Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

Hate to interrupt your pep rally, but winning comes with a cost:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Also note the estimated hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that were forced to relocate to Russia and are never coming back.

This winter will slow this war down.  There hopefully be attempts to revert back to 2021 borders at a negotiation table to avoid more bloodshed.

Any war has a cost.

You know, like...

The American Revolution.

[romad1]

39 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Any war has a cost.

You know, like...

The American Revolution.

A certain regime slaughtered a lot of people after the war was already determined to be "lost" 

They did so because they felt they could negotiate using the lives of that ethno-religious group as bartering chips. 

Death Marches | Holocaust Encyclopedia (ushmm.org)

Quote

The evacuations of the concentration camps had three purposes:

1. SS authorities did not want prisoners to fall into enemy hands alive to tell their stories to Allied and Soviet liberators
2. the SS thought they needed prisoners to maintain production of armaments wherever possible
3. some SS leaders, including Himmler, believed irrationally that they could use Jewish concentration camp prisoners as hostages to bargain for a separate peace in the west that would guarantee the survival of the Nazi regime.

 

[mtutiger]

4 hours ago, ewsieg said:

There hopefully be attempts to revert back to 2021 borders at a negotiation table to avoid more bloodshed.

Doesn't Vladimir Putin have a "choice" that he could avail himself of in order to avoid more bloodshed?

At the end of the day, he is the reason we are here. Not the Ukrainians defending their sovereignty (and the vast majority of whom wish to continue to do so)

Edited November 28, 2022 by mtutiger

[ewsieg]

10 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Doesn't Vladimir Putin have a "choice" that he could avail himself of in order to avoid more bloodshed?

At the end of the day, he is the reason we are here. Not the Ukrainians defending their sovereignty (and the vast majority of whom wish to continue to do so)

Absolutely, but the 'rah rah' attitude of some could also negate peace from coming sooner rather than later.  It's important to remember the cost of continued fighting.  On this site I advocated for Ukraine opening up talks with Russia months ago with the demand being that Russia withdraws to 2021 boundaries first and foremost.  That mere idea of something like that was viewed as a huge win for Putin.    

I understand the idea of wanting to punish Putin for what he did.  From the US perspective there are many pros we see in watching them falter as well.  I just want to remind folks there are cons as well.

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Absolutely, but the 'rah rah' attitude of some could also negate peace from coming sooner rather than later.  It's important to remember the cost of continued fighting. 

Those costs are not lost on me, nor do I suspect they are lost on anyone here.

But again, this war isn't happening because of Joe Biden or the US Government or Ukraine.... it's happening because Vladimir Putin made the choice to invade. And more than anyone else, he is the one who deterrmines how long this conflict lasts.

4 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

On this site I advocated for Ukraine opening up talks with Russia months ago with the demand being that Russia withdraws to 2021 boundaries first and foremost.  That mere idea of something like that was viewed as a huge win for Putin.    

Most Ukrainians would view that as a huge win for Putin as well. 

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Absolutely, but the 'rah rah' attitude of some could also negate peace from coming sooner rather than later.  It's important to remember the cost of continued fighting.  On this site I advocated for Ukraine opening up talks with Russia months ago with the demand being that Russia withdraws to 2021 boundaries first and foremost.  That mere idea of something like that was viewed as a huge win for Putin.    

I understand the idea of wanting to punish Putin for what he did.  From the US perspective there are many pros we see in watching them falter as well.  I just want to remind folks there are cons as well.

one problem is that now that Russia has  declared itself as the enemy of Ukrainian existance, the strategic importance to Ukraine of some of the territory captured pre 2021, and even including Crimea, has increased to a point far beyond what it was prior. Ukraine could tolerate a peaceful Russia in SE Ukraine, it can hardly tolerate a professed enemy of its existance commanding its access to the black sea. Russia's conduct has basically precluded going back to the status quo ante 2021. That is just the new reality.

Edited November 28, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

one problem is that now that Russia has  declared itself as the enemy of Ukrainian existance, the strategic importance to Ukraine of some of the territory captured pre 2021, and even including Crimea, has increased to a point far beyond what it was prior. Ukraine could tolerate a peaceful Russia in SE Ukraine, it can hardly tolerate a professed enemy of its existance commanding its access to the black sea. Russia's conduct has basically precluded going back to the status quo ante 2021. That is just the new reality.

