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Where Do Things End With Vlad? (h/t romad1)


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4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Sweden says that they WON'T be able to meet each and every one of Erdogan's demands.

Biden needs to call Erdogan right now and tell him to quit fucking around and let them into NATO NOW!

some of the push back from Sweden was smart.  I think Turkey wants concessions from Sweden and they pushed Sweden too far.  Turkey just needs to recognize that they get nothing from Sweden if they play too hard.

That's my happy spin.  My sad spin is that Turkey is insane and doesn't care for any deal because they just hate the Kurds that much.

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5 minutes ago, romad1 said:

some of the push back from Sweden was smart.  I think Turkey wants concessions from Sweden and they pushed Sweden too far.  Turkey just needs to recognize that they get nothing from Sweden if they play too hard.

That's my happy spin.  My sad spin is that Turkey is insane and doesn't care for any deal because they just hate the Kurds that much.

I prefer the happy spin...

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4 hours ago, romad1 said:

Goofus and his Army

 

I think it was on the 'War On The Rocks' podcast - not positive, but at any rate I think it was Michael Kofman who was asked the question about why more heads haven't rolled in the Russian high command as the price of its incompetence. His answer was that in Putin's world, that of a non-hereditary autocrat, loyalty is far more important than competence. Putin will bear failure as long as it's coupled to continued loyalty. Because to start defenestrating loyal commanders it to potentially undercut the loyalty of those remaining, which strikes at the stability of his power, which is ultimately far more important to him than any short term progress of the war.

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7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I think it was on the 'War On The Rocks' podcast - not positive, but at any rate I think it was Michael Kofman who was asked the question about why more heads haven't rolled in the Russian high command as the price of its incompetence. His answer was that in Putin's world, that of a non-hereditary autocrat, loyalty is far more important than competence. Putin will bear failure as long as it's coupled to continued loyalty. Because to start defenestrating loyal commanders it to potentially undercut the loyalty of those remaining, which strikes at the stability of his power, which is ultimately far more important to him than any short term progress of the war.

Concur. 

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Firing on an apartment building with a weapon used to fire at aircraft carriers…. 
 

War crime.Another one. This is horrific.

Is Russia even making the ridiculous claim that this APARTMENT BUILDING, loaded with FAMILIES was somehow a military outbase??

Fucking animals. 

Give the Ukrainians everything they need to protect themselves… and get it into their hands asap.

And House Republicans who are choosing the Russian narrative?? More shameful every day.

 

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If there are any elected politicians choosing the Russian narrative, than yes, that's shameful.  Most that are against sending weapons are doing it on two fronts, mostly 1) it's not our war and 2) our own national security.  

I think there are legitimate reasons why you can argue they are wrong, but turning it into 'choosing the russian narrative' I think does damage against legitimate debate.

The Navy fleet commander recently came out and said soon we will be making the determination whether we chose to arm ourselves or arm Ukraine.  The Navy Secretary tried to walk it back a bit, but essentially just put the blame on defense contractors for not producing arms quick enough.  Hopefully that gives some context to the extent we have supported this war already.  

In a perfect world, we could march in and overthrow Putin tomorrow, and continue that march to Beijing. No resistance and help install two future great democracies.  In the real world, going all in on Ukraine might mean we sacrifice Taiwan.

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The Putin thugs in the GOP and on the horseshoe left need to step back and understand that isolationism sells to the rubes but in a crunch we need alliances and those alliances need to be based on principles.  Just because the billionaire fueled McCarthy Republicans don't have any principles doesn't mean that the majority of the country doesn't root for Ukraine and understand that there but for the grace of God and the St. Javelin go us.

220px-Icon_Saint_Javelin.jpg

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3 hours ago, romad1 said:

The Putin thugs in the GOP and on the horseshoe left need to step back and understand that isolationism sells to the rubes but in a crunch we need alliances and those alliances need to be based on principles.  Just because the billionaire fueled McCarthy Republicans don't have any principles doesn't mean that the majority of the country doesn't root for Ukraine and understand that there but for the grace of God and the St. Javelin go us.

220px-Icon_Saint_Javelin.jpg

I'm absolutely rooting for Ukraine and personally I want to support them, but at the same time, I want to make sure I can support other allies like Taiwan.  There is an argument that a decisive victory in Ukraine supported by the US will deter China, but there absolutely are military concerns about our actual ability to assist in defending Taiwan should it be required and this Ukraine war has an affect on that.  So blindly rah rah'ing into escalated battle with Ukraine has all the right 'feelz', it doesn't necessarily mean it's the right thing to do.

As a side note, I still love the narrative by the left that scoffs at GOP'ers that point to Obama being president as proof America is not racist, but than points out Zelensky is jewish, so obviously Ukraine doesn't have a Nazi issue.  We have the same several hundred racist POS that march in various cities and that's proof we have a white nationalist issue, meanwhile Ukraine has political parties with leaders that publicly claim all jews should be exterminated from Ukraine or other parliament members that don't deny the holocaust, but refer to it as a 'bright period'.   Granted while I doubt we'll get a consensus that Ukraine has these types of issues, i'm sure we can agree that republicans are losing sight of the whole picture and focusing on some small potatoes.  That said, if we can agree on that, what does that mean democrats are doing when they do it here?

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12 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I'm absolutely rooting for Ukraine and personally I want to support them, but at the same time, I want to make sure I can support other allies like Taiwan.  There is an argument that a decisive victory in Ukraine supported by the US will deter China, but there absolutely are military concerns about our actual ability to assist in defending Taiwan should it be required and this Ukraine war has an affect on that...

No it doesn't.

Taiwan is nearly 100% naval support.

Ukraine is military supplies and economic support.

One does not have an effect on the other.

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16 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

As a side note....

Sure, there are bad actors in Ukraine, it's a nation of 40 million people. And there is always a possibilty that at some point - should Ukraine preserve it's independence, it back slides on the quality of it's civil society. But you can't be paralyzed by every possibility either. The best you can do is look at who is running the store now and how, and all in all they appear to be a reasonable client to support. 

I'm less impressed with the argument about somehow depleting our military stocks for a Taiwan conflict. Taiwan would look nothing like this. If China moves on Taiwan it will be a total naval blockade to cut them off and force them to capitulate, not a land battle. So the resources in question are going to be those of the US Navy, USAF. not tanks and land warfare equip, and it will be a direct US/Chinese air/naval confrontation rather than client supported warfare as in Ukraine. 

EDIT: LOL - 84 types faster than I do......

Edited by gehringer_2
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8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No it doesn't.

Taiwan is nearly 100% naval support.

Ukraine is military supplies and economic support.

One does not have an effect on the other.

 

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm less impressed with the argument about somehow depleting our military stocks for a Taiwan conflict. Taiwan would look nothing like this. If China moves on Taiwan it will be a total naval blockade to cut them off and force them to capitulate, not a land battle. So the resources in question are going to be those of the US Navy, USAF. not tanks and land warfare equip, and it will be a direct US/Chinese air/naval confrontation rather than client supported warfare as in Ukraine. 

EDIT: LOL - 84 types faster than I do......

I'm not going to lie, I'm not an expert on these things.  I'm just going off of a statement made by the Fleet commander and like I said, somewhat walked back, but somewhat agreed to, by the Navy Secretary.  But again, I am no expert, so it's 1984 and Gehringer vs the Navy Fleet Commander and the Navy Secretary.  I do know math though, and 2 = 2, so I guess we have to call it a draw.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/navy-secretary-says-that-us-navy-may-need-to-choose-between-arming-itself-or-ukraine/ar-AA16eUtl

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