gehringer_2 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 (edited) The blackening on the remaining bridge deck would indicate a strike from above, roughly dead center into the collapsed section to the left. If the edges of a large hole are present in the two ends of the deck in the water that would pretty much prove the story. Edited October 8, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Uh oh, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 G2, I cannot speculate on the bridge attack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, romad1 said: G2, I cannot speculate on the bridge attack. sure, understood. These are just bits that are already out there of course.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 so interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, romad1 said: so interesting This needs to be spoken more loudly and clearly. By China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Theiner's persuaded Kerch was another long range missle attack. Of course US still claims we have not provided ATACMS, but that's not the same as denying we have supplied various pieces the Ukranians could cobble into a long range weapon themselves. If the latter is true, then the question is what is their production capacity? Do Saki and Kerch represent that they have only been able to produce a minimal number of weapons, or is the issue that they are ATACMS but US has to sign off on each use? A few more of these will be devastating to Russia's war footing. Specifically making the Kerch Bridge completely inoperable. In addition to the psychology that the bridge is within range I mean... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: This needs to be spoken more loudly and clearly. By China. they won't say it out loud because it would be positive PR for US leadership and we are in too adversarial a posture with China for that to happen. I don't actually care too much what they say, as long as they are not supplying material support. Likewise I'm sure China isn't thrilled with OPEC trying to raise prices either, but XI will swallow whatever price increases follow rather than present any kind of unified front with us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 But they are also extremely calculated in whatever move/ statement they make. If they are thinking clearly... regardless of the competitive relationship with the U.S. ... Then they clearly know that it is better for Russia to halt all hostilities. Forget the U.S.'s position... China benefits itself by speaking more loudly and clearly that they want an end to this, and that they do NOT support Russia's war against Ukraine. Quite conversely, China is affected in multiple deleterious ways with a war that continues to drag on... Just my 2 cents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 I guess he can't be ambassador to Russia now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: But they are also extremely calculated in whatever move/ statement they make. If they are thinking clearly... regardless of the competitive relationship with the U.S. ... Then they clearly know that it is better for Russia to halt all hostilities. Forget the U.S.'s position... China benefits itself by speaking more loudly and clearly that they want an end to this, and that they do NOT support Russia's war against Ukraine. Quite conversely, China is affected in multiple deleterious ways with a war that continues to drag on... Just my 2 cents. I used to hold that the under the bluster the Chinese tended to be very rational actors, and that overall the Chinese leadership since Deng was basically interested in the welfare of their population, which led them to be big on things that were extremely irritating like intellectual property theft, industrial espionage and currency/trade manipulation but generally did not include being a bad actor on the international stage because they didn't particularly care to even be engaged. But as Xi transitions into your garden variety imperialist cult of personality tyrant, I've pretty much tossed those assumptions away. All tyrants ultimately converge to the same playbook, which of course is "whatever insures I'm as firmly in control tomorrow as I am today." Any and all other values expressed in the state's conduct become subordinate or transactional to that overall imperative. And pretty much every tyrant sees the value in fomenting resentments against outside powers and thus will act to put themselves in opposition to the general international order. So long story short, with Xi I think we are past the point where we can assume he is interested in acting in China's best interests. He acts solely in his own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 I don't believe that to be true. Their entire society - from the very top to the very bottom - is infected with the belief that China will supersede the U.S. as both the #1 economic as well as military power in the world. So yes... Xi is self-interested. In being the supreme dictator, in usurping the U.S., in maintaining his own power/ power-base... However... China usurping the U.S. feeds directly into the maintenance of his power. So... the two (both dictator and country) are perfectly aligned. He wants Russia to stop because (A) if Russia ruins itself by slamming its head repeatedly against a NATO/ EU/ US wall... he's just lost a military partner (B) If Russia falls apart because Putin has disgraced himself... he loses a military/ counterweight power to the US's influence (C) If Russia actually goes nuclear, then they will become such a pariah that Xi will be forced to distance himself from that debacle. No one will go near that 10 foot pole and that includes China. (D) I can probably list a few more reasons why an expedient end to this war benefits China... and Xi... So that is where I am coming from. He needs to exert more overt pressure on Putin to stop this. On the other hand...: (A) Russia is forced to pander to China (Read: Sell dirt cheap oil & gas because no one else will purchase (I'm exaggerating but... not much...)). (B) ... Russia becomes China's bitch ??? Bottom line: I believe China would rather have a Russia that is not a nuclear pariah, not falling apart at the seams, and still has some semblance of military power that is not completely discredited and shredded to insignificance. Just my 2 cents... