Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Looks like we have something like a Karla

 

There is also a reference to a Bill Haydon situation.

[1984Echoes]

On 11/16/2022 at 4:39 PM, ewsieg said:

... I don't agree with Screwball on his stance with Ukraine, but he does state some legitimate facts...

Really?

Please give some examples of this. I would be interested in what you think is a "legitimate fact".

[romad1]

The Putin caucus in congress appears to have their knives out for NATO.

[romad1]

8 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

There is also a reference to a Bill Haydon situation.

That cad

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, romad1 said:

 

Yeah…

No collusion.

You’re the collusion.

[ewsieg]

14 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Really?

Please give some examples of this. I would be interested in what you think is a "legitimate fact".

He pointed out that it's a relatively small country that outside of the opportunity that presented itself of having a proxy war with Russia came this year, it had very little benefit to the US. Additionally he pointed out this has a bigger affect on the world.  So...

Ukraine, on the grand scheme of things is a small and corrupt country.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-corrupt-countries
Corruption ranking is similar to Russia and Belarus

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA
Ukraine GDP ~ 100 billion

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-food-shortage-bad-to-worse-un-world-food-programme-102938562.html

"Rising global food prices brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and commodity shortages triggered by climate emergencies are threatening to “destabilize” economies around the world, a United Nations (U.N.) official warned."

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12092

"Sanctions that isolate Russia are a shock to the global economy, which was still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The sanctions have likely contributed to disruptions in global supply chains, higher global commodity prices, and a slowdown in global economic growth."

*******

And again, you can choose to ignore or stipulate what I feel I posted as facts.  You can even choose to accept them and believe that despite the above concerns, the benefit of what we're doing in Ukraine is worth it.  Please just don't pretend like this is a Win/win for every 'good guy' in the world and a 'lose/lose' for only the evil empire.  

[romad1]

29 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

He pointed out that it's a relatively small country that outside of the opportunity that presented itself of having a proxy war with Russia came this year, it had very little benefit to the US. Additionally he pointed out this has a bigger affect on the world.  So...

Ukraine, on the grand scheme of things is a small and corrupt country.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-corrupt-countries
Corruption ranking is similar to Russia and Belarus

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA
Ukraine GDP ~ 100 billion

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-food-shortage-bad-to-worse-un-world-food-programme-102938562.html

"Rising global food prices brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and commodity shortages triggered by climate emergencies are threatening to “destabilize” economies around the world, a United Nations (U.N.) official warned."

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12092

"Sanctions that isolate Russia are a shock to the global economy, which was still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The sanctions have likely contributed to disruptions in global supply chains, higher global commodity prices, and a slowdown in global economic growth."

*******

And again, you can choose to ignore or stipulate what I feel I posted as facts.  You can even choose to accept them and believe that despite the above concerns, the benefit of what we're doing in Ukraine is worth it.  Please just don't pretend like this is a Win/win for every 'good guy' in the world and a 'lose/lose' for only the evil empire.  

She was asking for it

[1984Echoes]

So in other words, Ukraine is a small and insignificant country and therefore has no right to self-determination. Therefore, it is perfectly acceptable to be subjugated and exterminated by Russia if it so wishes, per you and Screwball. Gotcha.

I believe in the truth that all men are created equal and have inalienable rights to self-determination, freedom, and the pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness. And GDP/ level of corruption do not countermand that truth. Interesting to know that you two believe the opposite. 

Funny thing is, you quoted your own demise: "Rising global food prices brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine... are threatening to destabilize economies around the world."

In other words: Ukraine's grain sales to the world prevent hunger. They actually matter. Russia's war of genocide matters in the rise of global food prices and destabilized economies. Which is the opposite of your contention that Ukraine does not matter.

I find the politics of you two to be despicable. Contemptible.

IMO.

[gehringer_2]

to a large extent this a comparison of problems with much different time scale solutions. Economies can bounce back and be built up by the quarter. The planets align to provide an opportunity like this to help free a  population from tyranical government and incorporate it to the 'West' (a poor term but for lack of better shorthand..)  maybe once every few decades. 

As I write the above I am immediately skeptical of it's neo-con tilt, but TBF, the neo-con program for Iraq didn't fail for it's concept as much as for its projection of a cultural framework onto Iraqi society that was too different from what was actually there. One assumes that being less culturally distant, we comprehend what we are doing in Ukraine more clearly. We hope.

[ewsieg]

 

14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I find the politics of you two to be despicable. Contemptible.

IMO.

