gehringer_2 Posted June 17 Posted June 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: The goal of any hockey team is to make and win The Stanley Cup. In order to win a Stanley Cup the data is fairly clear, you need to score goals to win one. This team has a scoring problem and I used AI to give me some data around points, goals, and Stanley Cup winners. I asked ChatGPT a series of questions to get some data back on this. Q1: How many teams have won a Cup since 1990 without a player who produced over 90 points A: Of those 35 Cup winners 19 teams had a player who produced 90+ points and 16 did not have a 90+ point player. Q2: How many Cup winning teams had two guys over 80+ points in a season? A: Of the 16 Stanley Cup winners since 1990 that did not have a 90-point scorer, 8 teams had at least two players score more than 80 points in the regular season. Q3: Of the last 35 Cup winners, how many teams had at least 10 guys above 30 points? A: Of the 35 Cup winners from 1990 through 2025, 31 teams had at least 10 players score 30 or more points during the regular season. Q4: Of the last 35 Cup winners, how many teams had at least 10 guys above 12 or more goals? A: Of the 35 Stanley Cup winners from 1990 through 2025, 34 teams had at least 10 players score 12 or more goals in the regular season. Q5: Of the last 35 cup winners how many teams were in the top 5 of the NHL in goals scored? A: 18 of the last 35 Cup winners were top-five teams in goals scored. The odds are better, if imperfect, that if you have a player who produced 90+ points in a season, you are more likely than not to win a Cup. Of those teams 16 that lacked a 90+ point producer, half of them had two guys above 80 points. The odds are also better when you can role out 3 lines of scoring with at least 10 guys producing 12 or more goals and 30 or more points. The Wings had only 8 players reached 12 or more goals and only 9 players reach 30 or more points. For us, I ask this question. Where are we going to get a 90+ point guy without tanking or who are going to be are two 80+ point guys? Where is the scoring depth going to come from based on the current roster and farm system? We need obvious scoring depth. If it isn't coming from within, do you trust this front office, GM and scouts, to make the proper evaluations and free agent signings/trades to add the scoring necessary to get us to the SCF and bring us a Cup? they had a shot at two 80 pt players on a line together if they had put a good skating power type player next to Larkin and Raymond in any of the last 5 yrs, but the Wings have elected to leave the two of them out there to get out muscled without a power player to help - maybe Kasper could become that guy but he isn't yet and now it's too late for Larkin.. Team construction matters - you don't win by just throwing players out there at random. Edited June 17 by gehringer_2 Quote
Jason_R Posted June 17 Posted June 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, slothfacekilla said: …the Hurricanes just won with their leading scorers at 80, 71 and 70 points compared to the Wings' 85, 76 and 67. This is the key point. Carolina has become one of the NHL’s model franchises due to their complete organizational commitment to analytics. They have figured out a way to be competitive and even to win the top prize without McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, etc. Stevie should have been competing in this space long ago and Chris Ilitch should have been demanding it. Hopefully Carolina’s win helps push Detroit down this path. Edited June 17 by Jason_R Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 17 Posted June 17 29 minutes ago, Jason_R said: This is the key point. Carolina has become one of the NHL’s model franchises due to their complete organizational commitment to analytics. They have figured out a way to be competitive and even to win the top prize without McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, etc. Stevie should have been competing in this space long ago and Chris Ilitch should have been demanding it. Hopefully Carolina’s win helps push Detroit down this path. If Yzerman had seen the light on this kind of stuff to be in place for next season there should have been hiring announcements by now so I wouldn't bank on it. Quote
buddha Posted June 17 Posted June 17 56 minutes ago, Jason_R said: This is the key point. Carolina has become one of the NHL’s model franchises due to their complete organizational commitment to analytics. They have figured out a way to be competitive and even to win the top prize without McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, etc. Stevie should have been competing in this space long ago and Chris Ilitch should have been demanding it. Hopefully Carolina’s win helps push Detroit down this path. Detroitcity guide then why are you still wedded to yzerman? 1 Quote
Jason_R Posted June 18 Posted June 18 3 hours ago, buddha said: then why are you still wedded to yzerman? I’m not wedded to him. I’ve said he inherited one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. I’ve said his timeline is not the fans’ timeline (which is unrealistic), and that only his status as a team legend has allowed him enough time to rebuild a barren roster through the draft. It needed to be done and there were no shortcuts. I agree with you and others who are concerned about the lack of success outside the first round. I disagreed with you and others who were preparing for another March swoon. I was wrong about that. When it happened again it seemed likely there was something wrong with the culture. Larkin’s trade demand made that clear. Nobody on the outside knows what is wrong with the culture. With Larkin as good as gone, though, the spotlight is on Stevie. It is all his now to own and to fix. I’ve long assumed that his rebuild timeline coincided with the end of the CCR contracts in 27/28. I still assume this. But the clock is still ticking on Yzerman and it is getting pretty loud, as it should. Quote