100%. This conflict is existential for Ukraine... Putin himself framed it as such with how he characterized it before the invasion. And the existential nature of the conflict impacts the utility of a negotiation. 

Let's hypothetically say that one condition of a settled negotiation is that Putin must agree that Ukraine have a right to exist and that the Russian government would respect its sovereignty (which should be the absolute bare-minimum of conditions): 

1. Does anyone here feel confident he says "Yes"? (I don't)

2. Even in the event of a "Yes", given how frequently Putin has broken agreements and lied over the years, who would believe him? (I wouldn't)

That's the problem, if the Russian leader can't even be believed to be interested in the bare minimum requirements that should be required of a negotiation, the mere right of Ukraine to exist, it's hard to understand the point of negotiations and makes it easier to understand why Ukraine wouldn't be interested in them.

Edited November 28, 2022 by mtutiger

[Tigeraholic1]

 

 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

....  On this site I advocated for Ukraine opening up talks with Russia months ago with the demand being that Russia withdraws to 2021 boundaries first and foremost...

The Ukrainians do not agree with your take.

It's as simple as that.

[romad1]

There is a lot of history to suggest that DMZs and divided territory are the result of outside sponsors growing tired of wars.   Still, the Ukrainians are not done.  We've done wonders with the small investment of tech in their war.  That experience will greatly assist our defense of Taiwan if we learn the right lessons.

[ewsieg]

Wait, so let's say Russia used a negotiation to get to an off ramp on this war and got out of it nothing outside of let's say countries agreed to drop (some) sanctions once the full retreat was complete, you'd have no contested area's within what was considered Ukraine in 2021, which actually wasn't the case in 2021, you'd have full Ukraine sovereignty, you'd have the world knowing that Russia essentially just retreated with their tale between their legs, and you'd have Ukraine being able to build back their country that they fought for and Russia would know that Ukraine has the support of the world going forward.

That's not enough?

Instead the correct answer is what then?  This war has to continue until Russia has a government change?

[ewsieg]

19 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

 

 

 

17 hours ago, romad1 said:

There is a lot of history to suggest that DMZs and divided territory are the result of outside sponsors growing tired of wars.   Still, the Ukrainians are not done.  We've done wonders with the small investment of tech in their war.  That experience will greatly assist our defense of Taiwan if we learn the right lessons.

Bingo!

Let's ignore Ukrainian losses while propping up Russian losses for propaganda.  Really keep the population excited that while we truly do want Ukraine to win, ultimately no matter what losses they have, we will win.  It'll help us in the long run, so keep fighting Ukraine.  No mercy!  Continue to fight until we get everything we want!!!!   Everyone knows that the only way to achieve peace is you annihilate your enemy, peace can not come unless you get everything you want.  Look what happened when we negotiated with Germany...... Hitler!  Go back to our birth of our nation, we never stood a chance until we removed King George....oh wait, that didn't happen.  I'm sure there is something to explain that because we all know the only way to get peace is to get everything you want plus more.

[1984Echoes]

21 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Wait, so let's say Russia used a negotiation to get to an off ramp on this war and got out of it nothing outside of let's say countries agreed to drop (some) sanctions once the full retreat was complete, you'd have no contested area's within what was considered Ukraine in 2021, which actually wasn't the case in 2021, you'd have full Ukraine sovereignty, you'd have the world knowing that Russia essentially just retreated with their tale between their legs, and you'd have Ukraine being able to build back their country that they fought for and Russia would know that Ukraine has the support of the world going forward.

That's not enough?

Instead the correct answer is what then?  This war has to continue until Russia has a government change?

There's a simple answer to that:

If both Ukraine and Russia agree to those terms... You're in. Everyone would be on board.

But you have to get agreement from the two key parties... and right now Ukraine is hell-bent on getting back ALL of their territory, to Pre-2014, not just to 2014 borders. That may change... but... we'll see...

It's all on Ukraine and Russia right now though... to come to terms with what they can agree upon as a resolution to this war...

[mtutiger]

43 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Wait, so let's say Russia used a negotiation to get to an off ramp on this war and got out of it nothing outside of let's say countries agreed to drop (some) sanctions once the full retreat was complete, you'd have no contested area's within what was considered Ukraine in 2021, which actually wasn't the case in 2021, you'd have full Ukraine sovereignty, you'd have the world knowing that Russia essentially just retreated with their tale between their legs, and you'd have Ukraine being able to build back their country that they fought for and Russia would know that Ukraine has the support of the world going forward.

