09/12/2022 6:40 EDT Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

[casimir]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

except that this is false. The park plays average for HRs, has ever since they moved  LF. The reason the park HAS to be big is because they rotated it (wrt Tiger stadium) such that the prevailing summer west wind blows OUT. Tiger Stadium rotated around to where COPA would be a complete joke. They've did just fine getting to two WS in the 1st 10 yrs playing in COPA in the current configuration, which was a higher incidence rate of getting there than they ever had at Tiger Stadium.

The problem is not the ballpark, it's the roster.

Yes.  They're also bad on the road.

[RandyMarsh]

As of a few days ago when I looked Aaron Judge would have 50+ HRs in every park in baseball with most being in the mid 50s to even 60s but would only have 43 in Comerica. This according to expected hr total via statcast on baseball savant.

That's the most prodigious power hitter in the game that hits the ball further than anybody yet he'd have nearly 20% less HRs at Copa than if he did any place else in baseball. That tells me that it's not just our players but the fact that the park does have too extreme deep parts to it.

Edited September 14, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

As of a few days ago when I looked Aaron Judge would have 50+ HRs in every park in baseball with most being in the mid 50s to even 60s but would only have 43 in Comerica. This according to expected hr total via statcast on baseball savant.

That's the most prodigious power hitter in the game that hits the ball further than anybody yet he'd have nearly 20% less HRs at Copa than if he did any place else in baseball. That tells me that it's not just our players but the fact that the park does have too extreme deep parts to it.

No, it just tells you he's not a pull hitter so COPA is not his best park. No hitter will have the same profile in every park unless you mandate that they all be equal. If you bring in CF at COPA, you are going to have to move something else back out or you are going to end up that much more above average. Now I'm sure that is fine with a lot of folks, nothing wrong with that and YMMV, but if we are trying to move away from a '3 true outcomes' game you'd be taking COPA in the opposite direction.

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

except that this is not true. The field may be big, but overall through its history it has played average for HRs, has ever since they moved  LF. The reason the park HAS to be big is because they rotated it (wrt Tiger stadium) such that the prevailing summer west wind blows OUT. Tiger Stadium rotated around to where COPA would be a complete joke. They've did just fine getting to two WS in the 1st 10 yrs playing in COPA in the current configuration, which was a higher incidence rate of getting there than they ever had at Tiger Stadium. Guys hit the ball over the CF often enough. Granted the corners were the CF wall meets the R and L field wall are a bit much but that is a tiny proportion of the whole field. Parks factors look bad for the last couple of years but they always follow the home team performance (even though they shouldn't -if you watch them over time they always do....) because the team is crappy.

Tigers have hit 47 HR on the road, 42 at home, while scoring 28 more runs at home than on the road. The ball park is not the problem, the roster is.

A better measure of the *direct* impact of the park configurations on HRs would be to compare visiting players HR/FB rate at CoPa vs elsewhere.

The *indirect* "park effect" that I am talking about is:

- the way they are building the roster

- the way they are coaching players and

- the way players are approaching hitting with the new deadened ball.

Comparing Tiger HRs home/road only tells one part of the story.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, sabretooth said:

A better measure of the *direct* impact of the park configurations on HRs would be to compare visiting players HR/FB rate at CoPa vs elsewhere.

The *indirect* "park effect" that I am talking about is:

- the way they are building the roster

- the way they are coaching players and

- the way players are approaching hitting with the new deadened ball.

Comparing Tiger HRs home/road only tells one part of the story.

LOL - absolutely correct, but I'm too lazy to do that today! 

[sabretooth]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

No, it just tells you he's not a pull hitter so COPA is not his best park. No hitter will have the same profile in every park unless you mandate that they all be equal. If you bring in CF at COPA, you are going to have to move something else back out or you are going to end up that much more above average. Now I'm sure that is fine with a lot of folks, nothing wrong with that and YMMV, but if we are trying to move away from a '3 true outcomes' game you'd be taking COPA in the opposite direction.

Since we dont have a historic park to preserve, I just want CoPa to be a place where Mgt doesnt configure the roster to suit the park, and/or coaches and hitters arent altering hitting approaches to suit the park.

[sabretooth]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL - absolutely correct, but I'm too lazy to do that today! 

me too 👍😎

[buddha]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

except that this is not true. The field may be big, but overall through its history it has played average for HRs, has ever since they moved  LF. The reason the park HAS to be big is because they rotated it (wrt Tiger stadium) such that the prevailing summer west wind blows OUT. Tiger Stadium rotated around to where COPA would be a complete joke. They've did just fine getting to two WS in the 1st 10 yrs playing in COPA in the current configuration, which was a higher incidence rate of getting there than they ever had at Tiger Stadium. Guys hit the ball over the CF often enough. Granted the corners were the CF wall meets the R and L field wall are a bit much but that is a tiny proportion of the whole field. Parks factors look bad for the last couple of years but they always follow the home team performance (even though they shouldn't -if you watch them over time they always do....) because the team is crappy.

