Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Tiger337]

7 hours ago, buddha said:

otoh, he got played by eduardo rodriguez. 

uh oh, you are going to be lectured!

 

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

uh oh, you are going to be lectured!

 

Class is dismissed on that one. The final exam answer was that it's wrong.

[oblong]

18 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

You can say that about 25, but 24 was a fluke that will never be repeated again.  Harris gave up on the season that year.  Any credit for that season goes to Hinch and Fetter, but even that was largely luck.  

How do you know Harris didn’t have any input?  They literally said, at the time-not after the fact,  they got together to plan out the rest of the years pitching plan  due to the shortages.  Sure it was some luck but it happened and they won the games. 
 

I don’t have the secret decoder that tells me which wins and losses a POBO is responsible for and which are not.  All I know is since he’s taken over things have been a lot of fun at Comerica Park.   Some people don’t like his hair or something like that. 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, oblong said:

How do you know Harris didn’t have any input?  They literally said, at the time-not after the fact,  they got together to plan out the rest of the years pitching plan  due to the shortages.  Sure it was some luck but it happened and they won the games. 
 

I don’t have the secret decoder that tells me which wins and losses a POBO is responsible for and which are not.  All I know is since he’s taken over things have been a lot of fun at Comerica Park.   Some people don’t like his hair or something like that. 

Once the players are on the roster how much input does a GM have on what happens on the field? It would be managing the rotation of guys up and down from Toledo. That's a task that certainly affects outcome and where a manager and GM are cooperating. Now we don't really know how the org handles that. I'm sure there are orgs where the manager simply calls the GM and tells him who he wants when, and there are probably some where the GM provides a lot more input into the decisions. So Maybe Harris gets a lot of credit here, maybe 95% belonged to Hinch.

[Tenacious D]

30 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

You can say that about 25, but 24 was a fluke that will never be repeated again.  Harris gave up on the season that year.  Any credit for that season goes to Hinch and Fetter, but even that was largely luck.  

This.  Everyone thought we were bailing on the season.  A.J. Hinch, Parker Meadows and our bullpen had other ideas

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, oblong said:

How do you know Harris didn’t have any input?  They literally said, at the time-not after the fact,  they got together to plan out the rest of the years pitching plan  due to the shortages.  Sure it was some luck but it happened and they won the games. 
 

I don’t have the secret decoder that tells me which wins and losses a POBO is responsible for and which are not.  All I know is since he’s taken over things have been a lot of fun at Comerica Park.   Some people don’t like his hair or something like that. 

He may have had input in their desperation run, but the fact is he traded key pieces at the trade deadline.  You can maybe give him credit for giving Hinch the OK to execute pitching chaos, but he put the team in a position where it was almost impossible to win.  I simply don't believe the plan was to trade two of their best pitchers at the deadline and then win with pitching chaos.  That was an experiment to help them get through the season and a miracle happened.  They kind of tried it again in the second half of 25 and it didn't work.  2024 was a lot of fun, but it was luck.  

[Tiger337]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Class is dismissed on that one. The final exam answer was that it's wrong.

A top executive in a multi-billionaire dollar business fails to make one of the biggest deals of his tenure.  I guess "there was nothing he could do about it" is a fair excuse.

[Tenacious D]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He may have had input in their desperation run, but the fact is he traded key pieces at the trade deadline.  You can maybe give him credit for giving Hinch the OK to execute pitching chaos, but he put the team in a position where it was almost impossible to win.  I simply don't believe the plan was to trade two of their best pitchers at the deadline and then win with pitching chaos.  That was an experiment to help them get through the season and a miracle happened.  They kind of tried it again in the second half of 25 and it didn't work.  2024 was a lot of fun, but it was luck.  

Agree—any other explanation that this was all part of a plan to make a playoff run is spin or revisionism.

It’s ironic that we played poorly in ‘24 until post trade deadline and made it to the ALDS via an improbable playoff run.  The complete opposite happened in ‘25, yet still yielded the same outcome.

[oblong]

Too many people here think baseball is stratomatic where outcomes are binary. There’s strategy, philosophy, long term goals, internal processes.  I guess you are all right. Scott Harris sucks donkey balls.  You can go back to the glory days of Randy Smith and Jose Macias. At least he had a plan. 
Quit listening to talk radio and twitter.  Those folks don’t know ****  

 

[Edman85]

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

Too many people here think baseball is stratomatic where outcomes are binary. There’s strategy, philosophy, long term goals, internal processes.  I guess you are all right. Scott Harris sucks donkey balls.  You can go back to the glory days of Randy Smith and Jose Macias. At least he had a plan. 
Quit listening to talk radio and twitter.  Those folks don’t know ****  

 

I am an alumnus of a school with perennial top 5 basketball team, an emerging blue blood, with arguably the best (if not most articulate) head coach in the country that is a legitimate national championship contender.

The fan base erupts after a loss or a bad half. The social media algorithm is turned up to 11, I think.