That's not enough?

Instead the correct answer is what then?  This war has to continue until Russia has a government change?

You are aware that, as of 2021, both Ukraine and almost the entire international community considers Ukraine's borders to be everything that it had pre-2014, right? So, if one is proposing that the Russia be entitled control of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk, that is not factually "nothing".... that's a significant concession.

Either way, your hypothetical elides what was discussed above, the absolute barest of bare minimum concessions that should be required of the Russian government: the recognition that Ukraine has a right to exist and self determination. Vladimir Putin, at the outset of the war, declared that they didn't. Until there's a signal on that barest of bare minimums, why would Ukraine be interested in negotiating with them?

Edited November 29, 2022 by mtutiger

[1984Echoes]

30 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Bingo!

Let's ignore Ukrainian losses while ...

No one is ignoring Ukrainian losses...

But you keep framing this as WE are going to determine when to end this war...

It is not US.

Ukraine itself is willing to incur additional pain, freezing winters, loss of life... in order to get back Crimea and all the rest of their territory.

You want an end to this war?

Then either: Get Russia to back out of all Ukrainian territories... OR get Ukraine to agree it's time to come to some kind of settlement with Russia; which, BTW, Ukraine believes that Russia/ Putin will NOT compromise and therefore it is useless, at this point, to negotiate.

At some point, one side or the other is going to have to give in... but neither side is there yet...

And neither you nor anyone else in this world is going to compel either side to do what YOU want.

[romad1]

36 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

 

Bingo!

Let's ignore Ukrainian losses while propping up Russian losses for propaganda.  Really keep the population excited that while we truly do want Ukraine to win, ultimately no matter what losses they have, we will win.  It'll help us in the long run, so keep fighting Ukraine.  No mercy!  Continue to fight until we get everything we want!!!!   Everyone knows that the only way to achieve peace is you annihilate your enemy, peace can not come unless you get everything you want.  Look what happened when we negotiated with Germany...... Hitler!  Go back to our birth of our nation, we never stood a chance until we removed King George....oh wait, that didn't happen.  I'm sure there is something to explain that because we all know the only way to get peace is to get everything you want plus more.

Ignore?  I'm sorry but nobody is ignoring the war crimes and egregious violations of international law.   

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No one is ignoring Ukrainian losses...

But you keep framing this as WE are going to determine when to end this war...

It is not US.

Ukraine itself is willing to incur additional pain, freezing winters, loss of life... in order to get back Crimea and all the rest of their territory.

You want an end to this war?

Then either: Get Russia to back out of all Ukrainian territories... OR get Ukraine to agree it's time to come to some kind of settlement with Russia; which, BTW, Ukraine believes that Russia/ Putin will NOT compromise and therefore it is useless, at this point, to negotiate.

At some point, one side or the other is going to have to give in... but neither side is there yet...

And neither you nor anyone else in this world is going to compel either side to do what YOU want.

100%. Americans tend to think the world revolves around us, but it doesn't.... not to diminish the support that we have given Ukraine and the impact that it has had on the success of their fight, but the idea that we can just end this or miracle up peace kinda ignores the significant differences between the two parties in this fight. And in particular, how one side literally has signaled that it doesn't believe the other side should exist and declared ahead of the invasion that it's goal was to decapitate the existing government in Ukraine who would be party to any future negotiation.

It's hard to have a successful negotiation under those circumstances.

Edited November 29, 2022 by mtutiger

[romad1]

And why should Ukraine stop now when Russia is a cardboard cutout of an Army waiting for the door to be kicked in this Spring?   Why deny them their right to a victory? 

[ewsieg]

All I've been calling for is a push to get to a negotiation table to see if either side is there.  Anytime I've mention that, i'm reminded that it's akin to appeasement and didn't I learn anything from Hitler.  

Add in the fact that there are legitimate reasons why some would have a vested interest in a long term proxy war and it makes me worry that we may miss out on an opportunity to see Russia leave all land (except Crimea, that is noted) and help ensure Ukraine sovereignty without more bloodshed.

