1984Echoes Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: I'd put a bit of nuance on my take of this. It was an intelligence question but it was not in terms of intelligence gathering or knowing what the Afghan army had vs the Taliban - the technical capabilities analysis was probably fine. It was a more fundamental failure of analysis in not considering what the motivation of an army is/was. The Afghan army could have held out for many month, if they had wanted to. But why would they want to when they knew defeat was inevitable once our support (primarily air) was gone. An army only does that if they have somewhere to go into exile in hope of a change in their support base, say a friendly regime across the next border (as the Taliban had in Pakistan when we initially 'defeated' them in 2001/2). The Afghan army didn't have that. They knew their cause was lost, it would be irrational to keep fighting just for the sake of American political PR issues. In retrospect this truth is so obvious it seems absurd we didn't see it staring us in the face. I believe this is still a straight up intelligence failure. You can add all the nuances that you want to... And I don't disagree with anything you said. I would even boil it down to a very simple point: The Afghan military lacked the courage to fight for their country. Now, you could list the underlying causes as a lack of air support, lack of fallback safety zone (I disagree with that, if you want your country, you don't drop your weapons and retreat, you stand your ground. And most of Northeast Afghanistan is ethnic Tadjik... they shouldn't back down in their own territory...), it could be an overwhelming sense of fear of the Taliban, or of inevitability... But as for the intelligence point: It can NOT just be technical capabilities analysis. It HAS to include fighting spirit or heart or whatever you want to call it. If US Intelligence never takes the temperature of the population... then how the F can they make any judgement calls on the success or failure of any military opponent or ally? There's something wrong with them if they are overlooking that. And I think they did that with Ukraine as well. Before the war even started I said Ukraine would fight tooth and nail against the Russians. They weren't going to give up damn anything without throwing everything they had to stop them. I have a small inkling of the Ukrainian mindset due to... well, a few factors... I may have exaggerated stating that every man, woman, and child hated Russia and would fight against them but... not by a whole lot. But US Intelligence believes they would lose within a week? They need to start evaluating mindsets and emotional and intellectual competencies and national "spirit", if you will... Just my 2 cents... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: They need to start evaluating mindsets and emotional and intellectual competencies and national "spirit", if you will.. the problem is a basic conflict of interest. You can't very will spend billions standing up a force and then turn around and tell the guy visiting from DIA - "yeah - they're going to dissolve into thin air the minute we are gone." That ain't gonna happen! 😉 So it's almost inevitable our client armies will always be relatively overestimated. Actually I suppose the Iraqi army by now has maybe, sort of, almost, turned into a real independent operating force. And if you could somehow expunge 15+ years of the history and jump right from Saddam to today, you could argue Iraq is better off than it was in 1995 in terms of more or less being able to take care of itself and being a less despotic place despite the level of political chaos and even if it doesn't look much like anything Paul Wolfowitz or even Ahmed Chalabi ever envisioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 14 hours ago, Screwball said: She might be a nutjob, but she's right. From The Hill. Marjorie Taylor Greene unveils resolution to audit Ukraine aid funds Where exactly is all this money (to one of the most corrupt countries in the world) and these weapons going? I've already read some of the weapons have ended up on the black market. Some of us remember the Stinger missiles that went missing in the middle east in our 20 year blunder there. I know, this time it's different. That’s fine, go ahead and investigate and tighten up that pipeline, but Ukraine have to beat Russia, and we have to keep helping them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 4 hours ago, chasfh said: That’s fine, go ahead and investigate and tighten up that pipeline, but Ukraine have to beat Russia, and we have to keep helping them. Yes, lets normalize Crazy Marg and her work on behalf of Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Meanwhile to MTG's and Screwball's chagrin, the Ukrainians have hit Russia's pipeline it appears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Man, imagine how badly hurt the Trump family must be by all this war Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, romad1 said: Meanwhile to MTG's and Screwball's chagrin, the Ukrainians have hit Russia's pipeline it appears Another clear sign that Russia isn't actually losing this war /s Edited November 19, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Another clear sign that Russia isn't actually losing this war /s Don't these people know they are screwing with MTF poster's portfolios!