Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[chasfh]

Say what you want about the guy—and people do, since he lips off as a pundit on MSNBC—but at least this guy puts his money where his mouth is.

 

[Tigeraholic1]

Sounds like an Avila trade! 😝

 

 

[pfife]

It does seem like one really bad dude for 2 non criminals but we need to bring them both home.

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, pfife said:

It does seem like one really bad dude for 2 non criminals but we need to bring them both home.

He's served 10 years out of 25 for arms trafficking. He would have been let go within 5 years anyways (do Russians also get "good behavior" in our prisons...?); so why not dump the guy for two American citizens that Russia is F'ing with?

I do this trade every day to Sunday...

But that's just me.

Now if they could just add in Edward Snowden for a kicker we could have icing on our cake...

[romad1]

They will capture others. 

[1984Echoes]

Of course they will.

And if it's the Donbass crew that captures them their lives are in that much more danger.

Don't they already have two Americans there that they've sentenced to death?

[ewsieg]

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

He's served 10 years out of 25 for arms trafficking. He would have been let go within 5 years anyways (do Russians also get "good behavior" in our prisons...?); so why not dump the guy for two American citizens that Russia is F'ing with?

I do this trade every day to Sunday...

But that's just me.

Now if they could just add in Edward Snowden for a kicker we could have icing on our cake...

So, a Russian withdraw from Eastern Ukraine in exchange for an extra 5 minutes for our Nukes to hit Russia which also could potential save millions of lives across the globe is rewarding Putin and the only solution is simply for Russia to stop the invasion.

But giving Putin an arms trafficker back in exchange for a person that did break their laws (as small as it may be) and another person is not a reward?  Obviously we should keep this trafficker in jail, the simple solution is simply for Russia to release Greiner and Whelan.

[1984Echoes]

Which they're not going to do.

BTW, this is not a reward.

It's paying a ransom.

[1984Echoes]

You really don't understand this very well, do you?

Please give me an answer:

What do you think of Putin bombing the Port of Odessa yesterday, preventing the shipment of famine saving Ukrainian grain to starving Africans, two days after agreeing (through Turkey's efforts) to allow Russian & Ukrainian grain to be shipped  to starving Africans?

[gehringer_2]

50 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

So, a Russian withdraw from Eastern Ukraine in exchange for an extra 5 minutes for our Nukes to hit Russia which also could potential save millions of lives across the globe is rewarding Putin and the only solution is simply for Russia to stop the invasion.

But giving Putin an arms trafficker back in exchange for a person that did break their laws (as small as it may be) and another person is not a reward?  Obviously we should keep this trafficker in jail, the simple solution is simply for Russia to release Greiner and Whelan.

I know your trolling a bit here because it's not a very apt comparison. It's not about Putin winning in and of itself. The future of 40 million people don't hang on the balance of what happens to a Russian crook and a stoner (maybe) American minor league roundball player. The reason Putin can't be allowed to win in Ukraine is those 40 million, and the IDK how many million more in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania & Finland etc., that still have to live next to Russia. The reason it doesn't matter if he wins in this trade is because the 3 people in involved don't matter very much to the world order but do to their families, which is enough.

Edited July 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[ewsieg]

19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

You really don't understand this very well, do you?

Please give me an answer:

What do you think of Putin bombing the Port of Odessa yesterday, preventing the shipment of famine saving Ukrainian grain to starving Africans, two days after agreeing (through Turkey's efforts) to allow Russian & Ukrainian grain to be shipped  to starving Africans?

It's crap, that's what it is.  Which is why if there is an opportunity to negotiate an end to this war, especially where it returns Ukraine controlled land back to 2021 borders, it would be a huge win.   Once that is in place, send in the Calvary, the MIG's, F-16's, A-10's, etc.  I'm not saying once Zelinsky signs a negotiation to ignore Ukraine, instead, make it an extremely strong Ally that can detour Russia later, even without Nukes sitting on their border.

But nope, let's just carry on a proxy war, for however long it takes, apparently that's the only option.

[Jim Cowan]

12 hours ago, romad1 said:

Well, he is the only one defending manly men and their virility.   Which is why the Russian airborne forces were voted gayest ever. 

 

[1984Echoes]

And once again, you're making an assumption that Putin is just going to stop because an "agreement" was signed.

Did you not read my prior post? Putin signed an agreement on grain... for both countries (allowing Ukraine to ship). And then just shit all over that agreement. He has no respect whatsoever for your "agreements". They mean NOTHING to him. 

I think you're being Pollyannish. And I'm not saying that to be mean... I believe that is the correct word. In that you are completely disregarding who Putin actually is because of your overwhelming desire for an agreement. You're thinking roses and Putin is thinking I WANT LAND.