At this time, I don't see Russia stopping now, which I wholeheartedly agree that means Ukraine won't nor should stop now either.  This war will grind to a halt in terms of the battle lines and Russia is going to spend the Winter bombing.  Likely we didn't miss a chance recently as Ukraine's offensive again showed how weak this Russian army is, but I wish it would have been entertained, at least a little bit more openly.

Russia will regroup and I suspect this Winter's bombings will take a toll on many Ukrainians, but if Ukraine comes out strong again in the spring, that's when I hope an additional push towards peace is offered.  If Russia tries to sell that it has regrouped and takes losses early, maybe that would be the finally push needed for the Kremlin to push back on Putin.

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

All I've been calling for is a push to get to a negotiation table to see if either side is there.  Anytime I've mention that, i'm reminded that it's akin to appeasement and didn't I learn anything from Hitler.  

Add in the fact that there are legitimate reasons why some would have a vested interest in a long term proxy war and it makes me worry that we may miss out on an opportunity to see Russia leave all land (except Crimea, that is noted) and help ensure Ukraine sovereignty without more bloodshed.

At this time, I don't see Russia stopping now, which I wholeheartedly agree that means Ukraine won't nor should stop now either.  This war will grind to a halt in terms of the battle lines and Russia is going to spend the Winter bombing.  Likely we didn't miss a chance recently as Ukraine's offensive again showed how weak this Russian army is, but I wish it would have been entertained, at least a little bit more openly.

Russia will regroup and I suspect this Winter's bombings will take a toll on many Ukrainians, but if Ukraine comes out strong again in the spring, that's when I hope an additional push towards peace is offered.  If Russia tries to sell that it has regrouped and takes losses early, maybe that would be the finally push needed for the Kremlin to push back on Putin.

They do negotiate.  They have regular prisoner exchanges.   They have the grain deal.   

[ewsieg]

2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

And why should Ukraine stop now when Russia is a cardboard cutout of an Army waiting for the door to be kicked in this Spring?   Why deny them their right to a victory? 

Again, what is victory?  If they retake all of their land (including Crimea) by force, they'll still have a neighbor that has stated they should not exist, right?  So what if they push into Russia and Russia waves the white flag.  What if Russia agrees never to invade Ukraine again?  They've made agreements before, how can you trust them?  

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Again, what is victory?  If they retake all of their land (including Crimea) by force, they'll still have a neighbor that has stated they should not exist, right?  So what if they push into Russia and Russia waves the white flag.  What if Russia agrees never to invade Ukraine again?  They've made agreements before, how can you trust them?  

You wouldn't trust them and you would keep your defenses hardened against future invasion.

Either way, that is victory, and that is what the actual Ukrainians appear to want.... and at this point, the conditions for a negotiation do not exist. Talking about a push for negotiations over and over doesn't make the gulf between the two sides any closer... it requires actual movement from the parties at war.

Edited November 29, 2022 by mtutiger

[Jim Cowan]

I don't see anyone in here with a rah rah attitude.  I see a lot of people who are incensed at the deliberate murder of civilians in apartment buildings, and who are pleased when Russia's military fuckups are not able to overrun the country the way they expected to.  Is that what is meant by rah rah?

[ewsieg]

30 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No one is ignoring Ukrainian losses...

But you keep framing this as WE are going to determine when to end this war...

It is not US.

Ukraine itself is willing to incur additional pain, freezing winters, loss of life... in order to get back Crimea and all the rest of their territory.

You want an end to this war?

Then either: Get Russia to back out of all Ukrainian territories... OR get Ukraine to agree it's time to come to some kind of settlement with Russia; which, BTW, Ukraine believes that Russia/ Putin will NOT compromise and therefore it is useless, at this point, to negotiate.

At some point, one side or the other is going to have to give in... but neither side is there yet...

And neither you nor anyone else in this world is going to compel either side to do what YOU want.

You guys seem to forget that Ukraine is already conquered if the US didn't get involved.  We absolutely were a vital role in determining that this war did not end quickly.  We are still a vital role going forward.  

You seem to equate everything I say to appeasement or chalk it up as there is simply nothing we can do.  Like we are complete bystanders.  I have no problems putting more pressure on Russia, heck, why stop at Russia.  Put India in the spotlight for how they are getting around sanctions with Russia.  Feel free to go after everyone with all tools possible to put as much pressure on Russia as possible.

[romad1]

I would bet you don't support granting Ukraine NATO or EU membership because it will complicate Russia's warmongering.