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: I don't believe that to be true. Their entire society - from the very top to the very bottom - is infected with the belief that China will supersede the U.S. as both the #1 economic as well as military power in the world. So yes... Xi is self-interested. In being the supreme dictator, in usurping the U.S., in maintaining his own power/ power-base... However... China usurping the U.S. feeds directly into the maintenance of his power. So... the two (both dictator and country) are perfectly aligned. He wants Russia to stop because (A) if Russia ruins itself by slamming its head repeatedly against a NATO/ EU/ US wall... he's just lost a military partner (B) If Russia falls apart because Putin has disgraced himself... he loses a military/ counterweight power to the US's influence (C) If Russia actually goes nuclear, then they will become such a pariah that Xi will be forced to distance himself from that debacle. No one will go near that 10 foot pole and that includes China. (D) I can probably list a few more reasons why an expedient end to this war benefits China... and Xi... So that is where I am coming from. He needs to exert more overt pressure on Putin to stop this. On the other hand...: (A) Russia is forced to pander to China (Read: Sell dirt cheap oil & gas because no one else will purchase (I'm exaggerating but... not much...)). (B) ... Russia becomes China's bitch ??? Bottom line: I believe China would rather have a Russia that is not a nuclear pariah, not falling apart at the seams, and still has some semblance of military power that is not completely discredited and shredded to insignificance. Just my 2 cents... No question that for both Russia and China, it is their current relationship to the US that drives them together and agreed that China sees no value in a Russia that neuters itself as that eliminates its value as another counterweight to the US. But whereas Putin's opposition to "the West" is Messianic, Xi's is transactional. Xi's problem with the US is that we are an obstacle in his path. If we would get out of his way (so to speak) he'd lose interest in needing Russia as additional counterweight. That's obviously unlikely to happen but I make the point to argue that Xi's issue with the US is not so fundamental as is Putin's. If the US were willing to take an 'elder economic statesmen' sort of backseat to Chinese economic dominance, sort like England peacefully surrendered its status as leading world military power to the US in the 20th century, I think Xi would have no problem with us. The Chinese want to play in the world as the West has put it together right up the point of wanting to win in it. But to be against the West is Putin's raison d'être, to break the West is the totality of his world view and ambition. The Chinese aren't so interested in that. This may set a limit to how deep the alliance between China and Russia can ultimately be. There was an interesting piece done back in March at the 'war on the rock' webpage that lays out more or less this line of argument. Also points out that Xi is in the generation of Chinese party princelings that got a very Russo-philic education in the 50/60's and that it is part of what attracts him personally to Russia. A lot of other good stuff in the essay though - including that, both Russia and China expect a double cross from the other whenever expedient, as that has been the historical norm. ; ) China’s Strategic Assessment of Russia: More Complicated Than You Think - War on the Rocks Edited October 9, 2022 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 I agree with that...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Russia is cranky after a drunk and sad weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 3 hours ago, romad1 said: Russia is cranky after a drunk and sad weekend When you create a propaganda state and then live in it long enough, you start to believe your own garbage is the reality. These attacks were stupid at any strategic level because as Lee says, they will do nothing to improve the Russian situation on the actual battlefield, plus it will surely catalyze the upgrading of Ukraine's capabilities on that battlefield in major ways. Much like the destruction of the pipelines, Russia focuses their energy on the symbolic aspect of an act while ignoring the concrete results the act will produce. Losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 4 hours ago, romad1 said: Russia is cranky after a drunk and sad weekend Ukraine needs to follow the same script they did with the Antonovsky bridge - hit it again as soon as the Russians put another munitions train on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: When you create a propaganda state and then live in it long enough, you start to believe your own garbage is the reality. These attacks were stupid at any strategic level because as Lee says, they will do nothing to improve the Russian situation on the actual battlefield, plus it will surely catalyze the upgrading of Ukraine's capabilities on that battlefield in major ways. Much like the destruction of the pipelines, Russia focuses their energy on the symbolic aspect of an act while ignoring the concrete results the act will produce. Losers. Not disagreeing that they suck and are bad at this... but, scarily to consider...How many votes do they need to take back the US House of Representatives and install their stooges as defacto Speaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 On 10/8/2022 at 7:49 PM, romad1 said: so interesting Xi seems like a smart man. Even if he is wildly arrogant, craven, power hungry as a person, he is still smart and strategic. I have to think he now looks at Russia's War in Ukraine as a stupid, strategic move, motivated solely by one man's own arrogance and ego. Xi might be arrogant and egomaniacal himself, but he doesn't generally let that get in the way of good strategy and tactic it seems. Xi realizes that Putin's