So... you are ALSO making an assumption that Putin even wants to sign that agreement because removing nukes is so appealing to him that he should give up his Czar Peter the Great delusions... Which I believe to be another false assumption.

Before posting again on how badly you want this agreement, or how badly it is needed...

Think about what Putin actually wants. Start from that point and see if you can get to an agreement. Because I don't think you can. Do you think Putin is going to give up one inch of Ukrainian land that he now controls, to go back to the pre-2022 controlled land? That answer is no. Unless he is forced to give up that land by losing on the battlefield. He is NOT going to give up that land for your nukes or an end to hostilities. He WANTS those hostilities and he WANTS Ukrainian land. All of it. Period.

And I didn't even mention what Ukraine wants. Or what the rest of Europe wants, in the way of security... Do you want just the US to pull out its nukes? Or are you going to force France and the UK (also obviously a part of Europe and of NATO) to give up their own nukes as well?

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

But nope, let's just carry on a proxy war, for however long it takes, apparently that's the only option.

Sadly, a lot of reporting coming out of Russia is to the effect that Putin still believes he is winning and that time is on Russia's side because he will hold out longer than the West will. If that doesn't change, there seems little hope of him agreeing to any acceptable negotiation. There is a line to walk here and of course no-one knows exactly where it is. On one hand, we can argue for a maximalist, faster, stronger response to force Russia into a bad enough position sooner on the hope that gets a serious Putin to the table with less damage to Ukraine. OTOH, you have the argument that maybe you trip Russia into a full mobilization and suddenly make life much more difficult where you could have just bleed him out by calibrating the pressure applied so he just cooks himself like a frog in increasingly hot water and one day the Russian army in Ukraine simply has no fight left.

Like any war, no options are risk free, and in ten years we will be able to see all the things we are doing wrong.

Edited July 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[pfife]

It's utterly ridiculous that they're charging Griner with trafficking over .7 grams in a vape pen.   For context, the dispensary up the road sells 1g vape cartridges 10 for $100. 

Apparently she trafficked $7 in weed

Edited July 28, 2022 by pfife

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, pfife said:

It's utterly ridiculous that they're charging Griner

Of course it is. She was wrong place, wrong time. I don't know who was giving her advice but any American that didn't get out of Russia when Ukraine was starting to heat up wasn't getting good advice.

[gehringer_2]

 

[ewsieg]

34 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

And once again, you're making an assumption that Putin is just going to stop because an "agreement" was signed.

Did you not read my prior post? Putin signed an agreement on grain... for both countries (allowing Ukraine to ship). And then just shit all over that agreement. He has no respect whatsoever for your "agreements". They mean NOTHING to him. 

I think you're being Pollyannish. And I'm not saying that to be mean... I believe that is the correct word. In that you are completely disregarding who Putin actually is because of your overwhelming desire for an agreement. You're thinking roses and Putin is thinking I WANT LAND.

So... you are ALSO making an assumption that Putin even wants to sign that agreement because removing nukes is so appealing to him that he should give up his Czar Peter the Great delusions... Which I believe to be another false assumption.

Before posting again on how badly you want this agreement, or how badly it is needed...

Think about what Putin actually wants. Start from that point and see if you can get to an agreement. Because I don't think you can. Do you think Putin is going to give up one inch of Ukrainian land that he now controls, to go back to the pre-2022 controlled land? That answer is no. Unless he is forced to give up that land by losing on the battlefield. He is NOT going to give up that land for your nukes or an end to hostilities. He WANTS those hostilities and he WANTS Ukrainian land. All of it. Period.

And I didn't even mention what Ukraine wants. Or what the rest of Europe wants, in the way of security... Do you want just the US to pull out its nukes? Or are you going to force France and the UK (also obviously a part of Europe and of NATO) to give up their own nukes as well?

For the record, the idea that Putin would withdraw from Ukraine in exchange for any Nukes taken out of Eastern Europe is about as likely as the Tigers getting Soto for Baddoo and a couple of prospects not named Torkelson and Riley.  I never said that offer was believable, but I was shocked that everyone on this board thought it would be good for Putin.  

But if Putin does negotiate that, and pulls his troops out, like I said, increase the risk for him should he go against his word and heads back into Ukraine again.  

Just an FYI, if the US launches a Nuke from Poland or from Nebraska, rest assured we're all screwed anyway.  But yes, Russia would get about an extra 20-30 minutes to say their goodbyes, just like us, instead of only getting 5-10 minutes that many of them would get as of today.  The much bigger deterrence is having them, not where they are located.

 

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

But if Putin does negotiate that, and pulls his troops out, like I said, increase the risk for him should he go against his word and heads back into Ukraine again. 

of course there's the rub, and Putin knows it. When he does come to the table you can be sure it will be with all kind of wonderful offers, but only in return for the demilitarization of Ukraine. And of course it's perfectly obvious what the long term Russian play is. You can book that.

