2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Josh Donaldson isn't too impressed with Detroit. While I think most of us here understand the 19 million offer, on the surface I see where it can be interpreted as Detroit being cheap. Foul Territory has made similar comments in the past. Not good if players start to view Detroit as being cheap, fair or not.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16pmuMyCRA/

 

 

 

Ex-player rakes organization for not giving an active player all the money he wants? Dog bites man, indeed!

[Motor City Sonics]

6 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

You make it sound so bad… but most everyone in baseball seems to be doing their version of running with the big dogs so you’ve got a point. I was never expecting Bregman. But I was expecting a lot more than what’s happened.

I was not expecting (and hoping they would not sign) Bregman and once I heard what Bichette wants -- good riddance.  But this team is missing a few things.  We all know that we need a Starting Pitcher and another pitcher who has the ability to start when called upon.  Right now I have four (Skubal, MIze, Flahery, Olson) and a whole lot of maybes and what ifs. There are a few guys out there that they can get that won't break the bank.   I know folks scoff at Bassitt and Giolito, but both of those guys would absolutely fill a need and why not aim higher with Valdez and Suare? Sure, you'd have to sign those guyys for the long haul, but seeing the future and the very real possibility that 3 of our 4 starters will be gone a year from now, I don't see how signing one of those bigger two guys really hurts this team.    We don't know what Melton is yet.  We don't know how well or quickly Jobe will recover and I don't see a lot of reinforcements coming from the farm with that position anymore.   So,  you look towards 2027 (if there is a season) and beyond, you could have  Jobe, Olson, Melton, Suarez and then whatever blue chip they get in the Skubal trade.    And if they do trade Skubal, you'd better hit on one of the guys you get back.   I don't care if he's a rental, if they don't get 3 Top 15s, including a Top 5 prospect in return, then just don't make the deal.   Just don't settle. 

I shudder when I think of what they settled for with J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander.   Should have just kept them and taken the draft compensation.   Would have been WAY better off.    It was a hatful of hollow. 

I know we have time to go, but if they don't come out of this with one of Bassitt, Giolito, Suarez or Valdez, I am going to feel like this offseason was a failure.    That trade deadline last year, I mean, nice pull with Finnegan, but what in the world was that about with Morton and Sewald.  An old man and a guy who couldn't even pitch at the time.   

My belief is that they are targeting 2028-2032 as being serious  WS contenders.   That they believe that they are good enough to make the playoffs now but not get all the way to the Series.    But lets be honest - we've had two straight seasons of Divisional Round exits going 5 games and just one more reliable bat moves them to the ALCS.     So they aren't that far off right now.   I understand being conservative because they believe that Greene, Tork, Carp and Dingler will be in their prime with McGonigle, Clark Briceno and Rainer all coming up together and that will make an outstanding lineup if the prospects come close to panning out.   That's a rock-solid team right there.    But signing one good pitcher now doesn't knock the train off the tracks.   I don't expect much out of Montero and GIpson-Long.  Those guys feel like perpetual rainy-day starters.   They need more.    They (and every other team) needs to go into the season, realistically with 8 guys that can be major league starters now.   Might not be like that 3 years from now.  I think after the upcoming CBA,  that most teams will carry 2 legit starters with a pitching chaos model that becomes the norm.  The big money teams will have 4 or 5 starters but the "small market" teams will  have to come up with a new way.   I do expect roster expansion (specifically pitchers) will be part of the next CBA - where teams can carry 28 players and 15 pitchers.   It might be the only way smaller market teams get a realistic shot, because they can never afford the top line starters. 

 

Wow, that was long-winded, but convalescing at home right now with not much to do.     My Sunday radio shows are done and loaded for tonight and there will be some football to watch, and a dog walk if I don't get too dizzy, but yep, plenty of time to ramble on about baseball land the idea that Summer will return...........eventually. 

[Tenacious D]

There are many quality free agents still unsigned.  And trades can happen at any time.  Let’s see how the rest of the offseason plays out (which will stretch into spring training).

[Sports_Freak]

7 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

There are many quality free agents still unsigned.  And trades can happen at any time.  Let’s see how the rest of the offseason plays out (which will stretch into spring training).

I'm going on record as saying I really like the bullpen Harris is building. 3 guys with 20 save seasons last year? It shortens games to 6 inning games. Get a lead after 6 innings and we'll win a majority of the time. Maybe another starting pitcher for depth...but our lineup and position players are pretty much in place. It should be a fun summer...and again...Hurry Up, Spring Training. 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

what worries me is that you got almost 9 WAR of improvement between '24 and '25  in the core group of Green, Tork, Dingler, Baez, Keith and Torres. I don't see ...

I don't see any improvement from Baez or Torres coming... (EDIT: Actually... I forgot Torres health was subpar the last half of the season so if he stays healthy... maybe he has 1 more additional WAR in him...?)

But I think Dingler, Tork, Greene & Keith can definitely put up better numbers (both fielding as well as hitting)...

I mean... they could also regress... growth is not always linear...

But I think those 4, depending on offseason approach (are they dedicated to improvement?), or recognizing a change in approach is needed (looking at you Greene) and fixing it... or just "young guy still growing/ getting better" (Keith and Dingler) has me optimistic that we could get some growth from these... young guys.

Just a WAG:

I'm hoping for a bare minimum of 12 WAR from those 4 guys. And REALLY looking for 14 WAR. But maybe that is too far a reach.

I don't think those 4 are incapable of providing that performance though...

 

 

Edited 23 hours ago by 1984Echoes

[GalagaGuy]

Not that I care about Bregman going to the Cubs, but why are people acting like Wrigley is some hitters paradise?  Sure, it's got a much shallower center field but as far as down the lines and in the gaps, Comerica has shorter distances to the fences.  