Edited 1 hour ago by Edman85

[oblong]

35 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Once the players are on the roster how much input does a GM have on what happens on the field? It would be managing the rotation of guys up and down from Toledo. That's a task that certainly affects outcome and where a manager and GM are cooperating. Now we don't really know how the org handles that. I'm sure there are orgs where the manager simply calls the GM and tells him who he wants when, and there are probably some where the GM provides a lot more input into the decisions. So Maybe Harris gets a lot of credit here, maybe 95% belonged to Hinch.

I think a GM/POBO has a tremendous amount of input in how pitchers are used, especially what they did in late 24.  All of the data they used came from the people and system that Harris implemented, no?  I’m sure it was a team effort behind Fetter watching a guy in the bullpen, smacking his belly, and saying “yep, that’s what we will do”. 

[SoCalTiger]

17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

A top executive in a multi-billionaire dollar business fails to make one of the biggest deals of his tenure.  I guess "there was nothing he could do about it" is a fair excuse.

I "think" that situation, last off seasons trade deadline results, and this off season so far are all related. Harris has a very clear process on "value' and does not deviate from it. He thought Erod would ok the LA deal and was willing to gamble (and lost) because other deals did not match his return. Last off season he wasn't trading our core prospects and after our top five the league did not value the rest as much as he did so no deals. As for Free agency I don't think he believes the prices are a good value. 

He has plan and a process and we have to allow him to play it out and hopefully "revise" it should that be prudent. I think he will. His press will be bad because he simply does not talk to them. Luck or not he has two consecutive playoff appearances   and 2026 will be number three. 

[Tiger337]

22 minutes ago, oblong said:

Too many people here think baseball is stratomatic where outcomes are binary. There’s strategy, philosophy, long term goals, internal processes.  I guess you are all right. Scott Harris sucks donkey balls.  You can go back to the glory days of Randy Smith and Jose Macias. At least he had a plan. 
Quit listening to talk radio and twitter.  Those folks don’t know ****  

 

Again, I think Harris is a good GM and I Iike his overall plan.  I just think he is very rigid and I would prefer that he took more risks.  I don't understand why people get so sensitive to any critique of Harris at all.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Tiger337

[buddha]

42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

A top executive in a multi-billionaire dollar business fails to make one of the biggest deals of his tenure.  I guess "there was nothing he could do about it" is a fair excuse.

This is the correct take.

class is dismissed.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

I think a GM/POBO has a tremendous amount of input in how pitchers are used, especially what they did in late 24.  All of the data they used came from the people and system that Harris implemented, no?  I’m sure it was a team effort behind Fetter watching a guy in the bullpen, smacking his belly, and saying “yep, that’s what we will do”. 

I think you can separate a couple of different aspect here though. You are talking about the long term health of the org issues - the tech, the data flow etc., but I think most of us looking at the situation at the end of '24 are asking the question did he have any input over that period in particular that helped them win - that's a more dubious proposition, and I think the conclusion that he absolutely was not working to make the playoffs that year as of his trade deadline moves is inarguable. I'm sure he was pitching in with whatever help he could offer once they started winning, I just don't think there was much specific other than those general kinds of support and managing the Toledo shuttle, that he could provide. He cast the die, if didn't come up as he had to have expected because his team and his manager exceeded his expectations. I don't know how much credit you can give a guy for that.

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

the numbers floating around for Framber Valdez have been 5/$160. Tigers could certainly afford that but I haven't seen them listed as in the hunt even once.

Nor Imai... not a word and he went to the Astros.

Bregman chose the Red Sox (last year) which I understood...

But nothing of significance for the Tigers, no Tucker, no Bregman, no... anything.

I'm starting to get the feeling that Harris prefers, and is comfortable with...

Only...

bottom-feeding.

And there's nothing wrong with that... treasures can be mined out of the bottom of the barrel sometimes (injury recoveries, Flaherty/ Finnegan, etc...). But also, some hot garbage, with last year as a really good example.

It can't just be ONLY that. Bottom feeding trying to find some lost treasure.

Is Harris capable of finding higher end talent on the market? Or does he even have any interest there? Or do they have zero interest in the Tigers? Or is Harris only a bottom-feeder? Can he build a top-end championship competitive team? Out of bottom feeding only? Or will he surprise us one of these years and make a franchise altering trade or free agent signing that sets us up nicely?

The answers, to me... will determine whether Harris is a long-term answer to our GM position or whether he was only capable of fixing the Avila errors and... nothing more. Building a true draft and development organization is a huge plus for me. I think he has this Org positioned nicely for the future and therefore I am still heavily on his bandwagon. But the ability to build top-level championship competitive teams is the end goal to me, not building a really good farm system.

So...

We'll see.

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

That’s a good question. I think there are ripple effects that go beyond what that signing in isolation would mean to the business’s bottom line, one of which is how attractive Detroit might look as a destination if we commit to the best pitcher in the game today. There might be a model for that, but I wouldn’t know how to model that myself. Speaking as a man who negotiated for a living, I have a strong feeling it would help us anttract other talent.

As for the $40 million a season—I’m certain Harris would leap at the chance to sign Skubal for $40 million a season for four years. Even $50 million a season for four years. I know I would.

