2026 Congressional Elections

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

more likely than not this is coming

Something may well come.... but people kinda assume the "something", whatever it might be, will end up working. But if people are paying out the ass on gasoline and people are as angry and upset at Donald Trump as they are, particularly in a state like Maine that leans blue, it may not work at all.

Expect the unexpected, folks.

Edited 3 hours ago by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Normie Dems won big in New Jersey and Virginia. It is not the political environment we are in. A bunch of New England Dems, who are mostly old, decided this caricature is what will save the party. 

Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill are both much different candidates than Janet Mills.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill are both much different candidates than Janet Mills.

Besides age, how so?

[mtutiger]

It's crazy that in this thread there's so much attention spent on Platner and Maine voters being idiots, but very little spent discussing the campaign that Mills ran (and how terrible it was from all accounts).

Even setting aside the age thing, she transparently didn't seem invested in the race to the degree that she needed to be. And as a result, she didn't afford the voters much of a choice. Again, saying this as someone who doesn't particularly like Platner and frankly find myself distrustful of the guy, but the situation is just not all that surprising given the circumstances. Hard for me to get worked up about it.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Besides age, how so?

First off, you say "besides age" as if age isn't a big deal, particularly at this moment in time for the Democratic Party. It is a huge deal for voters, particularly after Biden was forced to drop out in 2024, after RBG hung on too long to her seat, after watching four D representatives keel over in the past year and a half in a very divided house.

But even setting aside the age thing, Spanberger and Sherrill both ran races that were effective to winning support over to their side in the primaries and both were clearly up the challenge of the jobs they were running. Mills, with the campaign she ran, didn't demonstrate any of these things.

Voters are sending a message here, whether you and I like it or not. Hope the party establishment learns going forward.... to be fair, they have had some recruiting successes this time around landing Cooper, Peltola, getting Brown to run again, etc., but this was a pretty clear miss on their part.

Edited 3 hours ago by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

First off, you say "besides age" as if age isn't a big deal, particularly at this moment in time for the Democratic Party. It is a huge deal for voters, particularly after Biden was forced to drop out in 2024, after RBG hung on too long to her seat, after watching four D representatives keel over in the past year and a half in a very divided house.

But even setting aside the age thing, Spanberger and Sherrill both ran races that were effective to winning support over to their side in the primaries and both were clearly up the challenge of the jobs they were running. Mills, with the campaign she ran, didn't demonstrate any of these things.

Voters are sending a message here, whether you and I like it or not. Hope the party establishment learns going forward.... to be fair, they have had some recruiting successes this time around landing Cooper, Peltola, getting Brown to run again, etc., but this was a pretty clear miss on their part.

Voters didn’t send any message. There hasn’t been an election in Maine. Platner hasn’t won. In 2024, when Biden was forced out, Maine elected 80 year old Angus King. Platner could run for governor and he could choose who replaces Mills if she died. Republicans aren’t attacking Susan Collins for being too old. The only difference between Mills and Sherril or Spanberger is age. Democrats have fully given into the Republican ageism. 

[Motown Bombers]

The original comparison I was making was Spanberger and Sherril to Platner. Platner is supposed to be the new environment but Normie Dems won big. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Motown Bombers

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Voters didn’t send any message. There hasn’t been an election in Maine. Platner hasn’t won.

If Mills thought she could win, why did she drop out?

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, mtutiger said:

If Mills thought she could win, why did she drop out?

She ran out of money. She probably wasn’t going to win but voters haven’t decided anything yet. 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

She ran out of money. 

Right. But if there were a greater demand for what she was selling, she probably would have had no troubles raising the money necessary to be competitive to Platner in the primary. But the polls of Mainers continually painted a different story...

This is sort of the problem to me... I understand the skepticism of Platner given what we know about the guy. But the qualitative and quantitative evidence suggests that she was never going to be a competitive candidate to Platner, even with his flaws. It was a miss on recruitment by the establishment here, it is what it is.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Right. But if there were a greater demand for what she was selling, she probably would have had no troubles raising the money necessary to be competitive to Platner in the primary. But the polls of Mainers continually painted a different story...

This is sort of the problem to me... I understand the skepticism of Platner given what we know about the guy. But the qualitative and quantitative evidence suggests that she was never going to be a competitive candidate to Platner, even with his flaws. It was a miss on recruitment by the establishment here, it is what it is.

She received more donations from Mainers than Platner. Platner is getting bankrolled from out of state. Polls in Maine are also notoriously unreliable. Just ask Maine senator Sara Gideon. 