This is the problem.  Merely pointing out that there is a cost to this war and pointing out some examples like the UN says could destabilize economies around the world, is offensive to you.  (Note - take a look at what history at what happens to governments that can't feed their people).  If you paid attention I have stated that I currently support what we are doing in Ukraine.  Right now, the benefit outweighs the cost, in my mind.  But I hope we have leaders that will continue to look for an offramp and be cognizant that the benefit may not always outweigh the cost.  

I don't remember you bitching when Biden pulled us out of Afghanistan.  What's the difference?  Oh, Ukrainians are white.... I got it.

 

[romad1]

I'm not seeing much value to these arguments.  I'm for human rights.  I can only fight for those in so many places at once.  

[Screwball]

2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I'm not seeing much value to these arguments.  I'm for human rights.  I can only fight for those in so many places at once.  

That's about the funniest fucking things I have ever read here.  How many people are dead because of American imperialism under the PNAC killing for profit criminals you so adore?  Give me a fucking break Gomer.  You should be in a padded cell.

[ewsieg]

3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

But I hope we have leaders that will continue to look for an offramp and be cognizant that the benefit may not always outweigh the cost.  

To follow up on what I said in my original post about agreeing with you on our stance in Ukraine now too, I hope our leaders will know when further support may be needed and move in that direction if it's deemed the best too.

Arab Spring comes to mind.  While we didn't arm it like we are doing with Ukraine, we had foreign policy that helped push countries to participate in it as it was for a just cause.  I'd argue the direct benefits to the US would be far greater with a democratic middle east than whatever Russia could do to us, outside of mutual destruction.  

That backfired.  It was absolutely a good cause, but it backfired.  So just because something seems like the morally right thing to do, it doesn't mean that's how it's going to turn out.  That said, many folks felt that if the US did take a bigger role in Arab Spring, we'd have a different turnout.  

[romad1]

8 minutes ago, Screwball said:

That's about the funniest fucking things I have ever read here.  How many people are dead because of American imperialism under the PNAC killing for profit criminals you so adore?  Give me a fucking break Gomer.  You should be in a padded cell.

Ignore

[romad1]

57 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

to a large extent this a comparison of problems with much different time scale solutions. Economies can bounce back and be built up by the quarter. The planets align to provide an opportunity like this to help free a  population from tyranical government and incorporate it to the 'West' (a poor term but for lack of better shorthand..)  maybe once every few decades. 

As I write the above I am immediately skeptical of it's neo-con tilt, but TBF, the neo-con program for Iraq didn't fail for it's concept as much as for its projection of a cultural framework onto Iraqi society that was too different from what was actually there. One assumes that being less culturally distant, we comprehend what we are doing in Ukraine more clearly. We hope.

I was listening to a co-worker describe how his liaison partner (a senior member of the security services of an Eastern European country) was describing the US Embassy as something the guy would look at during the Soviet era with a lot of pain in his heart.  He'd see the American flag flying above that embassy and he knew that the US was at least a place where you could dispute the bosses when they were wrong, where you wouldn't be shot for failure or be taken away in the middle of the night.   I gather that this guy got the very flag that was flying over that embassy as a token of appreciation in a ceremony when he retired. 

[ewsieg]

21 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I'm not seeing much value to these arguments.  I'm for human rights.  I can only fight for those in so many places at once.  

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.  You have changed my position.  I would like to announce that I'm running for POTUS in 2024.  My platform is simple, basic human rights need to be the priority.  Self determination, collective security and the rule of law have been solid investments for civilization.  As such, all focus should be there.

Day 1, I'd end all entitlements.  This would free up money to allow a 300% increase in defense spending, allowing us to be in more places at once, which would provide a solid investment for civilization.  I have everyone's votes?

[romad1]

4 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.  You have changed my position.  I would like to announce that I'm running for POTUS in 2024.  My platform is simple, basic human rights need to be the priority.  Self determination, collective security and the rule of law have been solid investments for civilization.  As such, all focus should be there.

Day 1, I'd end all entitlements.  This would free up money to allow a 300% increase in defense spending, allowing us to be in more places at once, which would provide a solid investment for civilization.  I have everyone's votes?

Or, we could be in the right places at once.   We withdrew from Afghanistan because it was unsupportable.   The US is a naval power.   Lacking strong alliances and a coastline we could not sustain our support for the Afghan government.  The Pakistanis are the closest ally of China.  They f'd us over too many times during the GWOT.  Central Asian countries are under Putin's thumb.   Ukraine and Taiwan are much surer places to build the bulwarks of democracy.

But go ahead and keep chirping.

[1984Echoes]

25 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

....  

