Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Tiger337]

27 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

It's not one or the other per say.  It's is he worth $1 more or less than the mid-point of $25.5 mil.  If the formula says he's worth $25 mil, the arbitrator goes with $19 mil. If the forumula says he's worth $26 mil, they go with $32 mil.

But if the Tigers had offered 25 million, the mid-point becomes 28.5.  So, they would have better chance of winning.  Offering 19 makes sense if you think that the arbitrator will arrive at a figure between 19 and 25.5.  I am assuming that is what they think.  Either that, or they underestimated the 32 million figure.  

[oblong]

There are no hurt feelings and it will have zero impact on whether he signs here. It's a business. They all know and understand it.   Boras is smart he probably already knew what their number would be.

 

[1984Echoes]

13 hours ago, Edman85 said:

But the arbitrator can only choose one of the two numbers, so if the team knew Boras was asking for 30+  why not go low and try?

Because the Tigers have now just significantly increased the chances that they lose...

IE: If Boras makes the argument that salaries are x % higher than during Price's time, and that Skubal is far superior to Price after winning the last two Cy Youngs... The arbitrator may decide that Skubal is worth a bare minimum of $28 mill or more, and go with Boras's number.

If the Tigers had offered $25.5 mill, and Boras $31 mill... the arb may break at +/- midpoint which throws it back to $25.5 instead of the over at $31 mill.

I think the Tigers increased their exposure to losing by "low-balling".

8 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

we probably could have predicted 32M as the ask as Soto has the largest pre-free agency salary ever of 31M. Boras and Skubal are both very interested in setting new price markers, first with the arbitration award, and then in free agency (for both years and total comp).

and there in no way an arbitrator decides Skubal is worth less than Price, so Skubal has already won

 

This is what I fear will happen.

[buddha]

13 minutes ago, oblong said:

There are no hurt feelings and it will have zero impact on whether he signs here. It's a business. They all know and understand it.   Boras is smart he probably already knew what their number would be.

 

as someone who manages a lot of people, if i went into an open process like arbitration and said all sorts of things about how they didnt deserve the same salary as x, y, or z, there would be hurt feelings.  no matter how much money they made.

i know "its a business", but its still hard to hear that your employer doesnt think youre worth what you think youre worth.  baseball players arent robots.

[GalagaGuy]

The Tigers just come off looking cheap by trying to low-ball Skubal and I would think that is something other players might take notice of when deciding who they want to play for.   

[papalawrence]

I think this is mostly about Boras making a statement. The highest arb ever was Price at 19.75. The largest jump from arb year to arb year was just under 10 mil. Yes these were several years ago and need adjustments. Even so, Boras is requesting the arb jump to be 22 mil, more than double the largest jump ever. And his request is 12 mil over any arb ever.

To me Boras is making a statement to forget about what any other pitcher has ever made. This is Skubal. And I think Boras' initial FA expectation for Skubal will be similarly historic, something like 10/500. He won't get that, but barring injury or huge drop-off this year, that's what I expect to see next off season. Of course the CBA issue could change everything.

 

Edited 13 hours ago by papalawrence

[Tiger337]

22 minutes ago, buddha said:

as someone who manages a lot of people, if i went into an open process like arbitration and said all sorts of things about how they didnt deserve the same salary as x, y, or z, there would be hurt feelings.  no matter how much money they made.

i know "its a business", but its still hard to hear that your employer doesnt think youre worth what you think youre worth.  baseball players arent robots.

I could imagine Eduardo Rodriguez going into a passive aggressive snit.  

[oblong]

30 minutes ago, buddha said:

as someone who manages a lot of people, if i went into an open process like arbitration and said all sorts of things about how they didnt deserve the same salary as x, y, or z, there would be hurt feelings.  no matter how much money they made.

i know "its a business", but its still hard to hear that your employer doesnt think youre worth what you think youre worth.  baseball players arent robots.

They're also not prepubuscent middle schoolers. But I was referring strictly to the numbers, not what would be said in a hearing.  Skubal didn't see that number and think "WTF?  **** THESE GUYS"

 

[buddha]

Just now, oblong said:

They're also not prepubuscent middle schoolers. But I was referring strictly to the numbers, not what would be said in a hearing.  Skubal didn't see that number and think "WTF?  **** THESE GUYS"

 

how do we know he doesnt?

again, these guys are human.  youre right, they know its a business, but we all work in business.  and not everyone is mature enough to let things go.  i imagine boras has told him everything that you've said, and everything you've said about it being a "business" and he's not a middle schooler is correct, but that doesnt mean he wont take offense, wont hold a grudge, and wont think about it the next time he has leverage....which should be in about 10 months.

[CMRivdogs]

Assuming the arbitrator's ruling comes back with  the higher number, what can the Tigers reasonably expect to get in a return if they pursue a trade? How many teams are realistically going to pony $30 million plus give up a prime prospect (#1 or #2 in their system?

[Edman85]

I'm trying to dig up the articles, but the studies out there have not really shown any hurt feeling effect for players who went through arbitration. They really just take the best deal they can. Some re-sign, but not any less than those who don't get their feelings hurt in arbitration. It's water under the bridge by the time free agency rolls around.

In this case, the arguments will be less hurtful, more trying to establish precedent anyways. If the Tigers go in saying "He should make what David Price and Jacob DeGrom made," that's not exactly a slap in the face.

Anybody expecting an elite Boras client to re-sign before free agency is fooling themselves anyways.

