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09/12/2022 6:40 EDT Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers


casimir

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49 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Definitely glad that the Tigers didn't sign him long term but it's funny how your perception can work sometimes. Like my memory always told me he was once a big name that we traded for after his prime but looking back he was only 30 when we got him and coming off two monster seasons in a row.

He then proceeded to put up a decent season for us then another monster one for Cleveland before falling off a cliff at the age of 32. I don't remember why that was but perhaps steroids had something to do with it. 

Yup - PEDs have to be considered and with latin players of that era it's hard to be confident their ages are correct, but even that said, some guys do get older quicker. You see it start more at 33-34 but there is always a lot variation in the human population.

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3 hours ago, chasfh said:

I did not realize that Correa is going through free agency for the first time, and that the $62 million he's earned is not a ton of money, since if the Tigers offer him the most money he'll take it, and bonus, he's lying when he said in July that a rebuilding team isn’t something he wants to be a part of.

OK I agree, from now on we'll use Juan Gonzalez as an example of a typical free agent.

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Its funny how one move or lack of move in this case could potentially change things for over a decade for a franchise. 

Alot of what ifs but if Juan signs that extension and fails does Mike still pony up for Pudge and Maggs? Hard to say but if the answer is no then we of course don't go to the WS in 2006 or win 90 games in 07, and by having that strong 07 it made Mike want to make a push to get us over the top so we went out and got Cabrera. 

If we were say a .500 or 70 some win team do we still go after Miggy? So as bad as the franchise has been the last 8 or 9 years if Juan signs that extension there is atleast a chance that we never even got to experience that 10 year run of success. 

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34 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Its funny how one move or lack of move in this case could potentially change things for over a decade for a franchise. 

Alot of what ifs but if Juan signs that extension and fails does Mike still pony up for Pudge and Maggs? Hard to say but if the answer is no then we of course don't go to the WS in 2006 or win 90 games in 07, and by having that strong 07 it made Mike want to make a push to get us over the top so we went out and got Cabrera. 

If we were say a .500 or 70 some win team do we still go after Miggy? So as bad as the franchise has been the last 8 or 9 years if Juan signs that extension there is atleast a chance that we never even got to experience that 10 year run of success. 

There's something to be said for that, since we would have been on the hook for that contract of almost $20 million per year through 2008.

Flip side, Papa Doc was motivated to win a ring before he died in a way Baby Doc ain't, so who knows, maybe he still goes out and throws 4/40 at Pudge and 5/75 at Maggs anyhow.

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On 9/13/2022 at 9:31 AM, casimir said:

Oh, they can change the fences.  But without contact, without solidly barreling up the ball on the screws, it ain't gonna go out in a bandbox with the way this team approaches offense.

I don't know if its an available stat, but along with below average SO% and BB%, I would bet that average exit velocity for the Tigers is well below league average.

One more item:  A Bake McBride reference?  Hat tip.

The Tigers used to rely on the following for their lineup needs (before they started tanking in 2017):

- big owner spend on sluggers like Miggy, Prince, Hunter, and VMart.  Except where Miggy and VMart were too injured to perform well, that worked.

- a couple of mediocre complimentary players contributing above-average performance.

Then came the prevalence of super-high-velocity pitching, hard-sliders, and the shift.

They juiced the ball from the 2015 ASB to somewhere around 2021 or so, but since they were tanking for four of those years they kinda missed out on the benefits (except from Niko LOL).

Now in 2022, they don't have the big owner spend, and the complimentary players that fill the lineup are no longer able to get it done with the emergence of a more pitcher-friendly environment as indicated above, and their own skill defects/decline. 

Moving the fences in I strongly believe will allow the Tigers brass to focus on acquiring a broader range of more affordable hitters who will be able to produce nominal or better offense for us without being primarily very good groundball hitters (L. Arreaz types, who are very hard to find) or high-priced sluggers who can overcome the park dimensions with the deadened ball.

I also believe that young hitters like Tork, Greene, Carpenter, or Kriedler will be less likely to fully develop their power hitting potential playing in a park with such an unusual and HR-unfriendly CF configuration.  To hit for power they will have to pull the ball more, and that is not conducive to strong all-fields power hitting, which is key for the best hitters.

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16 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The Tigers used to rely on the following for their lineup needs (before they started tanking in 2017):

- big owner spend on sluggers like Miggy, Prince, Hunter, and VMart.  Except where Miggy and VMart were too injured to perform well, that worked.

- a couple of mediocre complimentary players contributing above-average performance.

Then came the prevalence of super-high-velocity pitching, hard-sliders, and the shift.

They juiced the ball from the 2015 ASB to somewhere around 2021 or so, but since they were tanking for four of those years they kinda missed out on the benefits (except from Niko LOL).