I don't remember you bitching when Biden pulled us out of Afghanistan.  What's the difference?  Oh, Ukrainians are white.... I got it.

 

Ukrainians are white? That's your reasoning?

I find that offensive in the extreme.

We spent nearly 20 years in Afghanistan. And I was completely for rebuilding that country and giving them a decent chance to build a real nation that protects its citizens and offers the right to vote and self-determination. We spent $2.3 trillion and 2,456 American lives, and 20 years trying to give Afghanistan a chance. I have never made one issue in the attempt to build a real government, not in years, lives, or cost... and was hoping that it would be a success story. Always. Go ahead and find any post that contradicts that because you won't. They don't exist.

But I didn't bitch when we pulled out of Afghanistan because they aren't white enough. GFY.

BTW: We pulled out of Afghanistan because their corruption forever polluted our attempts to hand them a viable government. Because the country could not break it's population from the sway of the Taliban or the heroine industry.

So President Trump signed an agreement with the Taliban to leave Afghanistan (get your facts straight). I didn't make an issue of leaving Afghanistan when Trump signed that agreement because it was time. Enough years, wealth, and American lives spent on a futile effort to provide a different form of government than what the Taliban would offer. I didn't complain in February 2021 (when we were suppose to leave under Trump's agreement ) when Biden delayed the departure because his generals specifically requested more time to prepare. I didn't complain when Biden said we were leaving NOW in August of that year since our "Intelligence" had failed and it wasn't going to take a year or two for the Taliban to overrun US-trained Afghani forces, the Taliban were just sweeping them aside (or they were just dropping their weapons and running home...). It was an emergency evacuation due to an Intelligence-error. And I didn't bitch about the chaotic departure because that's what happens when intelligence fails. See Saigon, Vietnam.

But Biden & his administration kept in contact with the Taliban throughout the chaos, and was able to remove US citizens with a minimum amount of issues in the face of the complete and total failure of Afghani troops and the complete takeover by the Taliban. I'm sure their may be some additional Afghani's, who may have even had US citizenship, that we were unable to free from the Taliban as they refused to allow them to leave. I have no details on that.

Aside from that, those are the facts.

[ewsieg]

7 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Or, we could be in the right places at once.   We withdrew from Afghanistan because it was unsupportable.   The US is a naval power.   Lacking strong alliances and a coastline we could not sustain our support for the Afghan government.  The Pakistanis are the closest ally of China.  They f'd us over too many times during the GWOT.  Central Asian countries are under Putin's thumb.   Ukraine and Taiwan are much surer places to build the bulwarks of democracy.

But go ahead and keep chirping.

You're right that holding Afghanistan was a much harder task, but it was supportable... at a cost.  It almost sounds like you're saying that the benefit didn't outweigh the cost in Afghanistan, but that it does in Ukraine because the circumstances are different.  Facts such as Ukraine had already established a democracy, shaky as it might be, a democracy nonetheless and that it had trained soldiers in it's army differentiate it immensely from Afghanistan.  

Note - the original response I wanted to give to this was to pull up a video of someone being stoned to death in Afghanistan with a snarky comment.

[ewsieg]

18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Ukrainians are white? That's your reasoning?

It was a joke, figured you'd see through that.  I should have known better as we actually agree on what our policies currently are in Ukraine but me just stating my reservations is enough for you to believe I'm truly despicable.

18 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

BTW: We pulled out of Afghanistan because their corruption forever polluted our attempts to hand them a viable government. Because the country could not break it's population from the sway of the Taliban or the heroine industry.

Yes, because when weighing the cost of staying there and waiting for possibly decades more before we could possibly build them to that point to the benefit we'd get out of it, we chose to get out. 

And since facts are important to you, Biden had just as much say in the final call that was made to remove troops as Trump did.  Was this Trump's deal, yes, absolutely.  But it was a deal that US already felt the Taliban was breaking by supporting terrorists before Biden pulled the trigger.  Looks like our intelligence happened to be right about it when we killed al-Zawihri.  Biden had no obligation to stick to it, but he chose to.

 

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

...

And since facts are important to you, Biden had just as much say in the final call that was made to remove troops as Trump did.  Was this Trump's deal, yes, absolutely.  But it was a deal that US already felt the Taliban was breaking by supporting terrorists before Biden pulled the trigger.  Looks like our intelligence happened to be right about it when we killed al-Zawihri.  Biden had no obligation to stick to it, but he chose to.

 

Biden was absolutely going to pull out, I don't think there was any other possibility aside from that. I don't think anyone disagreed with that. Of course he was going to make the call to remove troops.

