2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[casimir]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

For as much as fans wanted Harris’s priority to be supercharging the offense by acquiring proven major leaguers, it’s worth remembering that last season, with essentially this same team, the Tigers’ offense finished 12th in wOBA, above the midpoint, but also, 7th in wOBAcon, 9th in xwOBA, and 5th in xwOBAcon. Not for nothing, they also finished 11th in runs, and were 8th before they slid. And they did this with one of the youngest offenses in baseball. This means they are doing the right things to score, and there’s still room for growth.

Harris will get raked if the offense goes splat this year, and he’ll have earned that as the guy responsible for it. But the way things looked after their performance last year, standing pat on the core position players, if that’s what we end up doing, will have been a reasonable decision to make.

Of course, there’s a lot of time between now and March 26—one month from tomorrow!—to make a move and finalize the roster. But I won’t be disappointed on that day if we don’t.

Hold on, they created stats with BAcon?  That's tasty.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

For as much as fans wanted Harris’s priority to be supercharging the offense by acquiring proven major leaguers, it’s worth remembering that last season, with essentially this same team, the Tigers’ offense finished 12th in wOBA, above the midpoint, but also, 7th in wOBAcon, 9th in xwOBA, and 5th in xwOBAcon. Not for nothing, they also finished 11th in runs, and were 8th before they slid. And they did this with one of the youngest offenses in baseball. This means they are doing the right things to score, and there’s still room for growth.

Harris will get raked if the offense goes splat this year, and he’ll have earned that as the guy responsible for it. But the way things looked after their performance last year, standing pat on the core position players, if that’s what we end up doing, will have been a reasonable decision to make.

Of course, there’s a lot of time between now and March 26—one month from tomorrow!—to make a move and finalize the roster. But I won’t be disappointed on that day if we don’t.

Also...

Kevin McGonigle now, or very very soon...

Max Clark later in the season (IMO. Around September-ish is my guess)...

Plus, in a minor way... I think Hao Yu Lee will be in Detroit this year and be a positive for the team...

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

For as much as fans wanted Harris’s priority to be supercharging the offense by acquiring proven major leaguers, it’s worth remembering that last season, with essentially this same team, the Tigers’ offense finished 12th in wOBA, above the midpoint, but also, 7th in wOBAcon, 9th in xwOBA, and 5th in xwOBAcon. Not for nothing, they also finished 11th in runs, and were 8th before they slid. And they did this with one of the youngest offenses in baseball. This means they are doing the right things to score, and there’s still room for growth.

Harris will get raked if the offense goes splat this year, and he’ll have earned that as the guy responsible for it. But the way things looked after their performance last year, standing pat on the core position players, if that’s what we end up doing, will have been a reasonable decision to make.

Of course, there’s a lot of time between now and March 26—one month from tomorrow!—to make a move and finalize the roster. But I won’t be disappointed on that day if we don’t.

FanGraphs projects them to finish 16th in the league in runs scored.  There were more gains to made on the pitching side and I am not upset that they didn't acquire a hitter, but I am not going to pretend that they don't have potential weaknesses in their line-up.  On the positive side, FanGraphs projects them to finish second in run prevention.  Great pitching and average offense is typically a successful mix.  

[Motor City Sonics]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

FanGraphs projects them to finish 16th in the league in runs scored.  There were more gains to made on the pitching side and I am not upset that they didn't acquire a hitter, but I am not going to pretend that they don't have potential weaknesses in their line-up.  On the positive side, FanGraphs projects them to finish second in run prevention.  Great pitching and average offense is typically a successful mix.  

I'm not feeling very positive about Riley Greene this season.     His 2nd Half was brutal.    .694 OPS is garbage.   And he was no-show in the Seattle series.    That uppercut swing gave him more HRs, but he needs to put the ball in play a lot more.  

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I'm not feeling very positive about Riley Greene this season.     His 2nd Half was brutal.    .694 OPS is garbage.   And he was no-show in the Seattle series.    That uppercut swing gave him more HRs, but he needs to put the ball in play a lot more.  

