romad1 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 another blow for privacy rights Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) Patreaus on his view of the most likely NATO response to a Russian use of a tactical nuke: Quote “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea.” Probably not enough - but it would be start. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus Edited October 3, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 I would like that as a proactive action not a reactive response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 So, much earlier in the conflict there was fair amount of commentary about what kinds of circumstances could lead to the collapse of an army, but when it didn't happen to either side immediately it sort of faded from media consciousness, but a lot of what was described then looks like it may be happening now. I would imagine like everything else in the Russian media fantasy land, it didn't dawn on them that once the relatively small number of professionals in the Russian army got their units cut up and the preponderance of the remaining troops were conscripts and home guard, that the confluence of incompetence and complete lack of fighting motivation could only lead to cascading failure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Knowing full well that we may have years of this war ahead of us, it is interesting now to see this thread where the end game appears to be possible. He may well be overthrown by his generals, his intelligence agencies, his oligarchs. He'll throw a lot of them out of windows first, but continue to threaten everyone with nuclear war and lose horribly on the battlefield with no potential exit. Yeah, there are scenarios I can see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 31 minutes ago, romad1 said: Maybe if people start lining up on at least two sides that's progress. There has to be some orgainzing principle for the pushers before anybody can get pushed over. I suppose we might say - well, what if someone even more right wing gets control? - but I would bet even if they do come at Putin from the right, if one or group does win through, their first priority will still have to be to pivot to restablize the Russian state and it will be obvious to anyone who wasn't Putin that they can't do that while bleeding out in Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Maybe if people start lining up on at least two sides that's progress. There has to be some orgainzing principle for the pushers before anybody can get pushed over. I suppose we might say - well, what if someone even more right wing gets control? - but I would bet even if they do come at Putin from the right, if one or group does win through, their first priority will still have to be to pivot to restablize the Russian state and it will be obvious to anyone who wasn't Putin that they can't do that while bleeding out in Ukraine. Prigorzhin is a horrible person and he would be worse than Putin. We do not want. Putin's stooges in Shoigu and Gerasimov are just dumb and awful. We do not want smart and awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, romad1 said: Prigorzhin is a horrible person and he would be worse than Putin. We do not want. Putin's stooges in Shoigu and Gerasimov are just dumb and awful. We do not want smart and awful. of course the Russians also seem to have a way with the bad guys rising to power behind guys that look much more promising who are then shunted aside once the stake is well driven through the old regime's heart. Kerensky - Yelstin paved the way for Lenin and Putin...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 (edited) Reminder...we have a problem with Prigozhin https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/counterintelligence/yevgeniy-viktorovich-prigozhin Edited October 6, 2022 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, romad1 said: Reminder...we have a problem with Prigozhin https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/counterintelligence/yevgeniy-viktorovich-prigozhin too bad the FBI's scruples don't run to 'dead or alive' on the bounty. I guess we only do that for black flaggers. 🤷♀️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: too bad the FBI's scruples don't run to 'dead or alive' on the bounty. I guess we only do that for black flaggers. 🤷♀️ That's a legal nicety involving Title 50 of the US Code. If we declare a foreign politician like that it requires certain US military responses. While I would support that, I don't imagine the people who live in US cities would enjoy the retaliation which might lower their property values. Edited October 6, 2022 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Wow that is some video. So that's what "detained" looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Just when I felt like I was confident of being on the right side. This comes along and I get worried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Now I feel better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, romad1 said: Just when I felt like I was confident of being on the right side. This comes along and I get worried. I hate seeing my country lip off about regime change for other countries, especially when we are thisclose to regime change our own selves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 (edited) Kerch bridge hit. Section of auto span in the water, fuel train on the rail span on fire. If that burns long/hot enough it will cause structural damage. Edited October 8, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Kerch bridge hit. Section of auto span in the water, fuel train on the rail span on fire. If that burns long/hot enough it will cause structural damage. The reaction to this has been interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 a struck dog is barking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 (edited) Morning after videos show that rail section has not collapsed 🙁 https://twitter.com/LucaBianchetto/status/1578708463026606081 Edited October 8, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 (edited) the most coherent explanation I have seen is a remotely or autonomously guided submersible that blew itself up under the span. Strategically, it would have been much more devastating to have dropped a section of the rail bridge, but the psychological impact of this should be shattering enough -- for the time being. Or just this.... Edited October 8, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Theiner's persuaded Kerch was another long range missle attack. Of course US still claims we have not provided ATACMS, but that's not the same as denying we have supplied various pieces the Ukranians could cobble into a long range weapon themselves. If the latter is true, then the question is what is their production capacity? Do Saki and Kerch represent that they have only been able to produce a minimal number of weapons, or is the issue that they are ATACMS but US has to sign off on each use? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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