Tigers have hit 47 HR on the road, 42 at home, while scoring 28 more runs at home than on the road. The ball park is not the problem, the roster is.

i dont think anything you wrote shows what i said was false.

and i remember tiger mgmt talking about how they wanted the park to be different from tiger stadium and wanted a huge ballpark with a big outfield.

and they moved the fences in considerably from the original design.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

i dont think anything you wrote shows what i said was false.

and i remember tiger mgmt talking about how they wanted the park to be different from tiger stadium and wanted a huge ballpark with a big outfield.

and they moved the fences in considerably from the original design.

What was the original design?

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

What was the original design?

The biggest change is left center, 398 when the park opened, 370 today.

[Jim Cowan]

Every home run that lands in the bullpen, Smith and McHale didn't want those to be home runs.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

What was the original design?

In the original design, the bullpens were not in LF, so the LF wall was  what is now the far wall of the BP.  A LOT of HRs now fall into the BP. 

Just remove the inside wall of the BP and that's  the original field. They basically over compensated for the LF being the East (windward) wall. IIRC nothing much was done in right because RF played OK to begin with. There might have been some minor change to the height of the RF wall where they took out the old BP.

Edited September 14, 2022 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

5 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

The biggest change is left center, 398 when the park opened, 370 today.

 

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

In the original design, the bullpens were not in LF, so the LF wall was  what is now the far wall of the BP.  A LOT of HRs now fall into the BP. 

Just remove the inside wall of the BP and that's  the original field. They basically over compensated for the LF being the East (windward) wall. IIRC nothing much was done in right because RF played OK to begin with. There might have been some minor change to the height of the RF wall where they took out the old BP.

I remember the BPs behind RF and the more expansive LF.  I guess I thought there might have been a previous design that never came to fruition.

[gehringer_2]

people complain about CF but dead center is actually the same as Tiger Stadium was for the last 30-40 yrs at the old ball park- 420*. Now it's true that the 420 wall is a lot wider at COPA than it was at Tiger stadium so that just to left and right of dead center are longer at COPA. But there were still a good number of deep shots hit at Tiger stadium that guys didn't get rewarded for. They could round out the CF wall at COPA to get rid of the 430 areas and it wouldn't bother me but TBH I like the 420 to dead center. (For a long time I think Dan Dickerson was the only guy in the Det baseball media that understood that dead center was not the deepest point at COPA)

*If you are old enough to remember the flagpole being in play at TS,, it was 440 into a fairly square corner where the left and right field walls met, which was where the flagpole was. But when they did some remodel work at one point (60's, 70's?) they put a fence across the sharp corner which put the flagpole out of play and took about 15-20ft off the distance from dead center to home plate. Strangely enough, they left "440" painted on the wall until the end even though it wasn't anymore.

[RandyMarsh]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

people complain about CF but dead center is actually the same as Tiger Stadium was for the last 30-40 yrs at the old ball park- 420*. Now it's true that the 420 wall is a lot wider at COPA than it was at Tiger stadium so that just to left and right of dead center are longer at COPA. But there were still a good number of deep shots hit at Tiger stadium that guys didn't get rewarded for. They could round out the CF wall at COPA to get rid of the 430 areas and it wouldn't bother me but TBH I like the 420 to dead center. (For a long time I think Dan Dickerson was the only guy in the Det baseball media that understood that dead center was not the deepest point at COPA)

*If you are old enough to remember the flagpole being in play at TS,, it was 440 into a fairly square corner where the left and right field walls met, which was where the flagpole was. But when they did some remodel work at one point (60's, 70's?) they put a fence across the sharp corner which put the flagpole out of play and took about 15-20ft off the distance from dead center to home plate. Strangely enough, they left "440" painted on the wall until the end even though it wasn't anymore.

I was too young and/or just didn't pay close enough attention at the time to remember much about how things played at Tiger Stadium so I could totally be wrong but did the balls hit to straight away center field atleast go for doubles or triples? To me I think that is the biggest issue, like "death valley" at Copa in RCF doesn't give up many HRs but I don't have that big of issue with it cause atleast guys normally get rewarded with extra base hits but straight away center field it just "seems"(dangerous to seem so perhaps this isn't the case) that balls out there that aren't HRs end up in guys gloves and that's what I don't like, the ones that aren't caught are usually result on misplays by the fielder. I don't know if it's cause CF's just play deeper here or players are just speedier and can cover more ground but either way that's the frustrating part as a fan and I imagine a player. 

