mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: Not a good sign… I have a feeling a lot of folks have been hoodwinked by the wolf in fleece vest I'm assuming both of these people voted for Gillespie on 2017, tho... Edited November 2, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 (edited) Regardless of what happens, this is a fascinating contest... I'm not sure I've been as unsure of an outcome. My gut says Youngkin, but i almost think the shift in conventional wisdom may be underrated TMac some as well. I'm guessing it'll be close. Edited November 2, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Regardless of what happens, this is a fascinating contest... I'm not sure I've been as unsure of an outcome. My gut says Youngkin, but i almost think the shift in conventional wisdom may be underrated TMac some as well. I'm guessing it'll be close. Nova is a big vote block. I would almost guarantee that the votes for Nova come in very late too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 T Mac has a couple of things going against him besides the obvious. 1) Only one former Governor has returned to win an election the second time. Mills Godwin won in 1974 after serving from 1966-1970. He was the last of the Old Byrd Machine. Won the second time as Republican. 2) The state has a propensity of voting for the party out of power in DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Just now, romad1 said: Nova is a big vote block. I would almost guarantee that the votes for Nova come in very late too. NoVa is getting a ton of oxygen on Twitter this am (turnout appears to be good for TMac all things considered), but that's only one part of the equation... he still needs to get turnout from key constituencies in Richmond, Petersburg, the college towns, Hampton Roads, etc. Haven't seen much there. Setting aside the possibility of some erosion in NoVa (we'll see - wouldnt be surprised if its somewhat overstated), hard to feel too good about TMac's chances without knowing much about turnout in other areas he needs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, mtutiger said: NoVa is getting a ton of oxygen on Twitter this am (turnout appears to be good for TMac all things considered), but that's only one part of the equation... he still needs to get turnout from key constituencies in Richmond, Petersburg, the college towns, Hampton Roads, etc. Haven't seen much there. Setting aside the possibility of some erosion in NoVa (we'll see - wouldnt be surprised if its somewhat overstated), hard to feel too good about TMac's chances without knowing much about turnout in other areas he needs. Its raining here. Cold and nasty rain. I don't think that is as bad as it might be since they actually have modern voting precincts here and don't require colored folks to stand in long lines. Again, the one factor that might weigh a lot is the Roe vs Wade thing. Ireland had millions of women fly back from overseas to vote in that election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: T Mac has a couple of things going against him besides the obvious. 1) Only one former Governor has returned to win an election the second time. Mills Godwin won in 1974 after serving from 1966-1970. He was the last of the Old Byrd Machine. Won the second time as Republican. 2) The state has a propensity of voting for the party out of power in DC. This race is a real test of the "old fundamentals" versus the "new fundamentals", for sure. The history is what it is, and it works against McAuliffe, versus the fact that Virginia has evolved a lot since the last time a Republican won the Governorship in 2009.... The result tonight is going to bad for Ds regardless in terms of holding the House in 2022, but in terms of VA, If TMac pulls it out, in this environment, with a campaign that by all accounts wasn't the greatest, one has to think its another sign that Virginia is probably Blue Ohio at this point. Edited November 2, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: This race is a real test of the "old fundamentals" versus the "new fundamentals", for sure. The history is what it is, and it works against McAuliffe, versus the fact that Virginia has evolved a lot since the last time a Republican won the Governorship in 2009.... If TMac pulls it out, in this environment, with a campaign that by all accounts wasn't the greatest, one has to think its another sign that Virginia is probably going the way Ohio is for the GOP. I would say it would surprise me if this was a blowout for T-Mac or Trumpkin I expect this to be a nail biter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 This election is reminiscent of 1989. Doug Wilder vs Marshall Coleman. Wilder pulled it off by about 6 thousand plus votes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Maybe we were a little premature to think Virginia broke away from its confederacy roots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, mtutiger said: The result tonight is going to bad for Ds regardless in terms of holding the House in 2022, but in terms of VA, If TMac pulls it out, in this environment, with a campaign that by all accounts wasn't the greatest, one has to think its another sign that Virginia is probably Blue Ohio at this point. The Va House of Delegates could quite possibly change hands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: The Va House of Delegates could quite possibly change hands Sure, but is it considered likely that TMac will do better than Delegate candidates? Edited November 2, 2021 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 There's one place where turnout needs to be good.... still would be better to know what kinda turnout is coming from Richmond/Hampton Roads/SW Virginia, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Maybe we were a little premature to think Virginia broke away from its confederacy roots. Indian doctor living in Loudon County wonders who is this Lee General? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 With light rain falling in the region…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Speaking of light rain, if Youngkin wins, he'll make it illegal to pass out umbrellas or ponchos to voters waiting in line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 all we had on our ballot today were city charter amendments. The joke is that they increase the authority of the city Managers, who are regularly fired by the City Council when they get caught between competing priorities of the mayor vs the council. It's really silly. We really just need to upgrade the Mayor's job and do away with the city admin, but we nurse this myth we are somehow above having normal mayoral politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 No election going on here. My councilman was arrested yet again and I cannot find where to sign the recall petition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Meanwhile in Texas... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 I didn't pay much attention to the VA gov race until I saw you guys talking about it. TMac doesn't seem to be a very likeable guy and doesn't have much to offer. No wonder Biden campaigned for him. Two peas in a pod. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 8 hours ago, romad1 said: Just voted in Virginia. Romad has voted a straight D ticket on successive elections now. Bizonkers. I'm not the crazy one though. I wouldn't call it crazy either. I can think of a few other words that would fit better 😁😁😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: all we had on our ballot today were city charter amendments. The joke is that they increase the authority of the city Managers, who are regularly fired by the City Council when they get caught between competing priorities of the mayor vs the council. It's really silly. We really just need to upgrade the Mayor's job and do away with the city admin, but we nurse this myth we are somehow above having normal mayoral politics. We had a couple of bonds and a bunch of Amendments to the Texas Constitution. I arrived at my precinct about 30 minutes after polls opened and was only the 9th person to vote.... these off-year elections are small affairs lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Archie said: I didn't pay much attention to the VA gov race until I saw you guys talking about it. TMac doesn't seem to be a very likeable guy and doesn't have much to offer. No wonder Biden campaigned for him. Two peas in a pod. Trump endorsed Youngkin something like 8 times, but Youngkin was afraid of appearing with Trump (by video) and his surrogate’s (Bannon et all) at their rallies. A sheep in fleece vests… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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