Attracting other talent? Thats a huge leap. This Tigers organization doesn't go after long term expensive players. Players will sign with the teams that offer them the most money, in most cases. The Tigers seem to limit contracts to 2 or 3 years, signing players coming off of injury or after an ineffective season on a "prove it" contract as a stepping stone to future big contracts. When I wonder if signing Skubal to a huge deal would benefit the business end of our team, I meant more of the fan base and any profits for winning the division and making the playoffs? I just wonder how much is the difference on the business end between playing .500 or playing .650 ball and seriously contending?

[Tigermojo]

I doubt Harris is involving himself in game decisions. He came to Detroit looking to upgrade every aspect of the organization. The clubhouse, staff, fan experience, minor leagues, culture, nutrition, medical, performance, control the zone, come here to improve, etc. Too bad he sucks and has no impact on the team....

[1984Echoes]

22 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Again, I think Harris is a good GM and I Iike his overall plan.  I just think he is very rigid and I would prefer that he took more risks.  I don't understand why people get so sensitive to any critique of Harris at all.  

This is so completely beyond the pale it's ridiculous:

45 minutes ago, oblong said:

....  I guess you are all right. Scott Harris sucks donkey balls...

 

I would like to see the SPECIFIC QUOTE where someone has said this.

Aside from YOU.

I want receipts, as chas likes to say.

[SoCalTiger]

22 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Again, I think Harris is a good GM and I Iike his overall plan.  I just think he is very rigid and I would prefer that he took more risks.  I don't understand why people get so sensitive to any critique of Harris at all.  

This is very fair. He is rigid ( it has been reported as well )but has talked about taking risks beginning with his introductory press conference. So we wait and assume it will be calculated and beneficial. 

[SoCalTiger]

12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Nor Imai... not a word and he went to the Astros.

Bregman chose the Red Sox (last year) which I understood...

But nothing of significance for the Tigers, no Tucker, no Bregman, no... anything.

I'm starting to get the feeling that Harris prefers, and is comfortable with...

Only...

bottom-feeding.

And there's nothing wrong with that... treasures can be mined out of the bottom of the barrel sometimes (injury recoveries, Flaherty/ Finnegan, etc...). But also, some hot garbage, with last year as a really good example.

It can't just be ONLY that. Bottom feeding trying to find some lost treasure.

Is Harris capable of finding higher end talent on the market? Or does he even have any interest there? Or do they have zero interest in the Tigers? Or is Harris only a bottom-feeder? Can he build a top-end championship competitive team? Out of bottom feeding only? Or will he surprise us one of these years and make a franchise altering trade or free agent signing that sets us up nicely?

The answers, to me... will determine whether Harris is a long-term answer to our GM position or whether he was only capable of fixing the Avila errors and... nothing more. Building a true draft and development organization is a huge plus for me. I think he has this Org positioned nicely for the future and therefore I am still heavily on his bandwagon. But the ability to build top-level championship competitive teams is the end goal to me, not building a really good farm system.

So...

We'll see.

All true. If you only build through the draft then you're a scouting/farm director and not a PBO. But I think he is a very good PBO and will do all in time and at the right value. If not then we get the pitch forks out 😀

[Stormin]

I am encouraged by the Tigers direction.  The Tigers recent actions seem in line with the 2000 to 2022 Cardinals.  Always competitive, did not worry about windows, winning season 22 out of 23 years, in the playoffs 16 out of 23 years,  and almost never signed a free agent for more than 4 years.  Good things can happen if a team is consistently competitive.   The 2006 Cardinals were 83-78 and beat the Tigers in the World Series.

I think most free agents are over hyped,  over valued.   Long term contracts are high risks that can set the franchise back years. In the history of baseball most players decline substantially in their mid/late 30s (barring pharmaceutical assistance).   Maybe the one free agent exception is a 6 WAR player who could go into the HOF with an English D on his hat.

The current Tigers roster offers realistic 1.5 to 2.0 WAR potential at every position and throughout the starting rotation  (counting on addition by subtraction at SS - sorry Trey Sweeney).   Does a long term, high risk free agent with a ~3.5 WAR ceiling make sense if the team can consistently develop talent internally?

[Tigermojo]

Some big contracts have been absolutely disastrous and people judge Harris for not signing the "big" name? I'll take the best team I can get even if it's 40 guys named Wenceel Perez. It's performance now that matters.

[Tigermojo]

Adding Javy Baez did not add 5 WAR or 4 WAR to the Tigers. He added 2 or less WAR and he was only 29 when he signed here.

[oblong]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Again, I think Harris is a good GM and I Iike his overall plan.  I just think he is very rigid and I would prefer that he took more risks.  I don't understand why people get so sensitive to any critique of Harris at all.  

That sounds a lot more subjective than you typically are. To have that as a standard would require some kind of knowledge of potential moves that he willingly passed on. The only one we can legit infer was when he all but admitted the price for Suarez would have been Melton.  It’s too “intangible-ish” for my liking.  Like reaching for something to criticize him for.