[Tiger337]

On 9/13/2022 at 9:31 AM, casimir said:

Oh, they can change the fences.  But without contact, without solidly barreling up the ball on the screws, it ain't gonna go out in a bandbox with the way this team approaches offense.

I don't know if its an available stat, but along with below average SO% and BB%, I would bet that average exit velocity for the Tigers is well below league average.

 

Right, If they don't hit the ball, moving in the fences is just going to help other teams more.  

[casimir]

7 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Right, If they don't hit the ball, moving in the fences is just going to help other teams more.  

Just eyeballing some of the good run of 2006 - 2013, the Tigers were above average in scoring more often than not, even as high as 2nd place in the AL a couple of times.  They simply had better hitters during that time than they do now.

[chasfh]

Remember how thrilled Juan Gonzalez was to see the new ballpark after he was traded here? He was so thrilled that he refused to sign with the Tigers for the richest long-term deal ever up to that point, turning down the most money which people insist players always take.

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Remember how thrilled Juan Gonzalez was to see the new ballpark after he was traded here? He was so thrilled that he refused to sign with the Tigers for the richest long-term deal ever up to that point, turning down the most money which people insist players always take.

yeah, the 390 LF power alley was too much. But is that is what they fixed. 

[chasfh]

41 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

yeah, the 390 LF power alley was too much. But is that is what they fixed. 

Not soon enough for Juan, who was Gone shortly thereafter.

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/juan-gonzalez/

After the season the Rangers traded González to the Detroit Tigers with two other players for six Tigers. Detroit’s new Comerica Park had dimensions not very friendly for batters like González. The Tigers offered González an eight-year contract worth $151.5 million, which would make him the highest-paid player ever. He declined to sign the contract, saying, “That park is too big for my batting style.” He added, “It is better to play at ease and be happy than to have all that money. … Money does not assure you of happiness.”

https://vault.si.com/vault/2001/09/03/the-power-of-juan-after-a-miserable-season-in-detroit-juan-gonzalez-has-gone-gaga-over-cleveland-where-he-has-hit-it-big-for-the-division-leading-indians

Gonzalez and his agent at the time, Scott Boras, visited the home of Rangers owner Tom Hicks to discuss returning to Texas, but Hicks had just committed $252 million to free-agent shortstop Alex Rodriguez. There was always Detroit. In the end the Indians all but stole Gonzalez, signing him to a one-year, $10 million contract. "This is a business, and I have to think about money," says Gonzalez, "but what was most important was the team. Cleveland wins a lot, and they have good friends of mine. It was a great situation."

https://vault.si.com/vault/2000/05/29/courting-disaster-the-detroit-tigers-traded-a-carload-of-young-players-for-two-time-mvp-juan-gonzalez-hoping-to-seduce-him-into-a-long-term-relationship-so-far-it-has-been-a-very-rocky-affair

Gonzalez doesn't want the Tigers' money--not now, anyway. He told SI last week that he will not engage in contract discussions until after the season, when he is eligible for free agency. "Right now it's quiet, and I want it to stay that way," Gonzalez says. "I just want to play baseball and put up my numbers. After the season is the time for talking."

When asked what he wants most from the team he next signs with, Gonzalez says, "A chance of winning every year." The Tigers can give him enough cash to buy a small-market franchise, but as they struggle through their seventh consecutive losing season, they can't promise a World Series appearance anytime soon.

And here I was assured that when a team offers the most money the player will take it.

[SoCalTiger]

Ya well you can never factor in stupid

[gehringer_2]

Best deal the Tigers never made.

[Jim Cowan]

23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And here I was assured that when a team offers the most money the player will take it.

Good for you, you found one example.  Gonzalez was 31 when he made that choice.  Big stars who have already made a ton of money and are over 30 can do things like that.  That isn't who the Tigers will be trying to sign.  For the guy entering free agency for the first time, money talks. 

[chasfh]

11 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Good for you, you found one example.  Gonzalez was 31 when he made that choice.  Big stars who have already made a ton of money and are over 30 can do things like that.  That isn't who the Tigers will be trying to sign.  For the guy entering free agency for the first time, money talks. 

I did not realize that Correa is going through free agency for the first time, and that the $62 million he's earned is not a ton of money, since if the Tigers offer him the most money he'll take it, and bonus, he's lying when he said in July that a rebuilding team isn’t something he wants to be a part of.

[RandyMarsh]

Definitely glad that the Tigers didn't sign him long term but it's funny how your perception can work sometimes. Like my memory always told me he was once a big name that we traded for after his prime but looking back he was only 30 when we got him and coming off two monster seasons in a row.

He then proceeded to put up a decent season for us then another monster one for Cleveland before falling off a cliff at the age of 32. I don't remember why that was but perhaps steroids had something to do with it.