[Motown Bombers]

BTW what is even “establishment”? Is establishment being in congress for 35 years never having actually held any sort of job in the private sector? 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Maine just elected 80 year old Angus King

that may be for a lot of reasons, but I would argue that the idea that older adults like old candidates because they are old, which seems to have been what you were arguing, is false or at least pretty weakly true. If anything older adults have the same skepticism about an old candidate as anyone else would, and look for the same kinds of evidence pro or con about a candidate's capacity as anyone else, and may actually have a sharper eye for recognition of signs of deficits. 

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Democrats ran a middle aged, centrist, milquetoast white woman in Sara Gideon against Susan Collins in 2020. Not only did she lose, she lost by nearly 8% points. She lost at a time when Biden won the state and she underperformed Biden. She lost when everyone was predicting she would win. She lost when polling predicted she would win. Graham Platner is problematic in a lot of ways. The Nazi tattoo and the reddit comments about rape are indeed a problem. They will be used as attacks by the Republicans on him. But it isn't like running a middle aged, milquetoast, centrist, white woman worked last time. Sara Gideon lost. She's not the Senator. So I don't know that running a 70+ year old centrist, milquetoast white woman would work either. The polling certainly seems to indicate it won't.

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

that may be for a lot of reasons, but I would argue that the idea that older adults like old candidates because they are old, which seems to have been what you were arguing, is false or at least pretty weakly true. If anything older adults have the same skepticism about an old candidate as anyone else would, and look for the same kinds of evidence pro or con about a candidate's capacity as anyone else, and may actually have a sharper eye for recognition of signs of deficits. 

 

Maine is an old population that elects old people. Not sure what to tell you. There’s no evidence they prefer younger candidates judging by their federal delegation and governor. 

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Democrats ran a middle aged, centrist, milquetoast white woman in Sara Gideon against Susan Collins in 2020. Not only did she lose, she lost by nearly 8% points. She lost at a time when Biden won the state and she underperformed Biden. She lost when everyone was predicting she would win. She lost when polling predicted she would win. Graham Platner is problematic in a lot of ways. The Nazi tattoo and the reddit comments about rape are indeed a problem. They will be used as attacks by the Republicans on him. But it isn't like running a middle aged, milquetoast, centrist, white woman worked last time. Sara Gideon lost. She's not the Senator. So I don't know that running a 70+ year old centrist, milquetoast white woman would work either. The polling certainly seems to indicate it won't.

Well as you said, in that same election, Maine elected a 78 year old milquetoast president and followed that up by electing an 80 year old milquetoast senator. Maybe, using your logic, they should have ran an older candidate. 

[Motown Bombers]

Democrats need to put their money where their mouth is at. Markey needs to drop out. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren need to announce they aren’t going to run for reelection. Enough of this selective ageism. 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Maine is an old population that elects old people. Not sure what to tell you. There’s no evidence they prefer younger candidates judging by their federal delegation and governor. 

so... then if they love old candidates what was wrong with Mills that no-one was stepping up to support her financially? It doesn't take a fortune to run in Maine. A candidate that was attracting support and had a functional internet fund-raising link should not have had to drop out for lack of funds. Candidates in the last few cycles have proved over and over again that you don't the party to raise money if you are attracting supporters - and Mills supposedly had Schumer's support - so why was she broke?

That's actually the part in this that to me doesn't add up. If Mills was the establishment/party candidate, how is she broke? Did the party and establishment donors cut her off? If so, why? Did they already sense she was a lost cause?  Is she not really broke but using that as an excuse to get out of a campaign she decided she didn't want to be in? Pretty odd all the way around.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

so... then if they love old candidates what was wrong with Mills that no-one was stepping up to support her financially? It doesn't take a fortune to run in Maine. A candidate that was attracting support and had a functional internet fund-raising link should not have had to drop out for lack of funds. Candidates in the last few cycles have proved over and over again that you don't the party to raise money if you are attracting supporters - and Mills supposedly had Schumer's support - so why was she broke?

That's actually the part in this that to me doesn't add up. If Mills was the establishment/party candidate, how is she broke? Did the party and establishment donors cut her off? If so, why? Did they already sense she was a lost cause?  Is she not really broke but using that as an excuse to get out of a campaign she decided she didn't want to be in? Pretty odd all the way around.

She wasn’t getting the outside funding like Platner. She actually got more donations from Mainers. It does cost a fortune in Maine actually because republicans are going to drop $50-60 million into the race. It’s probably going to be one of the more expensive races in the countries because Collins is the most vulnerable republican. 

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She wasn’t getting the outside funding like Platner. She actually got more donations from Mainers. It does cost a fortune in Maine actually because republicans are going to drop $50-60 million into the race. It’s probably going to be one of the more expensive races in the countries because Collins is the most vulnerable republican. 

Once you get to a certain point, all more money gets you is more TV, but TV has a too many competitors today to be the whole game, so in this era the money effect goes flatline at a certain point. Musk has found that out in a few races he dropped big $$$ into.