Don't forget, the Russian's already made and walked away from this deal once with Ukraine - territorial guarantees for the surrender of the Russian nukes in their control after the dissolution of the USSR. We might have forgotten that, but I don't think the Ukrainians have or will. No Ukraine deal with Putin will be worth the paper it's printed on. So the west can't give up any defense prerogatives. A 'deal' will at best formalize an armed standoff. And Russia will have no one to blame but themselves for being a lying POS partner on their previous agreement.

Edited July 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

Bingo.

G2 nailed it.

Russia agreed to protect Ukraine (along with the US and others) in exchange for Ukraine giving up all its nukes. December 5th, 1994.

So where is Ukraine now, with regards to Russia's "protection". How much land has Russia/ Putin stolen from Ukraine, after Ukraine gave up its nukes?

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, ewsieg said:

For the record, the idea that Putin would withdraw from Ukraine in exchange for any Nukes taken out of Eastern Europe is about as likely as the Tigers getting Soto for Baddoo and a couple of prospects not named Torkelson and Riley.  I never said that offer was believable, but I was shocked that everyone on this board thought it would be good for Putin.  

But if Putin does negotiate that, and pulls his troops out, like I said, increase the risk for him should he go against his word and heads back into Ukraine again.  

Just an FYI, if the US launches a Nuke from Poland or from Nebraska, rest assured we're all screwed anyway.  But yes, Russia would get about an extra 20-30 minutes to say their goodbyes, just like us, instead of only getting 5-10 minutes that many of them would get as of today.  The much bigger deterrence is having them, not where they are located.

 

The issue is not Mutual Assured Destruction.

The issue is to prevent Putin from using military violence to take whatever he wants to take.

And to prevent his murder, rape, and other war criming.

Nukes in Europe will give him more than pause. He won't attack NATO, even tiny little next-door neighbor Estonia... if the proper deterrence is in place.

Just like the lack of nukes in Ukraine DIDN'T stop him from taking Crimea and trying to take over the entire country.

[ewsieg]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

The issue is not Mutual Assured Destruction.

The issue is to prevent Putin from using military violence to take whatever he wants to take.

And to prevent his murder, rape, and other war criming.

Nukes in Europe will give him more than pause. He won't attack NATO, even tiny little next-door neighbor Estonia... if the proper deterrence is in place.

Just like the lack of nukes in Ukraine DIDN'T stop him from taking Crimea and trying to take over the entire country.

The lack of a response from the west is what didn't deter him from invading the rest of the country.  We still had Nukes close to him and like you said, he made sure not to hit a NATO country.  In likely as quick as a year take Sweden and Finland off of the list of countries he could attack.  Georgia is probably the only other vulnerable country right now.  Russia, at least with the losses we are attributing to them, could not do a full scale invasion of Georgia while fighting in Ukraine right now.  

Sure, if he walked through Ukraine, Moldova was probably next and then maybe Georgia after that, but he's running out of targets due to the expansion from the west.  Now he actually pushed that expansion further with this mistake.  Him being humiliated, along with significant losses to his military has also limited his options and probably has put him on shakier ground in terms of remaining in power too.  So, about his only play now is to stay in eastern Ukraine and hold the line at all costs.

[romad1]

Poland, would you like ATACMS to say loan your slavic brothers across the way?

BTW, Belarus has been getting off pretty easy with their role in all this. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by romad1

[romad1]

6 hours ago, ewsieg said:

The lack of a response from the west is what didn't deter him from invading the rest of the country.  We still had Nukes close to him and like you said, he made sure not to hit a NATO country.  In likely as quick as a year take Sweden and Finland off of the list of countries he could attack.  Georgia is probably the only other vulnerable country right now.  Russia, at least with the losses we are attributing to them, could not do a full scale invasion of Georgia while fighting in Ukraine right now.  

Sure, if he walked through Ukraine, Moldova was probably next and then maybe Georgia after that, but he's running out of targets due to the expansion from the west.  Now he actually pushed that expansion further with this mistake.  Him being humiliated, along with significant losses to his military has also limited his options and probably has put him on shakier ground in terms of remaining in power too.  So, about his only play now is to stay in eastern Ukraine and hold the line at all costs.

I have told my friends and coworkers and bosses that if i win the Poweball my project will be to fund an armed insurrection against Putin for all his fuckery in the World. 

[romad1]

Just now, romad1 said:

I have told my friends and coworkers and bosses that if i win the Poweball my project will be to fund an armed insurrection against Putin for all his fuckery in the World. 

Originally this was a movie idea about a heist to recover the Super bowl ring Putin stole from Robert Kraft.