09/12/2022 6:40 EDT Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

[buddha]

16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I hypothesize that if the rate of home runs and strikeouts increase, it will increase the amount of prop betting on home runs and strikeouts, and I ... ahem ... bet that Baseball hypothesizes the same.

i bet that you massively overrate the influence of prop betting in what they do to the ball.

did they increase the size of the bases because they knew there would be more prop betting on the number of stolen bases in an inning?

whatever they do to the game there will be bets and "prop bets" and in game bets.  the decisions on what to do with the ball have nothing to do with current prop bets.  

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I’m not so sure the ball is going to continue to be deadened in its current state. Baseball just doubled down on pull-happy sluggers because prop bettors dig the long ball. Also, the strikeout. So whatever they can to that encourages more of that, that’s what I myself would expect to see.

I hope they don't change it again.  They need to pick a specification and stick with it.

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I don’t know whether moving in the fences, particularly in left, will address the dearth-of-dingers problem since for the last five seasons, the 3-year-rolling HR park factor is higher for RHH than for LHH. That might suggest a different problem at hand than our particular outfield configuration.

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

If we examine park factors on the Savant site, we can see that Comerica played better than average for HR hitters for eight of the eleven seasons from 2007-2017, then cratered after that. The only changes to the ballpark since 2003 was in 2013 when they raised the RCF fence by three feet and lowered the LF fence by a foot. The configuration has been the exact same ever since.

Dig a little deeper and we can see that home run rates have suffered due to environmental factors (temperature, wind, etc.) more for Comerica in the past two seasons than any other ballpark.

I’m not saying we could not benefit at all by restructuring fence depths and height, to your point that recent results might lead to suboptimal player procurement and hitting strategies, but it does bear considering that the past couple of years have been unusual versus the seasons that went before it. 

The park factor stuff is susceptible to a whole range of inputs and assumptions that are difficult to unwind.  I'm avoiding the whole discussion of park factor data because I think there's a whole ton of noise in that area that makes it hard to draw a clear objective conclusion, and ultimately, the conclusions wind up being applied to hitting plots and such to demonstrate that we lost 5 HRs in 2022 or 10 HRs in 2021 but we had more doubles and so and so forth. 

The configuration of CoPa might theoretically and even objectively lead to higher offensive output all things being equal.  Regardless of what the objective reality of CoPa's park effects in a given period may be, it's **management's beliefs and conclusions** about CoPa's park effects that will determine their strategic response, even if their conclusions might happen to be wrong objectively, or out-of-date, or whatever.

If **management believes** that we are playing in a large park with a deadened ball and they do not acquire top-end power hitters to compensate, then they are more likely (than I am comfortable with) to adapt their roster, development, coaching, and lineups around that idea, and that's bad for this team from a long-term/strategic standpoint, **whether or not they are right or wrong about the actual/objective park effects.**

I don't know to what extent that **mentality and approach** has impacted the team's historically bad offense this year, apart from the injuries and individual skill issues and deadened ball and so on, but I am pretty sure that they have "managed themselves into a box", and I think they are coaching hitters into a low-power box, which if true would be the worst thing, especially for our young/developing hitters.

If they juice the ball again and the shift-ban helps pull-happy hitters and mediocre/marginal guys like Renato Nunez can come back from Korea and hit 30+ HRs even in a big park for cheap $$ again, then they will be able to synthesize a power-hitting approach that will cover a multitude of sins....

.....even in that last scenario, where most of the team production concerns could be realisitically addressed, the CoPa dimensions will still be doing our young hitters a disservice by encouraging them to pull the ball too much in order to squeeze out more HRs.

Yeah, anyway, it's a good discussion, I am sorry for beating it to death, that's what I do.

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

will still be doing our young hitters a disservice by encouraging them to pull the ball too much in order to squeeze out more HRs.

I don't know how big a problem this is for RHH because a RHH hitter can reach the LF stands easily enough at Copa. Tork has already shown he can reach the RF stands as did JD before him and as Cabrera always had. If they ban the shift my thought would be that the increased incentive for LHH to pull the ball will be great enough to swamp concerns about particular ball park dimensions.

But the deep CF gives a power pitcher some confidence challenging a hitter and that's a part of the game I like.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

i bet that you massively overrate the influence of prop betting in what they do to the ball.

did they increase the size of the bases because they knew there would be more prop betting on the number of stolen bases in an inning?

whatever they do to the game there will be bets and "prop bets" and in game bets.  the decisions on what to do with the ball have nothing to do with current prop bets.  

okey doke

[casimir]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The current hysteria because Riley didn't reach on one HR is being a bit overdone though.

The hysteria was bubbling up a bit before Riley's fly out.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

okey doke

cool beans.

[CMRivdogs]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

The current hysteria because Riley didn't reach on one HR is being a bit overdone though.

I'm old enough to remember way back when the flag was still in play in CF Sammy Sosa hitting one. He did his patented HR Hop, then watched as the ball fell harmlessly into the outfielder's glove. 

Fun times.

[sabretooth]

6 hours ago, casimir said:

The hysteria was bubbling up a bit before Riley's fly out.

My problem is caused by watching this team curl up in a ball offensively this entire year, with only a couple of regulars showing even the slightest amount of power, and my increasing thought is that there is a systematic aspect to this failure that the deep CF fences reinforce. 

To be fair, I also wonder if guys were slumping early in 2022 for various reasons, then because Miggy was hitting for a little bit of batting average (and the media was clucking about how he was "their best hitter"), perhaps guys thought (and perhaps were coached) that they should "learn from the master" and emphasize contact and "giving in", forgetting that hitting is about driving the ball hard and yes that includes flyballs, HRs, and pull-hitting.

Haase seems to be the only guy on the team that didn't give into that mode of hitting at all this year.  He has been swinging hard and trying to drive the ball, even when he was slumping early on.

[gehringer_2]

6 hours ago, casimir said:

The hysteria was bubbling up a bit before Riley's fly out.

Lynn?

[casimir]

12 hours ago, sabretooth said:

My problem is caused by watching this team curl up in a ball offensively this entire year, with only a couple of regulars showing even the slightest amount of power, and my increasing thought is that there is a systematic aspect to this failure that the deep CF fences reinforce. 

To be fair, I also wonder if guys were slumping early in 2022 for various reasons, then because Miggy was hitting for a little bit of batting average (and the media was clucking about how he was "their best hitter"), perhaps guys thought (and perhaps were coached) that they should "learn from the master" and emphasize contact and "giving in", forgetting that hitting is about driving the ball hard and yes that includes flyballs, HRs, and pull-hitting.

Haase seems to be the only guy on the team that didn't give into that mode of hitting at all this year.  He has been swinging hard and trying to drive the ball, even when he was slumping early on.

I don't know what's going in with the hitting.  A lot of the characters this season (3.3 runs/game) are the same as last year (4.3 runs/game), and we're talking players and coaches.  We've gone over the ins & outs of the Tiger roster from last to this season, no need to rehash.

Run scoring across the league is down a bit (4.5 last season to 4.3 this season), which is kind of interesting giving the addition of the DH in the NL.  Maybe that's in part to the deadened ball.  Maybe teams are increasingly using shifts.  Maybe pitching has just been getting better than hitting league wide.  Probably a combination of a lot of things that other teams are seeing across the league.  Snarkily, sure, the Tigers are bringing that down a bit by themselves, but we know one team cannot move that measure much.

They've showed Haase making an adjustment with his stance this season which has kind of coincided with his about face in performance.  Essentially his stance is wider and his front foot doesn't lift as high at the beginning of his swing.