buddha Posted June 18 Posted June 18 30 minutes ago, Jason_R said: I’m not wedded to him. I’ve said he inherited one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. I’ve said his timeline is not the fans’ timeline (which is unrealistic), and that only his status as a team legend has allowed him enough time to rebuild a barren roster through the draft. It needed to be done and there were no shortcuts. I agree with you and others who are concerned about the lack of success outside the first round. I disagreed with you and others who were preparing for another March swoon. I was wrong about that. When it happened again it seemed likely there was something wrong with the culture. Larkin’s trade demand made that clear. Nobody on the outside knows what is wrong with the culture. With Larkin as good as gone, though, the spotlight is on Stevie. It is all his now to own and to fix. I’ve long assumed that his rebuild timeline coincided with the end of the CCR contracts in 27/28. I still assume this. But the clock is still ticking on Yzerman and it is getting pretty loud, as it should. ok, but you are pretty boisterous in defending him and everyone else associated with the front office. he's been in charge now foe 7 years. he could have invested in an analytics department. apparently, he hasnt. perhaps that's a sign the wings need new leadership? Quote
Jason_R Posted June 18 Posted June 18 9 hours ago, buddha said: ok, but you are pretty boisterous in defending him and everyone else associated with the front office. he's been in charge now foe 7 years. he could have invested in an analytics department. apparently, he hasnt. perhaps that's a sign the wings need new leadership? maybe you and tater should write a strongly worded letter to Chris Ilitch and threaten to boycott the team until Stevie gets fired. Quote
oblong Posted June 18 Posted June 18 FWIW, Little Caesar's has always been on the cutting edge of tech and analytics... so if the Wings are not moving in that direction fast enough, or if at all, that's on the hockey operations, not because of Chris directly. Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted June 18 Posted June 18 3 hours ago, Jason_R said: maybe you and tater should write a strongly worded letter to Chris Ilitch and threaten to boycott the team until Stevie gets fired. I've said several times here I'm not quite ready to fire Yzerman. I also don't think he's ever getting fired. He'll be the new Jim Devellano and get moved upstairs before he's ever fired. That said, changes have to be made somewhere in the front office. Analytics, scouting, etc. Teams like Montreal started later than us in their rebuild process and are on a better track than we are. Hell, Jarmo in Buffalo managed to turn things around quicker and he built off the failed rebuilds of three prior GMs going back to the 2010s. Both of those teams managed to make the playoffs and have success winning series. At this rate, given how poor the rebuild has gone, San Jose may be a playoff team before us. Quote
buddha Posted June 18 Posted June 18 45 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I've said several times here I'm not quite ready to fire Yzerman. I also don't think he's ever getting fired. He'll be the new Jim Devellano and get moved upstairs before he's ever fired. That said, changes have to be made somewhere in the front office. Analytics, scouting, etc. Teams like Montreal started later than us in their rebuild process and are on a better track than we are. Hell, Jarmo in Buffalo managed to turn things around quicker and he built off the failed rebuilds of three prior GMs going back to the 2010s. Both of those teams managed to make the playoffs and have success winning series. At this rate, given how poor the rebuild has gone, San Jose may be a playoff team before us. san jose will definitely be a playoff team before us. yzerman chose not to go scorched earth to get top 5 picks. he chose to keep larkin. he chose to overpay for "veterans". he chose to take "good 200 foot players with questionable upside" in many high draft slots. it didnt work. the market changed thanks to salary cap increases. they got no lottery luck. they had key injuries. he had little (but not nothing) to work with when he got here. all that is true and it didnt help. but ultimately he's judged on results and the results havent been good enough and the wings have been passed by their rebuilding peers. larkin asking out is a blessing in disguise. now they can re-center the team around seider. in principle that's great. in practice, im wary of whether yzerman's current staff is capable of building the talent base to complement him. the drafting hasnt been good at all. so we'll see, cause yzerman isnt going anywhere. and if he did go, illitch's lazy ass would just promote draper. Quote