Now in 2022, they don't have the big owner spend, and the complimentary players that fill the lineup are no longer able to get it done with the emergence of a more pitcher-friendly environment as indicated above, and their own skill defects/decline. 

Moving the fences in I strongly believe will allow the Tigers brass to focus on acquiring a broader range of more affordable hitters who will be able to produce nominal or better offense for us without being primarily very good groundball hitters (L. Arreaz types, who are very hard to find) or high-priced sluggers who can overcome the park dimensions with the deadened ball.

I also believe that young hitters like Tork, Greene, Carpenter, or Kriedler will be less likely to fully develop their power hitting potential playing in a park with such an unusual and HR-unfriendly CF configuration.  To hit for power they will have to pull the ball more, and that is not conducive to strong all-fields power hitting, which is key for the best hitters.

The hitters might benefit from shorter distances, but what about the pitchers?

And it bears repeating, this team cannot make contact with the bat.  So who is really going to gain from cozier dimensions, the team that cannot make contact, or the team that can?  They’re bottom 5 in SO% and dead last in BB%.  Seriously, how do different dimensions alleviate those serious issues?

Their big offensive acquisitions were Baez (contact issues) and Meadows (on the IL pretty much all season).  Greene and Torkleson weren’t able to make the impacts that were hoped for, and in fairness, they are rookies so they shouldn’t have been depended upon.  Schoop and Candelario are having the worst seasons of their career, Cabrera is a corpse.  It’s been said before that Baez can’t be the best player on a winning team, and unfortunately we’re seeing it in action.

I hate no baseball, but it’s getting to be about time to flush this season.  It just sucks so much.

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22 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I realize that people are going to say "wait, the shift is being outlawed, that should help", but the benefit of that is slanted towards pull-happy sluggers.  I hope our young sluggers aren't looking to be pull-happy, even Carpenter has flashed all-fields power.

There were a few hits to the opposite field yesterday.  Obviously it wasn’t enough, but didn’t they come from Greene and Carpenter?  That was good to see.

They really need an everyday RHH corner OF with power.  Go get Judge and have him patrol RF.  Greene in CF, Meadows can DH, one of Carpenter/Baddoo in LF with a RHH platoon partner.  Let’s go, damnit, somebody make Judge to Detroit happen!

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3 minutes ago, casimir said:

There were a few hits to the opposite field yesterday.  Obviously it wasn’t enough, but didn’t they come from Greene and Carpenter?  That was good to see.

They really need an everyday RHH corner OF with power.  Go get Judge and have him patrol RF.  Greene in CF, Meadows can DH, one of Carpenter/Baddoo in LF with a RHH platoon partner.  Let’s go, damnit, somebody make Judge to Detroit happen!

Where is Mike illitch when you need him ?

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25 minutes ago, casimir said:

The hitters might benefit from shorter distances, but what about the pitchers?

And it bears repeating, this team cannot make contact with the bat.  So who is really going to gain from cozier dimensions, the team that cannot make contact, or the team that can?  They’re bottom 5 in SO% and dead last in BB%.  Seriously, how do different dimensions alleviate those serious issues?

Their big offensive acquisitions were Baez (contact issues) and Meadows (on the IL pretty much all season).  Greene and Torkleson weren’t able to make the impacts that were hoped for, and in fairness, they are rookies so they shouldn’t have been depended upon.  Schoop and Candelario are having the worst seasons of their career, Cabrera is a corpse.  It’s been said before that Baez can’t be the best player on a winning team, and unfortunately we’re seeing it in action.

I hate no baseball, but it’s getting to be about time to flush this season.  It just sucks so much.

What is the worry with regards to the pitchers?  They are enjoying an advantage right now that they would not enjoy with more normal dimensions.  If we are getting decent pitchers then they will pitch decently in a normal park.

And this has nothing to do with the players they have.  This has to do with making sure that this organization doesn't skew it's approach to players and performance based on having dimensions that are markedly unconventional.

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Again, if anyone thinks that I'm wanting them to engineer better outcomes by moving fences, you're wrong.

My desire is to eliminate a markedly unconventional park feature that has the very strong potential to skew their entire organizational approach, especially with the deadened ball and the continued prevalence of super-high-velocity fastballs and hard sliders.

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1 hour ago, casimir said:

And it bears repeating, this team cannot make contact with the bat.  So who is really going to gain from cozier dimensions, the team that cannot make contact, or the team that can?  They’re bottom 5 in SO% and dead last in BB%.  Seriously, how do different dimensions alleviate those serious issues?

Again, this has nothing to do with helping the mediocre to poor hitters on this team at this time.  I am looking to give our talented young hitters a more standard environment to develop to the fullest extent. 

If the team moved the fences to a more normal depth, that would also allay my concerns that they would focus on a narrower band of underperforming defense-oriented players suited more to the park, rather than truly being competitive.

