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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Seeing some reports that Russian officers have withdrawn to beyond the East bank of the Dnipro near Kherson. Given how well the Russian army fights when their officers are not amongst to manage them.....

Since there's no fast retreat with the bridges blown to hell...

A) All those officers had to do that... get east of the river and closer to Crimea/ the Donbas

B) There's going to be a Ukrainian offensive to retake Kherson. I'm going to predict that it happens swiftly, once they commence the full scale assault... and that there will be a whole lot of Russian soldiers west of the Dnieper surrendering... as fast as they can...

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The war is getting hot for the Russians now. More reporting of deep strikes into Crimea again today and also at C&C targets near Kherson. The Ukrainians now apparently using Excalibur(TM) rounds that can hit a rat's ass on the 1st shot, going a long way to neutralize the Russian advantages in numbers of shell deliverable - at least in strategic terms. 

I can't help but wonder if the Ukrainians have figured out that even if culturally they might want the eastern territory back more than Crimea, it's Crimea which is the Russian's soft underbelly. The Russians cannot resupply or defend it in the face of Ukrainian long range fire capability so I'm starting to understand that is where Ukraine has decided to go for the jugular. Not to mention that strategically Crimea does more to guarantees Ukraine's Black Sea access than eastern acres.

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3 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

 

 

They need to also continue to hit Russia on Russian territory... like this.

Lots and lots of sabotage...

Crimea taking hits is awesome....

But also, take out bridges, railways, ammo and fuel depots on Russian territory...

Both give incentive for Putin to back the fuck off.

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

you kill a family member to pressure the guy to do something he was 'supposed' to do but hasn't, right? And TBH that sounds a lot more like mob SOP than the Ukrainians, though you do never know.

The calculus changes if she was specifically targeted.  I can also imagine it was Putin trying to garner sympathy for his own side.   He has been known to do stuff like that. 

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I've read some observers of the War who feel that the profile of US arms transfers to Ukraine argues that the US is more interested in Ukraine bleeding the Russians out than actually helping them regain their lost territories (i.e. lack of APC's, main battle tanks, F-16s).

OTOH, I suppose one line of thought might be that if Ukraine can bleed Russia enough, they might get a Russian withdrawal without having to retake it all block by block with the casualties that would entail. But that strikes me as banking on some internal Russian process that would remove Putin when the military pain got bad enough. That certainly appears impossible, but such such things always do right up until they aren't.

It would also be nice if the Germans got on board and stopped playing into Putin's hands with their energy non-policies.

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