@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 5 hours ago, romad1 said: Meanwhile to MTG's and Screwball's chagrin, the Ukrainians have hit Russia's pipeline it appears I don't think it's the Ukrainians... I think it's Russian Revolutionaries... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: I don't think it's the Ukrainians... I think it's Russian Revolutionaries... Or Russian government Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, romad1 said: Or Russian government or just incompetence. Reports about Bakhmut sound terrible. Amazing/depressing a population can be so cowed to just keep marching over the cliff. Reports of possible IRGC killings of protesters tonight are also depressing. Edited November 20, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 I think the worm has turned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said: I think the worm has turned. That's one form of collective security that I'm glad is collapsing. Armenia was pretty much the lap dog of Russia in their war with Azerbaijan. There is a sort of history of hissy fits among members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) 56 minutes ago, romad1 said: That's one form of collective security that I'm glad is collapsing. Armenia was pretty much the lap dog of Russia in their war with Azerbaijan. There is a sort of history of hissy fits among members. OTOH, just to be clear, Armenia isn't likely throwing a hissy fit because they have some scruples about what Russia is doing in Ukraine per se, it's only about Ukraine diverting Russian resouces that Armenia wants deployed in their battles with Azerbijan and Pashinyan angling to pressure Putin to maintain higher priority for supporting Armenia. Edited November 24, 2022 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 26 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: OTOH, just to be clear, Armenia isn't likely throwing a hissy fit because they have some scruples about what Russia is doing in Ukraine per se, it's only about Ukraine diverting Russian resouces that Armenia wants deployed in their battles with Azerbijan and Pashinyan angling to pressure Putin to maintain higher priority for supporting Armenia. Agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 54 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: OTOH, just to be clear, Armenia isn't likely throwing a hissy fit because they have some scruples about what Russia is doing in Ukraine per se, it's only about Ukraine diverting Russian resouces that Armenia wants deployed in their battles with Azerbijan and Pashinyan angling to pressure Putin to maintain higher priority for supporting Armenia. Spot on. Also, despite some claims that Russia is "winning" this war, it really speaks to the diminishing influence of Russia on the world stage... if Armenia of all countries do not find them to be a reliable partner, then likely nobody will at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 57 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Spot on. Also, despite some claims that Russia is "winning" this war, it really speaks to the diminishing influence of Russia on the world stage... if Armenia of all countries do not find them to be a reliable partner, then likely nobody will at this point. Only people who get paid by Russia or who are under their influence say Russia is winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) 37 minutes ago, romad1 said: Only people who get paid by Russia or who are under their influence say Russia is winning. Can you explain exactly how people who say Ukraine is not winning this war get paid by Russia, Gomer? Like how do they transfer the money? I can't seem to find the checks. Damn! Or under the influence? Do people have a hotline to Putin? Like direct T1 connection to share intelligence real fast? Maybe it's through Musk and Starlink - yea, maybe that's it. Please do tell. Oh, I forgot, I'm on your ignore list. Maybe someone can answer those questions - how am I (and many others) get paid and/or under the influence of Putin/Russia? Or is Gomer once again FOS. How's Ukraines electric grid doing by the way? Hard to win a war when you don't have an electrical grid that works. Edited November 24, 2022 by Screwball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Screwball said: ... how am I (and many others) get paid and/or under the influence of Putin/Russia? ... You're licking his boots. So obviously, you are under Putin's propaganda influence since you are incapable of distinguishing military facts versus Putin's stream of horseshit. BTW: How do Putin's boots taste? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: You're licking his boots. So obviously, you are under Putin's propaganda influence since you are incapable of distinguishing military facts versus Putin's stream of horseshit. BTW: How do Putin's boots taste? Abuse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 I think Screwballs might be slipping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 So you have nothing. That's what I figured. Please continue with your fantasies and insults. That's all you know. Oh, and I'm hardly slipping Gomer. I don't stoop to hiding behind an "ignore" button like a coward while taking potshots at someone I put on ignore. Do you have small hands too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Kinda interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 oh snap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, romad1 said: oh snap about time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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