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1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

What is the worry with regards to the pitchers?  They are enjoying an advantage right now that they would not enjoy with more normal dimensions.  If we are getting decent pitchers then they will pitch decently in a normal park.

And this has nothing to do with the players they have.  This has to do with making sure that this organization doesn't skew it's approach to players and performance based on having dimensions that are markedly unconventional.

You don't think the pitching will be not as good?  I was half joking about the fly ball map, but in all seriousness, what would the net effect of bringing the fences in be?  How many more warning track outs have the Tigers had vs the opposition?  I don't know the magnitude, but I would imagine the Tiger pitchers have benefitted from long outs that would be home runs in other ball parks.

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Again, this has nothing to do with helping the mediocre to poor hitters on this team at this time.  I am looking to give our talented young hitters a more standard environment to develop to the fullest extent. 

If the team moved the fences to a more normal depth, that would also allay my concerns that they would focus on a narrower band of underperforming defense-oriented players suited more to the park, rather than truly being competitive.

I don't know what's going on in the minor leagues.  I would hope that the SO% & BB% are more in line with normal than what we are seeing in Detroit.  I would hope they're learning how to work pitchers, focus on making solid hard hit rate type contact on hittable pitches and taking them to whatever field is best based on pitch type and location.  I would hope they aren't just swinging for the downs.

What talented young players are we talking about?  Greene & Torkelson?  I hope they have something with Kreidler, Carpenter, Baddoo, anyone else.  But I think we're grasping at more hope than anything given how the draft & development has been handled the last several years with some of the younger guys.

I actually think what would help the youngsters at the major league level would be to have actual major league batters performing to reasonable expectations surrounding those youngsters in the lineup.  The horsebleep seasons from Baez, Schoop, Candelario, Cabrera, Meadows, etc, sure ain't helping the cause for Greene & Torkelson.

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5 hours ago, casimir said:

You don't think the pitching will be not as good?  I was half joking about the fly ball map, but in all seriousness, what would the net effect of bringing the fences in be?  How many more warning track outs have the Tigers had vs the opposition?  I don't know the magnitude, but I would imagine the Tiger pitchers have benefitted from long outs that would be home runs in other ball parks.

I think the only way I can make my point clearer is to say that I do not care at all about these tactical considerations about how many HRs or how many warning track FBs or the marginal effects of HRs allowed by Tiger pitchers.  Those are marginal considerations at best.

To the best of my knowledge they have never tried to gear their pitching staff or pitching style to suit the park, and I don't really think that's practicable.

5 hours ago, casimir said:

I don't know what's going on in the minor leagues.  I would hope that the SO% & BB% are more in line with normal than what we are seeing in Detroit.  I would hope they're learning how to work pitchers, focus on making solid hard hit rate type contact on hittable pitches and taking them to whatever field is best based on pitch type and location.  I would hope they aren't just swinging for the downs.

What talented young players are we talking about?  Greene & Torkelson?  I hope they have something with Kreidler, Carpenter, Baddoo, anyone else.  But I think we're grasping at more hope than anything given how the draft & development has been handled the last several years with some of the younger guys.

I've named the talented young hitters, Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Kriedler at this time, and hopefully more to come.

I have said that I want our hitters to hit effectively to all fields.  Having a deep CF configuration does not foster that IMO.

5 hours ago, casimir said:

I actually think what would help the youngsters at the major league level would be to have actual major league batters performing to reasonable expectations surrounding those youngsters in the lineup.  The horsebleep seasons from Baez, Schoop, Candelario, Cabrera, Meadows, etc, sure ain't helping the cause for Greene & Torkelson.

I agree with that 100%, and it would be nice if the veterans started working out better, but I am less sure about the effect that changing OF dimensions would have on veteran hitters at this point.  I don't feel as positive that the downward shift for Candy/Schoop/Baez can be positively impacted at this point by a change in the OF dimensions. 

I'm hoping for this as part of a larger effort to eliminate potential stumbling blocks (esp. with the deader ball) in the way of the development and coaching of young position players, and the acquisition of more effective and affordable veteran hitters, and I really think the outfield dimensions are likely to skew both efforts and make them less able to compete.

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3 hours ago, sabretooth said:

I'm hoping for this as part of a larger effort to eliminate potential stumbling blocks (esp. with the deader ball) ....

Ah, here's a wrinkle in all of this.  Who knows what baseball will be like next season?  Deader?  Livelier?  Same?  Would hope it would be the same given the other variable changes to game play (shift rules, pitch clock), but who knows what it will be like.

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12 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Again, if anyone thinks that I'm wanting them to engineer better outcomes by moving fences, you're wrong.

My desire is to eliminate a markedly unconventional park feature that has the very strong potential to skew their entire organizational approach, especially with the deadened ball and the continued prevalence of super-high-velocity fastballs and hard sliders.

