Cleanup in Aisle Lunatic (h/t romad1)

[mtutiger]

21 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

With light rain falling in the region….

That's a good sign.... would love to see numbers from Norfolk

[CMRivdogs]

This is the end of the state I grew up in….very red..

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

This is the end of the state I grew up in….very red..

close election

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

Pat Robertson territory 

 

[mtutiger]

This is probably the best news I've seen all day. 85% of 2017 total vote

Edited November 2, 2021 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

With Richmond and Newport News punching their weight, I think we've seen enough turnout wise to conclude that Youngkin's path to victory probably involves more persuasion than differential turnout. 

Definitely not impossible! But probably makes the job somewhat more difficult

[Motown Bombers]

I'm too invested in an election in a state I don't live in. 

[CMRivdogs]

99.9% voting because of CRT cannot tell you what it means. Also Critical Race Theory is not taught in Virginia. Never has

 

[CMRivdogs]

This is what happens when you allow early voting, no excuse absentee ballots. You open it up to more people getting involved. Rather than the Trumpublican way of suppressing voters.

 

[mtutiger]

Yep.

High turnout doesn't guarantee anything for either side at this point... but it probably makes it safe to assume the Fox poll is gonna look bad by the end of the night.

[romad1]

Not good.  Sorry to deviate from Election scoreboard anticipation.

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Tigeraholic1]

Are mail in ballots at play? Late night dump?

[mtutiger]

This is a fair point.... but the last part is key. Differential turnout making up the difference in a state Biden won by almost 11% would require a bigger difference that doesn't appear to be happening in a lot of blue places. 

It comes down to the persuasion piece.... did Youngkin persuade enough people to cross over? We'll have to see.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Are mail in ballots at play? Late night dump?

I believe I read that Virginia updated their laws to allow for pre-processing of absentee ballots, so they may be the first ballots we see tonight

[Motown Bombers]

In 2017, Northam won by nearly 9 points so there is some buffer. The key is Democrats aren't getting blown out in turnout so far. 

[mtutiger]

17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

In 2017, Northam won by nearly 9 points so there is some buffer. The key is Democrats aren't getting blown out in turnout so far. 

The difficult part of Wasserman's math as well is that an increase in turnout in a larger county with over 1M is going to mean significantly more votes than it would a county of about 80k (like Rockingham). So, for instance, if Fairfax County is at 106% of 2017 and Rockingham at 117, without doing the math, that still means Fairfax is turning out more raw votes over the last election than Rockingham is.

The question is whether the same pattern in Rockingham holds in other deep red counties in Virginia,  and that we really won't know until they count the votes. I suspect he thinks that's the case, there's reason to believe that could be the case, but still. We don't know.

Edited November 2, 2021 by mtutiger

[CMRivdogs]

 

[Motown Bombers]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The difficult part of Wasserman's math as well is that an increase in turnout in a larger county with over 1M is going to mean significantly more votes than it would a county of about 80k (like Rockingham). So, for instance, if Fairfax County is at 106% of 2017 and Rockingham at 117, without doing the math, that still means Fairfax is turning out more raw votes over the last election than Rockingham is.

The question is whether the same pattern in Rockingham holds in other deep red counties in Virginia,  and that we really won't know until they count the votes. I suspect he thinks that's the case, there's reason to believe that could be the case, but still. We don't know.

It seems like a lot of people are framing this race as both candidates starting from an even position. Virginia shades to the left. Turnout has been strong in Democratic areas so it doesn't look like Youngkin will make up that ground on turnout alone. Can he convince enough Never Trumpers? If he does, that movement is dead to me. 

[pfife]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Not good.  Sorry to deviate from Election scoreboard anticipation.

 

Old Enough to remember Alito rudely interrupting Obama's SOTU to claim this wouldn't happen.   Good faith jurist that he is....

This news really sucks.

Edited November 2, 2021 by pfife

[chasfh]

46 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Low-hanging fruit prediction: Republicans will lean into this 102% number as de facto evidence of voter fraud.

Never mind what it actually means.

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Low-hanging fruit prediction: Republicans will lean into this 102% number as de facto evidence of voter fraud.

Never mind what it actually means.

I hope they do considering smaller Republican counties are showing 120% of 2017 turnout. 

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I hope they do considering smaller Republican counties are showing 120% of 2017 turnout. 

They would never learn of that.

[mtutiger]

This is the other pitfall of Wasserman's point.... there are some very large in population, Biden-voting counties that are also in the 110s of turnout right now.