The thing with Riley is that it's not asking him to do something he hadn't already done before. He was at a 26.7% K rate/11% BB a year earlier. He basically just has to undo the move to the extreme loft swing he had only added last year, and his natural strength increase will probably give more HR than in 24 with the same approach.

The problem is no-one ever accused baseball players of being the most self-aware observers of their own game.

Edited yesterday at 05:03 PM by gehringer_2

[tiger2022]

I think the Tigers infield defense leaves a lot to be desired.  

The one thing they have on defense is some of the better catchers in the game.  Dingler won the GG and rightfully so and Rogers is way above average behind the plate.  Outside of Skubal, Dingler was the team MVP last season.  I'm not sure people realize how much Dingler contributed to the success last year.

Strong up the middle.  Baez needs to play SS and Meadows needs to stay healthy and hit just a bit.  Torres has limited range but at least makes all the routine plays.

Edited yesterday at 05:11 PM by tiger2022

[Tigermojo]

We saw last year, they were dangerous when most guys were healthy. Once Gleyber was injured, the quality of at bats suffered in the second half. Nobody can really carry the team for long so they need everyone focused on controlling the zone. 

[papalawrence]

3 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

Chris McCosky@cmccosky

22m

AJ Hinch said Troy Melton is dealing with some arm soreness, which is why he hasn't gotten a start yet. They are giving him some time for the soreness to subside.

Tick, tock, the inevitable surgery clock

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

I think the Tigers infield defense leaves a lot to be desired.  

The one thing they have on defense is some of the better catchers in the game.  Dingler won the GG and rightfully so and Rogers is way above average behind the plate.  Outside of Skubal, Dingler was the team MVP last season.  I'm not sure people realize how much Dingler contributed to the success last year.

Strong up the middle.  Baez needs to play SS and Meadows needs to stay healthy and hit just a bit.  Torres has limited range but at least makes all the routine plays.

yeah - they have a reasonable number of decent defenders, the question is whether those players can hit enough to stay in the lineup. Keith is a question mark but I'm moderately optimistic he'll be OK at 3rd.

[Motor City Sonics]

4 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Tick, tock, the inevitable surgery clock

Go ahead and schedule him now.   We'll see you in July of 2028 when baseball finally returns. 

[casimir]

7 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

I think the Tigers infield defense leaves a lot to be desired.  

The one thing they have on defense is some of the better catchers in the game.  Dingler won the GG and rightfully so and Rogers is way above average behind the plate.  Outside of Skubal, Dingler was the team MVP last season.  I'm not sure people realize how much Dingler contributed to the success last year.

Strong up the middle.  Baez needs to play SS and Meadows needs to stay healthy and hit just a bit.  Torres has limited range but at least makes all the routine plays.

I agree, I think there is something to being strong up the middle.  What I wonder about is range in this day and age of defensive positioning.  Is range as important as it used to be?  Certainly having that skill set works well regardless of where the fielder sets up.

[casimir]

8 hours ago, NorthWoods said:

Chris McCosky@cmccosky

22m

AJ Hinch said Troy Melton is dealing with some arm soreness, which is why he hasn't gotten a start yet. They are giving him some time for the soreness to subside.

You can never have enough pitching.

[Screwball]

26 minutes ago, casimir said:

I agree, I think there is something to being strong up the middle.  What I wonder about is range in this day and age of defensive positioning.  Is range as important as it used to be?  Certainly having that skill set works well regardless of where the fielder sets up.

The stat stuff today is off the charts. We read it here. I think we are both "aged" so you may remember. Back when we were in little league, maybe high school, it was about the "5 tools." They gave you a grade on each tool. Hit, hit for power, catch/field, throw, and run. Something like a 40 to 80 grade system. Simple.

If you don't have the last one (run), you don't have ****.