[Tigermojo]

The last two years they went to the playoffs with a rotation of Skubal and question marks. Maybe if they had a solid number two starter they would have wrapped up the series in four games without worrying about game five. The problem is if those types of pitchers prefer to sign somewhere else. 

[1984Echoes]

PS: If you add in 4 WAR between Baez/Torres...

That's 16-18 WAR from those 6 guys...

if we can actually get that...

Then I think we're having a good year.

Just my 2 cents.

[kdog]

$70 million of Bregman's deal is deferred...someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Tigers have done any deferrals in their deals under Harris.

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't see any improvement from Baez or Torres coming...

But I think Dingler, Tork, Greene & Keith can definitely put up better numbers (both fielding as well as hitting)...

I mean... they could also regress... growth is not always linear...

But I think those 4, depending on offseason approach (are they dedicated to improvement?), or recognizing a change in approach is needed (looking at you Greene) and fixing it... or just "young guy still growing/ getting better" (Keith and Dingler) has me optimistic that we could get some growth from these... young guys.

Just a WAG:

I'm hoping for a bare minimum of 12 WAR from those 4 guys. And REALLY looking for 14 WAR. But maybe that is too far a reach.

I don't think those 4 are incapable of providing that performance though...

FanGraphs projects 9.4 combined for those 4 players.  

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS: If you add in 4 WAR between Baez/Torres...

That's 16-18 WAR from those 6 guys...

if we can actually get that...

Then I think we're having a good year.

Just my 2 cents.

FanGraphs has those two at 3.5, so that's 13 total for 6 players.  I am not saying thay can't reach as high as you stated.  Just trying to give an unbiased estimate.  

[Sports_Freak]

17 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

As is always the case, we don’t agree on your assessment.  He’s not a back half of the rotation starter (‘25 All Star).  He’d yield more than a Max Anderson-type, especially for a team trying to manage their budget. 

A team trying to manage their budget is going to hang onto their young, cost controlled pitchers. They may trade their old and expensive pitchers though, a typical salary dump. But that's not the Tigers MO.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

My belief is that they are targeting 2028-2032

I don't see a pitching pipeline forming to support being good 3-5yrs from now. Maybe it's there in the lower levels waiting to break out - I'll be waiting.

Edited 22 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Sports_Freak]

55 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

The last two years they went to the playoffs with a rotation of Skubal and question marks. Maybe if they had a solid number two starter they would have wrapped up the series in four games without worrying about game five. The problem is if those types of pitchers prefer to sign somewhere else. 

A solid number 2 and they may have gotten a bye in the 1st round. But they would still have needed a more consistent offense.

[Sports_Freak]

13 hours ago, chasfh said:

That should spell the end of Matt Shaw in Chicago, although if the Cubs end up trading Nico Hoerner instead, they deserve to miss out on the playoffs next year.

I don’t like Matt Shaw the person, but maybe Scott Harris should go after Matt Shaw the player to play third base for us. We have the prospect capital to pay for him.

Yeah, I'm hearing stories about Shaw's character flaws. If what I hear is true, he probably wouldn't fit in with this Tiger team.

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't see a pitching pipeline forming to support being good 3-5yrs from now. Maybe it's there in the lower levels waiting to break out - I'll be waiting.

You can never project pitching that far ahead anyway because most of them will get derailed by injuries.  That's why when you have a stud like Skubal, you've got to go for it. 

[kdog]

you cannot time contention....I don't get that.

[4hzglory]

31 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Yeah, I'm hearing stories about Shaw's character flaws. If what I hear is true, he probably wouldn't fit in with this Tiger team.

Character flaws to some could be good character to others

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

You can never project pitching that far ahead anyway because most of them will get derailed by injuries.  That's why when you have a stud like Skubal, you've got to go for it. 

Indeed. They way the team mishandled Scherzer always reminds me of the Joni Mitchell tune - "You don't what you've got till it's gone".  They could have paid Scherzer any amount of money and they've have made it back with he and JV anchoring the team for the next 10 yrs. But management always thinks it was all their skill and not just as much luck that got them where they are, so they think they can just easily do it again, any time. Not.So.Much.

[4hzglory]

36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't see a pitching pipeline forming to support being good 3-5yrs from now. Maybe it's there in the lower levels waiting to break out - I'll be waiting.

They have drafted a lot of pitching the past 2 years.  Now almost all of 2024’s class was hurt last year, but if they “got that  of the way” there is significant potential.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, 4hzglory said:

They have drafted a lot of pitching the past 2 years.  Now almost all of 2024’s class was hurt last year, but if they “got that  of the way” there is significant potential.

quantity is pretty useless in baseball. Until some of them do something to prove quality, you got nothing to plan on.

[4hzglory]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

quantity is pretty useless in baseball. Until some of them do something to prove quality, you got nothing to plan on.

Agree, just saying the quality was rated pretty well in 2024 when they were drafted.  Time will tell though.

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

$70 million of Bregman's deal is deferred...someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Tigers have done any deferrals in their deals under Harris.

Michigan's jock tax must not be that extreme, especially at the salaries the Tigers are paying. It is an income tax and luxury tax dodge, so there hasn't been much need.

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Michigan's jock tax must not be that extreme, especially at the salaries the Tigers are paying. It is an income tax and luxury tax dodge, so there hasn't been much need.

Michigan has a 4.25% flat rate income tax, which is probably a bit below avg, but generally high property taxes.

[Tiger337]

40 minutes ago, kdog said:

you cannot time contention....I don't get that.

Very true.  You can build a system that gives you a steady flow of good prospects and that is something I am hoping this administration can do.  However, you can never know when it will all gel together into a winner.