The fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran

[gehringer_2]

25 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Here I am a woke ****lib with my solar and EV not needing gasoline. 

That's one of the ironies. Trumps idiocy is going to do more than speed the adoption of non-hydrocarbon fuels both here and around the world than any monkey wrench he has thrown in attempting to prevent it.

Whatever fever dreams Trump and Hegseth had been imagining, in reality, what they have accomplished so far would be the following:

• brought a leadership into power in Iran that is more radicalized than ever
• Left the Iranian people with a worse government and worse economic prospects than they had before. And poorer people do not make better revolutions.
• increased the risk to US citizens around the world to terrorism
• vastly weakened the US ability to deter China from attacking Taiwan
• Slammed his base in the Red US agricultural states again with dramatic increases in the price of fuel and fertilizer.
• Vastly increased Russia's oil income and thus its potential for mischief.
• Destroyed whatever semblance remained of a Western security alliance.
• Guaranteed that every rogue (and for that matter) non-rogue regime redoubles efforts to get into the nuclear club before Trump decides to start another war - this should do wonders for the Pakistani and possibly N. Korean balance of trade as customers line their pockets for nuclear tech.

What do we learn, Palmer?

 

Edited Sunday at 04:36 PM by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

... What do we learn, Palmer? 

That Drumpf and his braindead administration (everyone he has brought in) AND his MAGAt followers...

ABSOLUTELY REEK, of...

ABJECT STUPIDITY.

[1984Echoes]

Sorry, but that needed to be bolded, all-CAPPED, and made just a wee, tiny bit larger...

To make certain his braindead followers and administration could READ it.

Naziholic?

[guy incognito]

[Motown Bombers]

5 hours ago, guy incognito said:

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

"At this point it’s hard to believe the President isn’t just trying to manipulate markets out of desperation."

You don't say?

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

The Persian Gulf is only 100 miles wide over most of its length. You can't make the Gulf safe for shipping just by controlling the Strait, you have to defend it across the whole South Eastern coast of Iran.

Edited 13 hours ago by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

 

[ewsieg]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The Persian Gulf is only 100 miles wide over most of its length. You can't make the Gulf safe for shipping just by controlling the Strait, you have to defend it across the whole South Eastern coast of Iran.

I hope someone is telling Hegseth and Trump this and aren't being pushed out of the room.  The Strait is a perfect spot for Iran to focus on, but everything in that Strait is a possible target.  Without a doubt i'm confident the US could control all of it if they wanted too and likely make it secure enough to get ships insured and trafficking it, but the cost....holy cow the cost.  

There is a part of me that hopes there are some backdoor discussions with maybe India or some other Middle Eastern states Iran is willing to talk to on our behalf.  In fact I do suspect China and India are talking with Iran to see if there is an arrangement that can be made and will get the US involved when they feel it's appropriate.

China and India probably aren't excited to help us out, but Trump screwed this up so bad it's affecting them too and it's sad we need to look to them to help solve this for us.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

China and India

they have very vital interest though because East Asia is where the majority of Persian Gulf exports go. 

I'm a lot less confident the US could sanitize the entire gulf from Shaheeds. Iran has tens of thousands of sq miles of territory they can launch drones from that can range the gulf in minutes. It would be an exhausting task for a navy that is already seriously over extended. The Bush has already had its tour extended from the normal 6mo out to a year. They are at a point where both human and machine fatigue are at their breaking point - as evidenced by the ridiculous 30 hr laundry fire. Never would have happened if the ship had be been back for maintenance on schedule. 

And that doesn't even count that there are several hundred miles of coastline from which Iran can simply float mines out into the Gulf.  How are you going to control that without 5-6 figure commitment of boots on the ground? Who would then be sitting ducks for Iranian attack, trapped between the highlands and the sea. There is a reason that in 40 yrs no American government has been stupid enough to attack Iran outright. These strategic realities have always been known, but the Idiot and the Drunkard  just decided they knew better.

Edited 2 hours ago by gehringer_2