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Posted

not surprised at all that Spanberger won, but an easy 10+ win, with a clean sweep with both LT Gov and AG, and a super majority in the House of Delegates, and every county moving Blue - that's an ass kicking.

Looks like the entire county has one message: F*** Off MAGA!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Ultra low tunout, but the D candidates in the Public Commissioner Races in Georgia are likely to win their races by double digits... which is wild for a place like Georgia lol

If the dems start winning races, that will be a big part of the why. The MAGA voter that finally gets burned out on the whole Trump circus is going to become a non-voter.

Edited by gehringer_2
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The usual caveats on extrapolating aside, a world of double digit shifts away in urban/suburban areas coupled with 4-8 point shifts in rural GOP counties would make for a really really bad night if it happens in 2026.... no amount of gerrymandering would prevent huge losses.

the thing about gerrymandering is that it can be a double edged sword if the electorate starts to move. You maximize your seats by concentrating the other sides voters as much as possible, but also by contructing districts which you think you can win narrowly but consistently. If a major shift does occur, your losses are going to be greater.

Edited by gehringer_2
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Posted
1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

I'm wondering how much an effect the attack ads from the Republican Party had in these races. Especially at the state House of Delegate level. At least in my neck of the woods the two main races (Governor and House of Delegates; The Republican office holder and Winsome-Sears ran a very negative campaign that might turned off many voters who were on the fence.

I'm sure it was a factor insofar that (at least has been reported, I don't live in VA) they seemed overly focused on the culture war stuff too. 

Feel like we spent a lot of time making this point to a couple of folks after the election (ie. Holic, 1776), but largely 2024 wasn't about trans or woke or whatever... or even immigration to an extent.... it was about the economy. And Americans see what is going on (all the culture war, all the lawbreaking, all the state violence, all the dysfunction) and see that the administration is not only doing ****-all to deal with voters' concerns about the economy, they are even pursuing policies that are causing harm to the economy (ie. tariffs). 

You see it beyond Virginia tonight, in New Jersey and other states.... people don't feel like their concerns are being addressed and they are taking it out on GOP candidates.

Posted
20 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the thing about gerrymandering is that it can be a double edged sword if the electorate starts to move. You maximize your seats by concentrating the other sides voters as much as possible, but also by contructing districts which you think you can win narrowly but consistently. If a major shift does occur, your losses are going to be greater.

Exactly right... and lawmakers in these states are being asked to make sacrifices out of their districts to make it work. 

After tonight, don't be surprised if a couple of states back off their plans a bit. Kansas has already come out and said they are going to scrap their plan to try.

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