romad1 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, ewsieg said: Looks like mgoblog is just getting around to tweeting it. Looks like they did this in 22. small phone issue. My bad. I think Bryan Cook was answering a today question with 2022 information and I missed that detail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: This is spot on the difference. China is not going to destroy Taiwan to win it. The military threat is real but it's primary objective to create a sense of pressure and inevitability that will lead to an outcome more like Hong Kong. China has already shown us their preferred modus operandi. Rational Actor Model might cost some people in policy making world their jobs. The PRC's reasoning for looking and turning inward and going Stalinist/Soviet is that Xi thinks it is the only way he can ensure the survival of his regime. Been studying various war games and modeling and simulation on a cross straits war. The PRC has invested in some things that are essential to their planning. They have a large amphibious force, a large airmobile/airborne force to land on Taiwan. They have a large fleet to protect the landings and a large ballistic missile force designed to rain destruction on Guam, Taiwan, Okinawa, the northern Phillippines and perhaps if they are accurate enough a couple US carrier battle groups. Most US run war games taking all these things into account predict US/allied wins although with heavy casualties. Particularly if a US carrier is hit and sinks. What the PRC does not have is a military tradition. Their last war was 1979 in northern Vietnam. They will have a hell of a time trying to do things as complex as amphibious and airborne landings. Taiwan unfortunately has never actually fought a war either. The good news is that the US has special forces on the ground along with Australian special forces. The alliance against the PRC will be robust with Japan, South Korea, Phillippines, Vietnam and others contributing to the fight. Every time the US intercepts a ballistic missile with supposed hypersonic warheads in Ukraine an angel gets its wings (i.e., demonstrates to China that their plan is no sure thing). Anyway... if you think the US and allies are going to lose...nah. If you think it will be bloodless...nah too. Is this in China's interest, well, they want to break out of the first island chain to be a proper superpower. The Kaiser's Germany wanted to break out into the Atlantic to be one too...didn't work out because Imperial Germany didn't have a dominant fleet nor did it have a naval tradition. Even if their ships were slightly better than the British fleet's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) 36 minutes ago, romad1 said: Is this in China's interest, well, they want to break out of the first island chain to be a proper superpower. Xi was educated in Russia. From that I will suppose he internalized european in even mongol cultural DNA about power and statehood that continue to drive him, and from that standpoint your analysis of China as a wannabe imperial power in European historical terms is spot on. I'm still not so persuaded that because Xi sees the world through the lens of a largely Russian understanding that is enough to move a 3000 yr old culture into a form of military imperialism that it is hundreds of years removed from. Clearly you hope for the best but must prepare for the worst, so whether what I believe about China will turn out to be true or not is immaterial to the fact that the threat has be met in the terms you describe. Or in short form, there is a difference between predicting the future and preparing for it. Edited March 29 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Must be nice for Putin to have these idiots rushing to accelerate the end times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, romad1 said: Must be nice for Putin to have these idiots rushing to accelerate the end times the thing that is so ridiculous about Revelation 'interpreters' is that it's first and clearest allegory is about overcoming Roman persecution. Rome, the city of 7 hills (beast with seven horns etc) and the comedy is that pagan Rome was never defeated by Christianity in any kind of great battle at Armageddon, it simply converted! Sort of peacefully. No battles, no horsemen. So John, or whoever it was, missed the boat right out of the gate. If they had truncated Revelation after the letters to the 7 churches they would have saved the modern world a lot of grief, but apparently eschatology was already too popular 3 centuries in. Edited April 12 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 14 hours ago, CMRivdogs said: After all, we need the keep Israel going so that Iran and Russia will “come against Israel” so “God” can “wipe them out,” after which “there will be 1,000 years of perfect peace, no presidential elections, no fake news, none of all of this nonsense.” Instead, there will be “one king, and one leader, Jesus Christ the Son of God. One law, it will be his law.” Can’t stop it, might as well lay back and enjoy it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 ok Stavropol is in the middle of the northern Caucasus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 LFG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 More importantly...and this cannot be stressed enough. Milei is a clown but he's definitely making a great move for 21st century civilization by withdrawing Argentina's application to BRICS This is good with the usual expectation that the next party in power in Argentina will be the former flavor of kleptocrats who seek greater and greater bailouts from China and whoever else is trying to make the United States feel pain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 and there it is https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224873.htm Its a bloody nose for Xi and Putin. Not one that they can't survive for sure but it spoils one of their spoilers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 I'm pretty amped up about overcoming the republic party FART tomorrow night and getting these kick ass folks in Ukraine some help, LFG!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 if I recall correctly from 3 days ago when I last played this game if you put your thumb to your forehead before everyone else you don't have to eat the FART so don't be last they go to the floor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 YES!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 (edited) Is there a vote tally out there? I'm curious where my rep voted. Edit, I see from his twitter he voted in favor, but used it to trash Biden's border policy, which is odd considering how that went down last month. Edited April 20 by Edman85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 20 hours ago, Edman85 said: Is there a vote tally out there? I'm curious where my rep voted. Edit, I see from his twitter he voted in favor, but used it to trash Biden's border policy, which is odd considering how that went down last month. He’s pandering to you, the constituent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Paywalled but starts very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 This is encouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, romad1 said: Paywalled but starts very well. Republicans could have the exact fascist state they want, and maybe even bloodier, if only they could figure out a way to dump Trump and find a standard bearer more palatable to normies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago well now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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