It was a shit-show because his generals (not being able to move fast enough in February) and intelligence (total failure on Taliban-takeover timeline) failed the country, and Biden... leaving him with Vietnam-situation that forced his hand.

If his generals could have moved faster and we pulled out in February, or March or April... the messy part could have been avoided...

[Screwball]

She might be a nutjob, but she's right.  From The Hill.

Marjorie Taylor Greene unveils resolution to audit Ukraine aid funds

Where exactly is all this money (to one of the most corrupt countries in the world) and these weapons going?  I've already read some of the weapons have ended up on the black market. Some of us remember the Stinger missiles that went missing in the middle east in our 20 year blunder there.  I know, this time it's different.

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Biden was absolutely going to pull out, I don't think there was any other possibility aside from that.

Outside of the fact that the Taliban already had violated the agreement which would allow him other possibilities.

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think anyone disagreed with that.

Correct, I mean outside of the advice of his military that wanted him to stay and roughly 30-40% of Afghani's that did not want to be subject to Taliban rule (of which many helped fight against).

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

It was a shit-show because his generals (not being able to move fast enough in February) and intelligence (total failure on Taliban-takeover timeline) failed the country, and Biden... leaving him with Vietnam-situation that forced his hand.

Ahh, ok, you've talked yourself into a way where you realize you can't blame it all on Trump, but your head would explode at the thought that Biden had any role in it, so it's the fault of intelligence and the military which didn't want to leave because of such concerns.  Got it.

[1984Echoes]

38 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Outside of the fact that the Taliban already had violated the agreement which would allow him other possibilities.

Correct, I mean outside of the advice of his military that wanted him to stay and roughly 30-40% of Afghani's that did not want to be subject to Taliban rule (of which many helped fight against).

Ahh, ok, you've talked yourself into a way where you realize you can't blame it all on Trump, but your head would explode at the thought that Biden had any role in it, so it's the fault of intelligence and the military which didn't want to leave because of such concerns.  Got it.

A) Noone cared about the Taliban violating the agreement. We knew they were going to do that anyways. So... moot point. Trump wanted to pull out in December, before the agreed upon February pull-out date and even knowing the Taliban were violating the agreement, he didn't care. We were coming out of Afghanistan regardless because... no. one. cared.

B) Again, don't care. We spent 20 years, 2.3 trillion, and 2,456 American lives on propping up a dysfunctional Afghani government that FAILED. No one CARES what the military wanted, and I hate the thought of 30-40% of Afghani's being forced into a Taliban government, but we GAVE THEM 20 Years of chances. What is YOUR solution? Another 20 years, 2.3 trillion, and 2,456 American lives. What is you POINT here, exactly?

C) It was ALWAYS an intelligence failure. What don't you get about the Taliban sweeping through the country in less than 30 days versus intelligence's estimate of between 1 to 2 years? Of COURSE Biden made the decision to get out, at the time he did, I've never said otherwise. And why would I want anything OTHER than Biden to get us out of Afghanistan? I've said multiple times and in multiple ways, it was well past time to get out. But since I only deal in facts: It was Trump's deal. Biden's generals specifically asked for a delay from the February deadline because they needed more time to pull everything out (American equipment, etc...) AND the pandemic was complicating things I believe. I absolutely wanted Biden to get us out of Afghanistan, it was well past time to do so; 95% of America wanted us out because we ALL were fatigued. Intelligence said we'd have 1 to 2 years to make the final move, that didn't happen. Biden said we're getting out when the country fell apart on a Taliban sweep of Afghani forces.

Those are all facts. So what's your problem?

Or are you criticizing simply because you're looking for ANY reason to criticize Biden...? Oh, THAT's it!!! You have a fetish for Biden. Using any illegitimate means possible. Disingenuous.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

It was ALWAYS an intelligence failure.

I'd put a bit of nuance on my take of this. It was an intelligence question but it was not in terms of intelligence gathering or knowing what the Afghan army had vs the Taliban - the technical capabilities analysis was probably fine. It was a more fundamental failure of analysis in not considering what the motivation of an army is/was. The Afghan army could have held out for many month, if they had wanted to. But why would they want to when they knew defeat was inevitable once our support (primarily air) was gone. An army only does that if they have somewhere to go into exile in hope of a change in their support base, say a friendly regime across the next border (as the Taliban had in Pakistan when we initially 'defeated' them in 2001/2). The Afghan army didn't have that. They knew their cause was lost, it would be irrational to keep fighting just for the sake of American political PR issues. In retrospect this truth is so obvious it seems absurd we didn't see it staring us in the face.

Edited November 19, 2022 by gehringer_2