Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[KL2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I'd rather have Skubal, but the playoffs are still largely a crapshoot.  Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of his era, didno do much in the playoffs.  Skubal lost the deciding game last year.  You do want to have whatever playoff advantage you can get though (and elite starting pitching is probably the best way to do that).  I like the four year $160 million idea.  I hope those kinds of contracts become more popular.  It's not the money that makes long-term contracts terrible.  It's the years.  

They wont for elite players. Cause you are putting yourself at a real risk. 10 years 300 million is 300 million no matter what. If he takes four, gets hurt he will never come close to that 300 in total.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, KL2 said:

They wont for elite players. Cause you are putting yourself at a real risk. 10 years 300 million is 300 million no matter what. If he takes four, gets hurt he will never come close to that 300 in total.

The players won't like it, but if it becomes common practice for teams to avoid those long-term deals, they will have to accept shorter term deals.  

[papalawrence]

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

You're using the wrong metric.

 

The metric is not the Regular Season, in which you are pretty much correct. Not worth an insane cost for one pitcher.

The correct metric is the Playoffs and the World Series.

In the playoffs... and hopefully a few World Series...

do you want above average Mize plus above average Jobe plus average Joe Blow starting 3 games? That tells me "lose in the first round".

Or do you want Mize/ Jobe and Insane Ace Skubal in those 3 games? I'm talking about 2027-2030...

I'll pay the money to have Aces in the Playoffs instead of just Jacks.

I'm with Chas: 4 years, $160 Mill+. 

It's not the AAV, it's the excess years that get ya'.

 

If Max and JV got 2-3 years at 43 mil per approaching age 40, I would think Skubal would be looking at 5/225-250. I think that's the minimum he might consider, should he continue his elite level through to free agency. But again, I also believe someone will offer him 9/400

[gehringer_2]

10 hours ago, chasfh said:

As for signing Skubal long-term, I would rather sign him for four years and 188 million than seven years and 188 million. I’m more worried about carrying a gimpy, limpy mid- to late-30s ex-fireballer during his dotage than I am about paying an out-of-range AAV. I’ve long been more scared of the years than the money. Just look back in our own recent history and you can understand why.

QFT

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

This makes sense as things stands. The main mitigating factor is whether Baseball will undertake any rules changes in an attempt to reestablish the primacy of starting pitchers. They are on record as hoping to do so.

but do they have any clue how to do it? About the only things that would have any positive effect on pitchers are a deader ball and larger Zone. They won't do the 1st because their addicted to the long ball, and they can't do the second without sending K's even higher. You can change the rules for force pitchers to go deeper, that's only going to injure more pitchers.

If I wanted to try something more out of the box, I'd set 34 or 35oz minimum weight on a bat and move the mound back a foot or foot and a half in one of the lower leagues and see what happens.

[1984Echoes]

Or raise the mound two inches.

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Or raise the mound two inches.

I wonder if the bio-mechanical analysis available today could/would show if throwing a little more downhill affects the physiological stress significantly - certainly something someone could take a deep dive into. Pitchers obviously threw a lot more when the mound was 15", but so many things have changed since then you can't tell anything from that history, someone really should look at mound height again in the context of the current game.

[chasfh]

wt

Edited 6 hours ago by chasfh