Jason_R Posted June 18 Posted June 18 3 hours ago, oblong said: FWIW, Little Caesar's has always been on the cutting edge of tech and analytics... so if the Wings are not moving in that direction fast enough, or if at all, that's on the hockey operations, not because of Chris directly. I don’t know how any of these things go behind the scenes, but we had the great highs from the Wings and to a lesser degree the Tigers due to Mike Ilitch. We are now living through the hangovers. It is frustrating, but very few teams had a kind of high like the Red Wings dynasty did. it seems like the tigers have made a significant commitment to bolstering their analytics operation. This has had mixed results, but the franchise is generally moving in the right direction. I don’t see anything obvious along these lines for the Wings. it seems likely that Chris would write the checks for this if asked. But obviously none of us knows what goes on behind the scenes. Anyway, the bet with Stevie is not that he has a magic wand, but that he is competitive and accountable enough to do whatever it takes to win, even changing his game in a fundamental way. Seems like he needs to do this now. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 18 Posted June 18 2 hours ago, buddha said: larkin asking out is a blessing in disguise. now they can re-center the team around seider. in principle that's great. in practice, im wary of whether yzerman's current staff is capable of building the talent base to complement him. the drafting hasnt been good at all. so we'll see, cause yzerman isnt going anywhere. and if he did go, illitch's lazy ass would just promote draper. this. Really, the only question is will Yzerman recognize this as the opportunity for a reset or just hunker down and say "well all we can to is just keep grinding out the plan despite more bad luck" Quote
buddha Posted June 27 Posted June 27 https://open.substack.com/pub/prashanthiyer/p/if-i-were-steve-yzerman-2026-edition-ddd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=7ecc7 "Importantly, in order for a franchise to successfully move forward, they need to accumulate enough draft capital to allow them to secure the necessary franchise cornerstones. As we mentioned in Part 1, the Wings are still missing that franchise forward. My proposal is by moving Larkin for a top 1C prospect, bottoming out the roster for a top 2027 pick in a loaded forward draft, and potentially accumulating as many as three additional 2027 1st round picks from the Larkin, Gibson, and Faulk trades, I have created multiple “shots on goal” for the Wings to land that missing cornerstone. This is fundamentally different than the 2018-2022 rebuild. The Wings significant whiffs in the 2017 and 2018 drafts left the Wings with a barren prospect pool. Filip Hronek didn’t become a franchise defenseman and Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Anthony Mantha didn’t become franchise forwards. Not only did the Wings have to sell off aggressively - they had to find multiple franchise cornerstones. This time around - the Wings have a franchise defenseman in Moritz Seider. They have a very strong forward in Lucas Raymond who still has franchise forward potential. They have Simon Edvinsson who is a clear top-four defenseman, and they have a plethora of players that project to play in the middle-six such as JP Hurlbert, Marco Kasper, Carter Bear, Max Plante, Eddie Genborg in addition to the aforementioned Danielson, Mazur, Brandsegg-Nygård. They have an elite goaltending prospect in Trey Augustine." Quote
gehringer_2 Posted June 27 Posted June 27 (edited) 2 hours ago, buddha said: https://open.substack.com/pub/prashanthiyer/p/if-i-were-steve-yzerman-2026-edition-ddd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=7ecc7 "Importantly, in order for a franchise to successfully move forward,... Yzerman has declined to do anything bold. Wings fans will remain in purgatory. And even if he eventually changes his mind and tries, he's lost a year. Edited June 27 by gehringer_2 Quote
sagnam Posted June 27 Posted June 27 Let’s just roll 4 lines of middle-six and see what happens. Quote
Shinzaki Posted June 30 Posted June 30 Wouldn't mind them bringing in UFA LHD Logan Stanley...big guy with a bit of physicality Quote
slothfacekilla Posted June 30 Posted June 30 While I wouldn't mind getting bigger/tougher I'd rather bring in a guy who can actually play too personally. Stanley stinks! 1 Quote
Shinzaki Posted June 30 Posted June 30 1 hour ago, slothfacekilla said: While I wouldn't mind getting bigger/tougher I'd rather bring in a guy who can actually play too personally. Stanley stinks! Perfect Red Wing bottom pair defender Quote
slothfacekilla Posted June 30 Posted June 30 29 minutes ago, Shinzaki said: Perfect Red Wing bottom pair defender If we're tanking, I agree Quote
1984Echoes Posted June 30 Author Posted June 30 1 hour ago, Shinzaki said: Perfect Red Wing bottom pair defender We already have Chiarot for that. 1 Quote
Shinzaki Posted June 30 Posted June 30 37 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: We already have Chiarot for that. Good one...he's about as physical as ASP Quote
lordstanley Posted June 30 Posted June 30 3 hours ago, slothfacekilla said: Stanley stinks! I feel personally attacked! 🙂 2 Quote
Jason_R Posted June 30 Posted June 30 Not exactly sure the methodology here, and it seems a bit harsh on young players, but… at least we hit on two! 1 Quote
slothfacekilla Posted July 1 Posted July 1 Whatever methodology he's using, it aint good I can tell you that. Includes picks from the last front office too. Dude just plugs in his spreadsheets and takes it as gospel no matter what. Quote
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