Edited 12 hours ago by Edman85

[Tiger337]

17 minutes ago, buddha said:

how do we know he doesnt?

again, these guys are human.  youre right, they know its a business, but we all work in business.  and not everyone is mature enough to let things go.  i imagine boras has told him everything that you've said, and everything you've said about it being a "business" and he's not a middle schooler is correct, but that doesnt mean he wont take offense, wont hold a grudge, and wont think about it the next time he has leverage....which should be in about 10 months.

Dombrowski did not like the process and wanted to avoid it every year.  

[oblong]

40 minutes ago, buddha said:

how do we know he doesnt?

again, these guys are human.  youre right, they know its a business, but we all work in business.  and not everyone is mature enough to let things go.  i imagine boras has told him everything that you've said, and everything you've said about it being a "business" and he's not a middle schooler is correct, but that doesnt mean he wont take offense, wont hold a grudge, and wont think about it the next time he has leverage....which should be in about 10 months.

because I believe that whatever is inside of him that made him the pitcher he is prevents him from being emotional and petty about such things.

He's made a lot of money.  He's going to make a lot of money in 2026 $19-32M, maybe more if he were to sign a bigger deal.  He's going to make a boat load more.  I'm guessing he's feeling good about life and knows this is a process that he has to go through and at no point so far has anything unexpected happened.

 

 

[papalawrence]

Cody on Tigers Territory explained the 32 million. Skubal has 5+ years of service time already, so his arb is not compared to other arb pitchers. He can compare his production to all other pitchers. So he could have even asked for more. I was not aware of the 5+ factor. 

[Stormin]

15 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Skubal is better now than Price was then and there has been about 25% inflation since 2015,  so Price's award was closer to $25M in today's dollars. 

Agree that Price's 19.75M was a ways back, contract was with Tigers, and Skubal's peak WAR season is better.

Arguments on the Tigers front office side will be Price worked his way up to 19.75M.  Price had a longer track record (4 all star games, CYA and a second place in CYA) and pitched over 200 innings in 4 seasons including 248 innings the year before the 19.75M agreement.

Will the arbitrators decide to more than triple Skubal's salary in one year?

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

There was a time when the Tigers players never made it to arbitration...years.

yes  - There was a long stretch over which either because of Mr I or DD, the Tigers didn't have any cases ever get to the arbitrator. I don't remember for sure, there might have been one late in DD's tenure, but for the Tigers it was essentially  - no cases go to arb. 

Edited 10 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Anybody expecting an elite Boras client to re-sign before free agency is fooling themselves anyways.

this. Was true from the beginning and remains so.

Edited 10 hours ago by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, buddha said:

how do we know he doesnt?

again, these guys are human. 

which also means they are all different. And that's the thing, you don't know what nerve you might hit with one guy which might not faze 99 other guys. So it's probably too variable to worry about that much.

[buddha]

3 hours ago, oblong said:

because I believe that whatever is inside of him that made him the pitcher he is prevents him from being emotional and petty about such things.

He's made a lot of money.  He's going to make a lot of money in 2026 $19-32M, maybe more if he were to sign a bigger deal.  He's going to make a boat load more.  I'm guessing he's feeling good about life and knows this is a process that he has to go through and at no point so far has anything unexpected happened.

 

 

i think emotion and an incredible sense of competitiveness got him there as well as incredible athletic talent.

if you dont think great athletes can be petty and hold grudges over "business" and minor transgressions, i direct your attention to Michael Jeffrey Jordan.  sometimes minor slights drive great athletes.

im not saying this is happening with skubal, but dismissing it out of hand because "well, they know its a business" is just as likely to be false.

[Sports_Freak]

9 hours ago, Shelton said:

It’s a fascinating case and I love it.

 

What I don’t love is that the narrative machine is already humming. Tony Paul last night was like “the tigers think that Skubal is worth only 4 million more than Cobb.” I really like how we will have the Cobb contract to reference for years to come. 
 

It was probably the most stupid contract the Tigers ever gave. It will be discussed for years, Cobb was planning to retire until he was offered crazy money...

Please....nobody tell the Tigers that Bonderman is working on a change-up. $10 million would get his outta retirement....😅😅

[buddha]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

which also means they are all different. And that's the thing, you don't know what nerve you might hit with one guy which might not faze 99 other guys. So it's probably too variable to worry about that much.

but this guy isnt 99 other guys.  its your best player. 

that said, we'll never know because were not privy to all the information, and it is just as likely that this is driven by boras as by the tigers.  its equally as likely that boras told skubal "the tigers are likely to come in at $19 to get to a number like $25, so we'll come in at $32."

as you pointed out, DD and others hate this process because it makes you go in and tell your player how less valuable they are than they think they are.  better to resolve it out of "court" than have to publicly denounce your talent.

[Sports_Freak]

8 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2026-edition?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage - Tigers are 13th! WTF are we doing. Trade SKubal now. 

But 6th in the AL.   In December. Meaningless...

[Motor City Sonics]

$32 million is high, but you can't argue the ask.  Back To Back Cy.  

[Motor City Sonics]

What the hell does a power ranking from some random media source have to do with anything? 

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, buddha said:

i think emotion and an incredible sense of competitiveness got him there as well as incredible athletic talent.

if you dont think great athletes can be petty and hold grudges over "business" and minor transgressions, i direct your attention to Michael Jeffrey Jordan.  sometimes minor slights drive great athletes.

im not saying this is happening with skubal, but dismissing it out of hand because "well, they know its a business" is just as likely to be false.

I wonder how **** Allen would have reacted to arbitration?