggest stars making the most money into the 2030s. Maybe winning today’s game is about something else. And as fans of the Detroit Tigers, we’re about to find out one way or the other.

Not for nothing, Milwaukee has even fewer high-priced stats and a lower payroll than us, and they’re doing even better than us and everyone else. And they’ve been winning that way for years. Maybe that’s the organization Harris is emulating and not any of the big-spending coastal teams, one of which he left to come here.

So maybe Ilitch, Harris, and the Tigers will sign Skubal for many many years and nine figures. Maybe they won’t. I’m in for the ride either way.

[Tenacious D]

I think Carpenter might have more trade appeal than we’re giving him credit for.  Cost-controlled power bats are valuable.  If you could flip in a package for a nice pitcher, we could find his replacement via free agency or promotion (convert one of our glut of middle infielders).  Might only be for a season until Max Clark is ready in ‘27

[chasfh]

I wouldn't object to trading Carpenter to get back more wins today than we would trade away wins today.

[Shinzaki]

I might be inclined to give the Skubal money to Hunter Brown if the opportunity arose

[IdahoBert]

On 8/22/2025 at 7:23 AM, chasfh said:

He might. I think Harris might sign a big free agent this winter if he determines a deal that’s right for what we need. But even if he doesn’t, so what? Is that such a failure on his part?

I don’t understand why the key benchmark of success for Harris has to be whether he signs big stars to big years and big money, and if he doesn’t, it must be because he’s cheap or he’s scared or he’s lazy, all of which have been suggested by various people (I don’t mean you) at various times about him for not signing or trading for expensive contracts.

I understand other teams have been aggressive signing big stars for big money and lots of years and we haven’t. The Yankees have Judge and Cole and Fried and Rodon and Bellinger and Stanton. The Mets have Soto and Lindor and Alonso and Manaea and Nimmo. The Dodgers have Ohtani and Snell and Betts and Freeman and Glasnow. The Phillies have Wheeler and Schwarber and Harper and Nola. The Giants have Devers and Adames and Chapman and Ray and Lee and Webb. The Padres have Machado and Bogaerts and Tatis and Musgrove and Darvish. They all have big stars making big money for lots more years and the Tigers don’t.

What none of these other teams have that the Tigers do is 76 wins and the best record in their league. So maybe winning in today’s game is not necessarily about who has more of the biggest stars making the most money into the 2030s. Maybe winning today’s game is about something else. And as fans of the Detroit Tigers, we’re about to find out one way or the other.

Not for nothing, Milwaukee has even fewer high-priced stats and a lower payroll than us, and they’re doing even better than us and everyone else. And they’ve been winning that way for years. Maybe that’s the organization Harris is emulating and not any of the big-spending coastal teams, one of which he left to come here.

So maybe Ilitch, Harris, and the Tigers will sign Skubal for many many years and nine figures. Maybe they won’t. I’m in for the ride either way.

Well said. Other teams are blandly uncreative in their approach to acquiring players. They just buy more big guns. But strategy and tactics are as important as fire power. Yes, the Tigers have some big guns, but that’s not all they rely upon.

Harris is also engaged in asymmetric guerrilla war. He’s not just responding to force with more force, but with finesse.

The Tigers are a bit like the early American revolutionaries who didn’t meet the British Army head on which just marched in lines, and they instead use mobile hit-and-run tactics to wear down the enemy.

Harris and Hinch are finding chinks in the armor of other teams and aiming their guns there so to speak while developing their own big guns in the sticks.

We’re witnessing something special perhaps even historic with this club.