war is disrupting all sorts of things in the broader economy and is also being seen as a public relations embarrassment given that one of the guys on his side, Putin, is losing badly. I know China gets significant natural resources from Russia, namely oil, natural gas, and minerals, so he'll never fully pull the plug on Russia. But is there a reality where he pulls the plug on Putin, while still supporting Russia? Would he be angry, bold and brazen enough to make a move to support the ousting of Putin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: But is there a reality where he pulls the plug on Putin, while still supporting Russia? Would he be angry, bold and brazen enough to make a move to support the ousting of Putin? I think if you are XI, it's easiest to just play out the hand. You don't have to do anything - take Putins oil at a discount, don't give him any material support and when the war ends you are still whole. The West isn't going to sanction China just for buying Russian oil. Xi would certainly rather save Putin from himself - he prefers Russia as a strategic power that divides US military attention. If Putin succeeds in destroying Russian military power to where the Balts, Poland, Ukraine and Scandinavia don't even need US support to secure Europe for themselves, that's a worst case scenario for Xi. But it's not clear to me how much influence he or anyone can have on Putin's behavior. In the extreme case, China could stop buying Russian hyddrocarbons, which could well bring down the Russian government, but I just have a hard time seeing China passing up so much commercial advantage for any 'politics'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Xi seems like a smart man. Even if he is wildly arrogant, craven, power hungry as a person, he is still smart and strategic. I have to think he now looks at Russia's War in Ukraine as a stupid, strategic move, motivated solely by one man's own arrogance and ego. Xi might be arrogant and egomaniacal himself, but he doesn't generally let that get in the way of good strategy and tactic it seems. Xi realizes that Putin's war is disrupting all sorts of things in the broader economy and is also being seen as a public relations embarrassment given that one of the guys on his side, Putin, is losing badly. I know China gets significant natural resources from Russia, namely oil, natural gas, and minerals, so he'll never fully pull the plug on Russia. But is there a reality where he pulls the plug on Putin, while still supporting Russia? Would he be angry, bold and brazen enough to make a move to support the ousting of Putin? In most things I think Xi is reading the Party Congress waiting for his coronation for his third term. That should be happening soon. China's National Day/week is just about over. Edit: that begins on 16/OCT Edited October 10, 2022 by romad1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: When you create a propaganda state and then live in it long enough, you start to believe your own garbage is the reality. These attacks were stupid at any strategic level because as Lee says, they will do nothing to improve the Russian situation on the actual battlefield, plus it will surely catalyze the upgrading of Ukraine's capabilities on that battlefield in major ways. Much like the destruction of the pipelines, Russia focuses their energy on the symbolic aspect of an act while ignoring the concrete results the act will produce. Losers. Germany should be sending its first IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine within the week... And the US has two NASAM's going there within the month I believe. And Putin is stupid. I agree with your other comment: bomb the Kerch (too lazy to type out the full russian name... I'ma justa going to keep calling it Kerch) Bridge again, as soon as they possibly can. If they can hit another tanker train, directly, I think the resulting "selfie" videos we've seen over the past week will be even more spectacular...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: I think if you are XI, it's easiest to just play out the hand. You don't have to do anything - take Putins oil at a discount, don't give him any material support and when the war ends you are still whole. The West isn't going to sanction China just for buying Russian oil. Xi would certainly rather save Putin from himself - he prefers Russia as a strategic power that divides US military attention. If Putin succeeds in destroying Russian military power to where the Balts, Poland, Ukraine and Scandinavia don't even need US support to secure Europe for themselves, that's a worst case scenario for Xi. But it's not clear to me how much influence he or anyone can have on Putin's behavior. In the extreme case, China could stop buying Russian hyddrocarbons, which could well bring down the Russian government, but I just have a hard time seeing China passing up so much commercial advantage for any 'politics'. That why I both agree with what you've stated her as well as my earlier comment that Xi should speak more loudly and clearly that he wants this "ended now". Not that he could directly affect Putin's decision-making... But the clarion call would rattle the Kremlin soundly methinks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said: That why I both agree with what you've stated her as well as my earlier comment that Xi should speak more loudly and clearly that he wants this "ended now". Not that he could directly affect Putin's decision-making... But the clarion call would rattle the Kremlin soundly methinks... It surely wouldn't hurt. It would probably give him more cover if maybe India made a stronger move first - you know it will really kill Xi to have to appear in the US 'camp' on anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It surely wouldn't hurt. It would probably give him more cover if maybe India made a stronger move first - you know it will really kill Xi to have to appear in the US 'camp' on anything Hahaha! Yeah... that most likely is what is staying his hand...! Or public voice in this case... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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