I’m not so sure the ball is going to continue to be deadened in its current state. Baseball just doubled down on pull-happy sluggers because prop bettors dig the long ball. Also, the strikeout. So whatever they can to that encourages more of that, that’s what I myself would expect to see.

I don’t know whether moving in the fences, particularly in left, will address the dearth-of-dingers problem since for the last five seasons, the 3-year-rolling HR park factor is higher for RHH than for LHH. That might suggest a different problem at hand than our particular outfield configuration.

If we examine park factors on the Savant site, we can see that Comerica played better than average for HR hitters for eight of the eleven seasons from 2007-2017, then cratered after that. The only changes to the ballpark since 2003 was in 2013 when they raised the RCF fence by three feet and lowered the LF fence by a foot. The configuration has been the exact same ever since.

Dig a little deeper and we can see that home run rates have suffered due to environmental factors (temperature, wind, etc.) more for Comerica in the past two seasons than any other ballpark.

I’m not saying we could not benefit at all by restructuring fence depths and height, to your point that recent results might lead to suboptimal player procurement and hitting strategies, but it does bear considering that the past couple of years have been unusual versus the seasons that went before it. 

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11 hours ago, casimir said:

What talented young players are we talking about?  Greene & Torkelson?  I hope they have something with Kreidler, Carpenter, Baddoo, anyone else.  But I think we're grasping at more hope than anything given how the draft & development has been handled the last several years with some of the younger guys.

To this point in particular, I have been wondering lately what the effect of a sudden change in organizational hitting/coaching philosophy, competence, and (frankly) personnel might have on the players we currently have in our system. We have seen for years now players flop around for us and then go on to productive careers with other teams which presumably have better hitting systems in place than we.

Can Akil, Willi, Kody, et al, be saved?

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10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Dig a little deeper and we can see that home run rates have suffered due to environmental factors (temperature, wind, etc.) more for Comerica in the past two seasons than any other ballpark.

people don't give enough credit to how much weather can subtly shift from year to year. When Target opened in MN everyone was pulling their hair out at the end of the first season because there were no home runs, but it was just a really weird summer with a lot of cool dry evenings for the night games. People didn't notice because it was still nice weather to be at the ball park, just enough cooler than normal for enough weeks when a lot of home games were on the schedule. Park played fine every year since.

Since my summer bike rides are mostly east-west, it did seem to me that the west wind was  less prevalent this year than most esp earlier in the summer.

If they filleted the corners of the CF wall that would take away the most egregious points and few enough balls actually end up there it would affect perception a lot more than game play, which IMV is all that is needed here. The 420 dead center is fine. COPA is one of several parks that reach 420 at their deepest point. 

The current hysteria because Riley didn't reach on one HR is being a bit overdone though.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I’m not so sure the ball is going to continue to be deadened in its current state. Baseball just doubled down on pull-happy sluggers because prop bettors dig the long ball. Also, the strikeout. So whatever they can to that encourages more of that, that’s what I myself would expect to see.

I don’t know whether moving in the fences, particularly in left, will address the dearth-of-dingers problem since for the last five seasons, the 3-year-rolling HR park factor is higher for RHH than for LHH. That might suggest a different problem at hand than our particular outfield configuration.

If we examine park factors on the Savant site, we can see that Comerica played better than average for HR hitters for eight of the eleven seasons from 2007-2017, then cratered after that. The only changes to the ballpark since 2003 was in 2013 when they raised the RCF fence by three feet and lowered the LF fence by a foot. The configuration has been the exact same ever since.

Dig a little deeper and we can see that home run rates have suffered due to environmental factors (temperature, wind, etc.) more for Comerica in the past two seasons than any other ballpark.

I’m not saying we could not benefit at all by restructuring fence depths and height, to your point that recent results might lead to suboptimal player procurement and hitting strategies, but it does bear considering that the past couple of years have been unusual versus the seasons that went before it. 

what do "prop bettors" have to do with anything?

there will be prop bets whether they deaden the ball or not.

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3 hours ago, casimir said:

Ah, here's a wrinkle in all of this.  Who knows what baseball will be like next season?  Deader?  Livelier?  Same?  Would hope it would be the same given the other variable changes to game play (shift rules, pitch clock), but who knows what it will be like.

Well I hope it will remain deader, because I certainly don't want to see equipment changes imposed on a routine basis.  Once every 10 or 20 years is one thing, but if they are going to start going live/dead/live/dead every couple of years that would have a pretty chaotic effect on player performance.

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3 minutes ago, buddha said:

what do "prop bettors" have to do with anything?

there will be prop bets whether they deaden the ball or not.

I hypothesize that if the rate of home runs and strikeouts increase, it will increase the amount of prop betting on home runs and strikeouts, and I ... ahem ... bet that Baseball hypothesizes the same.

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