Edited 20 hours ago by Screwball

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

FanGraphs projects them to finish 16th in the league in runs scored.  There were more gains to made on the pitching side and I am not upset that they didn't acquire a hitter, but I am not going to pretend that they don't have potential weaknesses in their line-up.  On the positive side, FanGraphs projects them to finish second in run prevention.  Great pitching and average offense is typically a successful mix.  

If I had to pick a spot where the biggest offensive weakness is probably baked in, it’s CF. Every other position, there’s a fairly wide range of potential outcomes depending on how much progress certain guys at certain positions can make, and of course, whether McGonigle breaks camp at short. But Tork, Torres, Keith, Riley, Carpenter, and Dingler all have the potential to rake. Or to flop.

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, casimir said:

Hold on, they created stats with BAcon?  That's tasty.

Wo. Bacon.

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If I had to pick a spot where the biggest offensive weakness is probably baked in, it’s CF. Every other position, there’s a fairly wide range of potential outcomes depending on how much progress certain guys at certain positions can make, and of course, whether McGonigle breaks camp at short. But Tork, Torres, Keith, Riley, Carpenter, and Dingler all have the potential to rake. Or to flop.

If I had to rank my 5 top question marks for this season, "will Meadows hit enough to be the regular CF" is probably #1; followed by "can Keith hold down 3rd with the glove" #2; then "which Flaherty do we get" #3; Can Riley be more productive" #4; and finally "What does JV have left in the tank" #5

Edited 18 hours ago by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

33 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If I had to rank my 5 top question marks for this season, "will Meadows hit enough to be the regular CF" is probably #1; followed by "can Keith hold down 3rd with the glove" #2; then "which Flaherty do we get" #3; Can Riley be more productive" #4; and finally "What does JV have left in the tank" #5

I would think “can Tork prove once and for all he can hit” and “can Kenley make a real difference in the back of the pen” might be up there as well.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I would think “can Tork prove once and for all he can hit” and “can Kenley make a real difference in the back of the pen” might be up there as well.

Certainement.

[TigerNation]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The thing with Riley is that it's not asking him to do something he hadn't already done before. He was at a 26.7% K rate/11% BB a year earlier. He basically just has to undo the move to the extreme loft swing he had only added last year, and his natural strength increase will probably give more HR than in 24 with the same approach.

The problem is no-one ever accused baseball players of being the most self-aware observers of their own game.

It wasn't just the change in swing, he was a lot more aggressive last year. His swing% went up 8.3%. His in zone swing% went 7.3%, his chase rate went up 8.1%, his 1st pitch swing% went up 10.9%, and his meatball swing% went up 10.8%. 

After 2024 I thought the next step for Riley would be to be more aggressive in the zone. If he can find a way to maintain his in zone aggressiveness while returning back to his old chase rate he could make a big jump.

[tiger2022]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

If I had to rank my 5 top question marks for this season, "will Meadows hit enough to be the regular CF" is probably #1; followed by "can Keith hold down 3rd with the glove" #2; then "which Flaherty do we get" #3; Can Riley be more productive" #4; and finally "What does JV have left in the tank" #5

Meadows is not going to hit much.  He doesn't have the skills with the bat.  I think his avg will be around .210 and maybe 15 home runs.  Is that enough to keep him in the lineup?  Probably depends on how the other guys do.

I also think Keith's defense will cost the Tigers some games.  His bat needs to improve a lot to justify keeping him in the lineup with his horrid defense.

Riley should be fine.  It's a new year.

Verlander is toast.  He'll miss half the season, have a few good starts and look like Charlie Morton most of the time.  Could have used that $16 million for an outfield bat or 3rd base bat.  Just paying for memories.

[Edman85]

Found the error in Roster Resource CBT numbers. They were off by 10M due to Flaherty's Valley charge, and should have the Tigers under the CBT once they fix it...

[Tenacious D]

20 hours ago, casimir said:

You can never have enough pitching.

Too bad Scherzer just signed.  Perhap McCosky can help us identify some more “old friends”

[Tigermojo]

19 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Too bad Scherzer just signed.  Perhap McCosky can help us identify some more “old friends”

I believe Cobb is available. *ducks*